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Decline in teen drug use continues, surprising experts

(arstechnica.com)
349 points pseudolus | 19 comments | 17 Dec 24 23:44 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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oortoo ◴[20 Dec 24 19:38 UTC] No.42474210[source]▶
Another aspect here I think is the generalized fear and anxiety present in young people. Having spoken to some family members in the 15-18 age bracket, the message they seem to be receiving is that they are without a future... they won't be buying homes, they won't be getting high paying jobs, and that the system is not going to work in their favor. I think people of this age are uniquely feeling mortal and vulnerable in a way teens typically have not, causing them to be more hesitant to risk losing their mind which they may need to protect themselves down the road. But they also are modern teenagers, not only low in willpower but also coddled by their smartphones, which is why technology addiction is the go to "safer" alternative to habitual drug use.

Also, you typically need to be unsupervised with friends to get into drugs, something teenagers no longer have access to compared to 10-15 years ago. If we look at the social decline due to the pandemic, what made experts think these kids would bounce back? They are forever changed, and will forever be less social than other generations because they missed out on formative experiences.

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fawley ◴[20 Dec 24 20:04 UTC] No.42474470[source]▶
First-time home owners have increased in age[0], the middle class is shrinking[1], education costs have vastly outpaced inflation[2] as have medical costs[3].

Perhaps the generalized fear is not so much about "coddling", but concrete realities. I do not envy them.

[0] https://www.axios.com/2023/11/20/american-housing-market-old... [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/20/how-the-a... [2] https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-co... [3] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-does-medical-i...

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1. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 03:40 UTC] No.42477385[source]▶
More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0], real wages are increasing for the lower and middle class for the first time since 1970[1]. More people are leaving the workforce than anytime in history, creating high paying trade job openings at an unprecedented rate[2]. Health care costs are growing slower now than any prior decade[3].

Every generation has challenges and benefits. Framing the narrative can happen in any direction and the variance in group is bigger than the variance between.

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/09/05/how-gen-z-outpaces-past-...

[1] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/americans-wages-are...

[2] https://www.protectedincome.org/news/labor-day-peak-65-trade...

[3] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spe...

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2. lotsofpulp ◴[21 Dec 24 03:49 UTC] No.42477420[source]▶
[0] needs to breakout what proportion of the homeowners received help from parents, either via free rent or cash.
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3. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 04:18 UTC] No.42477516[source]▶
[0] in the parent comment needs to note most of the increase comes from older people living and staying in their houses longer rather than dying, moving to facilities or in with family.
4. Uehreka ◴[21 Dec 24 04:19 UTC] No.42477521[source]▶
> More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0]

If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative, you’re gonna need to cite a better source than an outbrain-riddled webpage that tells me to “watch our video to find the lede we buried”. I’m not saying this isn’t true, but extraordinary claims require good sourcing and explanation.

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5. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 04:35 UTC] No.42477575[source]▶
Here is the underlying dataset https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-cps/d030.V11.0

Redfin did the analysis quoted https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation...

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6. 9rx ◴[21 Dec 24 07:19 UTC] No.42478033[source]▶
> If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative

What do you see as the prevailing narrative? The one I see is homeownership itself, which suggests that homeownership has been seen as being hotly desirable. I strongly suspect we wouldn't have a homeownership narrative to speak of if ownership was unwanted. When something becomes unusually desirable like homeownership has, it is not unexpected to see an uptick in participation around it; in this case owning a home. Much of the urban age has been marked with the majority of the population being renters. Everyone wanting to own a home with such furor is historically unusual.

I expect homeownership has become so desirable as it has become seen as a way to build wealth. While, historically, housing only kept pace with inflation at best, real home values have risen by unfathomable amounts in the last decade or two. Which, again, attracts people willing to risk it all for a chance at some of that wealth opportunity. It would be unusual if said generational group had comparatively lower ownership rates given the "FOMO" aspect. People run away when prices are falling, not when they are rising.

Given the market we've watched, the extraordinary claim would be that Gen-Z has lower ownership rates compared to previous generations at the same age.

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7. Tade0 ◴[21 Dec 24 08:23 UTC] No.42478223[source]▶
Regarding home ownership: they only started with a higher rate. It's too early to say, but considering that growth has stagnated, they're on track to become the generation that will own the least homes.
8. jasonkester ◴[21 Dec 24 09:28 UTC] No.42478527{3}[source]▶
Well said. I remember making a spreadsheet in maybe 1995 laying out the math to compare the real costs and expected gains from buying vs. renting.

It mathed out about even. I decided to go with renting instead of buying, with the logic that the S&P didn’t need me to buy it a new roof every 15 years or to work in its garden every weekend.

It worked nicely too, growing the money that would otherwise have gone into mortgages and property tax, letting me take some of it out recently and buy a house with cash.

I don’t see much of this attitude in my younger friends now. But living cheap and saving does actually work.

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9. cj ◴[21 Dec 24 09:55 UTC] No.42478649{3}[source]▶
> The homeownership rate for 26-year-old Gen Zers is 30%, below 31% for millennials at 26, 32.5% of Gen Xers at 26, and 35.6% of boomers at 26.

Unless you're specifically 26 years old, I suppose? This analysis seems far from scientific and cherry picks data in strange ways.

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10. FooBarBizBazz ◴[21 Dec 24 11:10 UTC] No.42478955{4}[source]▶
A 20% down mortgage is a 5x levered bet. Plus you can roll capital gains into new real estate. The S&P 500 cannot offer these advantages.
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11. lazyasciiart ◴[21 Dec 24 11:45 UTC] No.42479115[source]▶
> Health care costs are growing slower now than any prior decade[3].

I don’t see any data on that page supporting this claim. The current decade is growing much faster than the previous one, and they only show data up to 2023.

> Health spending increased by 7.5% from 2022 to 2023, faster than the 4.6% increase from 2021 to 2022. The growth in total health spending from 2022 to 2023 is well above the average annual growth rate of the 2010s (4.1%).

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12. lazyasciiart ◴[21 Dec 24 11:52 UTC] No.42479134{4}[source]▶
The fall in genz ownership rates is also quite interesting: I guess they weren’t buying during the pandemic?
13. george_w_kush ◴[21 Dec 24 12:06 UTC] No.42479199{3}[source]▶
The claim isn’t that homeownership is undesirable to Gen Z, but that a lower percentage of Gen Z owns homes compared to previous generations regardless of the specific reason. I think in this case the most likely cause is the increase in prices is causing houses to be unaffordable to Gen Z, despite their desire to own houses.
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14. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 14:32 UTC] No.42479913[source]▶
I should have said compared to gdp.
15. abduhl ◴[21 Dec 24 14:38 UTC] No.42479939{5}[source]▶
With the proper mix of retirement accounts, options, and futures contracts it can. It can offer even more leverage if you want.
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16. kasey_junk ◴[21 Dec 24 14:54 UTC] No.42480019{6}[source]▶
The bigger win is the government subsidies and tax breaks.

You need very little on hand cash to get a very low interest rate. Much lower than asset loans at equivalent levels of wealth.

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17. 9rx ◴[21 Dec 24 15:25 UTC] No.42480163{4}[source]▶
There may be some temporal confusion here. Gen-Z rates of homeownership has stalled out over the past year or so. Prices are no longer rising like they once were, with fears over impending decline, so the desire is not what it once was. It may be fair to say that the narrative has shifted to "too expensive", but as they loaded up early when prices were rising at unprecedented rates there is a big head start at play. They don't have to buy any more homes for a while to maintain the lead.
18. lotsofpulp ◴[21 Dec 24 15:45 UTC] No.42480285{5}[source]▶
A 5x levered bet with no prepayment penalty subsidized by future Americans, and it cannot be called and is non recourse in many states. And it provides shelter.
19. pitpatagain ◴[21 Dec 24 18:09 UTC] No.42481155{7}[source]▶
There is little tax break for home ownership currently with the SALT cap + high standard deduction. You get some break if you have a large enough mortgage or high enough interest rate but it has been very nerfed.