Most active commenters
  • FooBarBizBazz(5)
  • abduhl(3)

←back to thread

Decline in teen drug use continues, surprising experts

(arstechnica.com)
372 points pseudolus | 11 comments | 17 Dec 24 23:44 UTC | HN request time: 1.448s | source | bottom
Show context
oortoo ◴[20 Dec 24 19:38 UTC] No.42474210[source]▶
Another aspect here I think is the generalized fear and anxiety present in young people. Having spoken to some family members in the 15-18 age bracket, the message they seem to be receiving is that they are without a future... they won't be buying homes, they won't be getting high paying jobs, and that the system is not going to work in their favor. I think people of this age are uniquely feeling mortal and vulnerable in a way teens typically have not, causing them to be more hesitant to risk losing their mind which they may need to protect themselves down the road. But they also are modern teenagers, not only low in willpower but also coddled by their smartphones, which is why technology addiction is the go to "safer" alternative to habitual drug use.

Also, you typically need to be unsupervised with friends to get into drugs, something teenagers no longer have access to compared to 10-15 years ago. If we look at the social decline due to the pandemic, what made experts think these kids would bounce back? They are forever changed, and will forever be less social than other generations because they missed out on formative experiences.

replies(16): >>42474272 #>>42474450 #>>42474470 #>>42474483 #>>42474512 #>>42474523 #>>42475236 #>>42476592 #>>42476722 #>>42477427 #>>42477607 #>>42477613 #>>42478117 #>>42480226 #>>42481153 #>>42481583 #
fawley ◴[20 Dec 24 20:04 UTC] No.42474470[source]▶
First-time home owners have increased in age[0], the middle class is shrinking[1], education costs have vastly outpaced inflation[2] as have medical costs[3].

Perhaps the generalized fear is not so much about "coddling", but concrete realities. I do not envy them.

[0] https://www.axios.com/2023/11/20/american-housing-market-old... [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/20/how-the-a... [2] https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-co... [3] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-does-medical-i...

replies(5): >>42475769 #>>42477385 #>>42477588 #>>42479977 #>>42481033 #
kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 03:40 UTC] No.42477385[source]▶
More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0], real wages are increasing for the lower and middle class for the first time since 1970[1]. More people are leaving the workforce than anytime in history, creating high paying trade job openings at an unprecedented rate[2]. Health care costs are growing slower now than any prior decade[3].

Every generation has challenges and benefits. Framing the narrative can happen in any direction and the variance in group is bigger than the variance between.

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/09/05/how-gen-z-outpaces-past-...

[1] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/americans-wages-are...

[2] https://www.protectedincome.org/news/labor-day-peak-65-trade...

[3] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spe...

replies(4): >>42477420 #>>42477521 #>>42478223 #>>42479115 #
Uehreka ◴[21 Dec 24 04:19 UTC] No.42477521[source]▶
> More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0]

If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative, you’re gonna need to cite a better source than an outbrain-riddled webpage that tells me to “watch our video to find the lede we buried”. I’m not saying this isn’t true, but extraordinary claims require good sourcing and explanation.

replies(2): >>42477575 #>>42478033 #
9rx ◴[21 Dec 24 07:19 UTC] No.42478033[source]▶
> If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative

What do you see as the prevailing narrative? The one I see is homeownership itself, which suggests that homeownership has been seen as being hotly desirable. I strongly suspect we wouldn't have a homeownership narrative to speak of if ownership was unwanted. When something becomes unusually desirable like homeownership has, it is not unexpected to see an uptick in participation around it; in this case owning a home. Much of the urban age has been marked with the majority of the population being renters. Everyone wanting to own a home with such furor is historically unusual.

I expect homeownership has become so desirable as it has become seen as a way to build wealth. While, historically, housing only kept pace with inflation at best, real home values have risen by unfathomable amounts in the last decade or two. Which, again, attracts people willing to risk it all for a chance at some of that wealth opportunity. It would be unusual if said generational group had comparatively lower ownership rates given the "FOMO" aspect. People run away when prices are falling, not when they are rising.

Given the market we've watched, the extraordinary claim would be that Gen-Z has lower ownership rates compared to previous generations at the same age.

replies(2): >>42478527 #>>42479199 #
jasonkester ◴[21 Dec 24 09:28 UTC] No.42478527[source]▶
Well said. I remember making a spreadsheet in maybe 1995 laying out the math to compare the real costs and expected gains from buying vs. renting.

It mathed out about even. I decided to go with renting instead of buying, with the logic that the S&P didn’t need me to buy it a new roof every 15 years or to work in its garden every weekend.

It worked nicely too, growing the money that would otherwise have gone into mortgages and property tax, letting me take some of it out recently and buy a house with cash.

I don’t see much of this attitude in my younger friends now. But living cheap and saving does actually work.

replies(1): >>42478955 #
1. FooBarBizBazz ◴[21 Dec 24 11:10 UTC] No.42478955[source]▶
A 20% down mortgage is a 5x levered bet. Plus you can roll capital gains into new real estate. The S&P 500 cannot offer these advantages.
replies(2): >>42479939 #>>42480285 #
2. abduhl ◴[21 Dec 24 14:38 UTC] No.42479939[source]▶
With the proper mix of retirement accounts, options, and futures contracts it can. It can offer even more leverage if you want.
replies(2): >>42480019 #>>42486602 #
3. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 14:54 UTC] No.42480019[source]▶
The bigger win is the government subsidies and tax breaks.

You need very little on hand cash to get a very low interest rate. Much lower than asset loans at equivalent levels of wealth.

replies(1): >>42481155 #
4. lotsofpulp ◴[21 Dec 24 15:45 UTC] No.42480285[source]▶
A 5x levered bet with no prepayment penalty subsidized by future Americans, and it cannot be called and is non recourse in many states. And it provides shelter.
5. pitpatagain ◴[21 Dec 24 18:09 UTC] No.42481155{3}[source]▶
There is little tax break for home ownership currently with the SALT cap + high standard deduction. You get some break if you have a large enough mortgage or high enough interest rate but it has been very nerfed.
replies(1): >>42485913 #
6. FooBarBizBazz ◴[22 Dec 24 12:22 UTC] No.42485913{4}[source]▶
I know SALT went away, but there's still 1031 exchanges, which mean that "capital gains" can be tax free, which is a big deal in an inflationary environment. So long as the government keeps printing money (which it will), there's a de-facto wealth tax that only real estate avoids.
7. FooBarBizBazz ◴[22 Dec 24 14:43 UTC] No.42486602[source]▶
A retirement account is a ship in a bottle. You can't put much into it. The only way to make it huge is to take huge risks inside and have them work out. Which isn't a plan.

And -- options? The most leverage I can think of reasonably getting would be LEAPS (calls) and rolling them. But, even with LEAPS, you have limited timing flexibility, and are forced to realize more gains/losses.

There's nothing on par with a house. They're almost $1M everywhere now. You can't get that much into a retirement account when you're young.

replies(1): >>42488997 #
8. abduhl ◴[22 Dec 24 20:53 UTC] No.42488997{3}[source]▶
You can back door around $70k per year into a Roth currently I believe. I don’t know where you’re from, but few people would say that isn’t much.

And I’m not sure why you’re talking about LEAPS. Options are naturally leveraged: you have synthetic positions on [complicated Greeks math]*100 shares with every option. Theta is only one of the Greeks. Same with futures contracts re: natural leverage.

With respect to “bets” and having them go your way: dude you’re talking about a $200k investment on a property worth $1MM. It seems like your whole view on property ownership is premised on the idea that property values always go up no matter what. That’s no more a fundamental law of nature than the stock market going up, and a bet on the property value for a specific home in a specific location is probably riskier than a broad market fund options play.

I’m also not sure why you’re talking about the full price of a house? A $1MM house with 20% down means the comparator is 200k - you can't get that kind of cash together when you're young any more than you can get it into a retirement account. But to the extent you can, you can back door that into a Roth in 3 years, and you have plenty of stock/options/futures setups that will give you leverage to $1MM notional of exposure. And capital gains on that position are actually tax free by the way, no shenanigans required with 1031s and residential conversion or having to wait until you’re dead to get the tax benefits.

The bottom line is that buying property is rarely the best investment decision quantitatively because you can get equivalent (and often better) returns in the market while maintaining liquidity, meaning that you can almost always pivot into a house at a future date for cheaper (on an adjusted basis). But people FEEL good doing it, so the mainstream view is that owning a house should be a goal. Common sense oftentimes isn’t; owning vs renting is one of those times.

replies(1): >>42494444 #
9. FooBarBizBazz ◴[23 Dec 24 14:05 UTC] No.42494444{4}[source]▶
> You can back door around $70k per year into a Roth currently I believe.

You can only backdoor $7k/year into a Roth IRA. That isn't much.

If you have access to a qualifying 401k plan, you can mega-backdoor $46,000 into a Roth 401k. Many 401k plans do not support this, however. In practice, a plan is unlikely to support it if the company doesn't give a 401k match (it's basically impossible for a plan to meet the "non-discrimination" requirement without matching).

> And I’m not sure why you’re talking about LEAPS. [...] Theta is only one of the Greeks.

Because the effect of theta is least for LEAPS. They're the "most share-like" options.

> Options are naturally leveraged: you have synthetic positions on [complicated Greeks math]*100 shares with every option.

I agree that the "natural leverage" is the reason for the appeal, but the 100x multiplier is priced in.

In practice, IIRC (it's been a while) I've found that, with long-dated calls near the money (ideally a little bit in the money, for lower risk), you end up with about 2x leverage. The "100% loss" downside sort of gets "balanced" (debatable) by "2x upside". In the past I've felt really smart doing this until it's blown up in my face. Given the multiplicative nature of gains/losses, I'm not sure it's a good deal at all.

> Same with futures contracts re: natural leverage.

Curious about this. I suspect that it's a sucker's game, but wouldn't mind learning more.

replies(1): >>42496336 #
10. abduhl ◴[23 Dec 24 18:09 UTC] No.42496336{5}[source]▶
>> [Roth IRA stuff]

Debating the availability of a Roth backdoor is something that's orthogonal to the discussion. I agree that your $46k number is the correct number, so adjust the numbers in my prior post as appropriate (e.g., it'll take 5 years to get to $200k in a retirement account). I still assert my primary conclusion: buying property is generally not the best option on a purely financial basis.

>> [Options stuff]

I disagree with your view that LEAPS are the "most share-like" options. Short dated deep in the money calls are essentially a synthetic stock position, and they are the most share-like in that they will move nearly 1:1 with stock price whereas LEAPS do not move 1:1 with stock price fluctuations because of time attenuation. If leverage is what you want then there are probably better options than LEAPS (rolling 3 month to 6 month positions maybe) because you pay out the nose in terms of time value on LEAPS.

replies(1): >>42502528 #
11. FooBarBizBazz ◴[24 Dec 24 15:32 UTC] No.42502528{6}[source]▶
Interesting points about those calls: "Go shorter but deeper in the money, and roll more often". Would be a pain to do by hand, unless you enjoy it as a hobby. Makes me think about moving to Interactive Brokers so I can play with the API. Probably won't happen, but who knows; I might get bored one month.