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Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)

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399 points seanhunter | 1 comments | 19 Nov 24 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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swayvil ◴[19 Nov 24 14:50 UTC] No.42184011[source]▶
This is clearly the law of conservation of reality at work.

Likewise, when you hear a word for the first time suddenly you hear it five times in a row. Or if you see somebody once you suddenly start running into them all over the place.

It's because it's cheaper to repeat past realities than to create new ones.

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Vecr ◴[19 Nov 24 14:52 UTC] No.42184035[source]▶
I don't think that's true, isn't this tested in a way to obviate that psychological effect? I've done coin-flipping in computer simulations and that doesn't happen. (And yes it was a bit more realistic vs a single element, multiple linked elements flip more realistically. No air resistance simulation though.)
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swayvil ◴[19 Nov 24 15:03 UTC] No.42184156[source]▶
Oh sure, let's doubt the evidence of our senses in favor of convention. That's good science.
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Vecr ◴[19 Nov 24 15:08 UTC] No.42184213[source]▶
How good are you at Bayesian statistics, conditionalization, and understanding various biases? The simulation here should be good (it's better than mine).
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swayvil ◴[19 Nov 24 15:29 UTC] No.42184514[source]▶
Next you'll cite Bible verse.
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pugets ◴[19 Nov 24 15:44 UTC] No.42184721[source]▶
“We toss the coin, but it is the Lord who controls its decision.” - Proverbs 16:33 (TLB)
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1. chrismorgan ◴[19 Nov 24 16:04 UTC] No.42184955[source]▶
The very verse I was about to post! (Though I was going to quote it as more customarily and literally translated, “The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the LORD.”)

To add interest: there are plenty of people who firmly believe this, and make decisions by the drawing of lots, in various possible forms. I’m one. It’s taken me in interesting and unexpected directions this year.