Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)

This is clearly the law of conservation of reality at work.

Likewise, when you hear a word for the first time suddenly you hear it five times in a row. Or if you see somebody once you suddenly start running into them all over the place.

It's because it's cheaper to repeat past realities than to create new ones.

I don't think that's true, isn't this tested in a way to obviate that psychological effect? I've done coin-flipping in computer simulations and that doesn't happen. (And yes it was a bit more realistic vs a single element, multiple linked elements flip more realistically. No air resistance simulation though.)

Or how when you look for something it always ends up in the last place you look, if it weren't there would have been some number of places you looked that were completely unnecessary.

Oh sure, let's doubt the evidence of our senses in favor of convention. That's good science.

How good are you at Bayesian statistics, conditionalization, and understanding various biases? The simulation here should be good (it's better than mine).

Does this explain the rarity of antimatter?

Next you'll cite Bible verse.

I don't think Bible verses are related.

There are multiple ways to ground Bayesian statistics without resorting to grounding in coin flips. The simplest one isn't that robust, there's a mathematical one but it's abstract and uses calculus, there's a quantum one but I'm not even going there, and there's a highly robust one that's too complex for me to understand.

“We toss the coin, but it is the Lord who controls its decision.” - Proverbs 16:33 (TLB)

The very verse I was about to post! (Though I was going to quote it as more customarily and literally translated, “The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the LORD.”)

To add interest: there are plenty of people who firmly believe this, and make decisions by the drawing of lots, in various possible forms. I’m one. It’s taken me in interesting and unexpected directions this year.

Personally, I like to keep looking for the thing long after I've found it simply to prove the adage wrong. My keys weren't in the last place I looked because I checked three more places after I had them in my hand.

So if computation in the enclosing universe got more expensive, they'd enable more aggressive optimizations, and we'd see the effect get stronger?

I don't think this is a real, non-psychological effect in general. For this coin flipping of this very particular method, yes the physics simulations look right, but in general it's not something I think exists, or would even reduce the compute needed for the universe.

That's a dangerous game to play. What if you find the thing a second time?

Aye, always at the ready with His noodly appendage.