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392 points seanhunter | 8 comments | | HN request time: 1.455s | source | bottom
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swayvil ◴[] No.42184011[source]
This is clearly the law of conservation of reality at work.

Likewise, when you hear a word for the first time suddenly you hear it five times in a row. Or if you see somebody once you suddenly start running into them all over the place.

It's because it's cheaper to repeat past realities than to create new ones.

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1. Vecr ◴[] No.42184035[source]
I don't think that's true, isn't this tested in a way to obviate that psychological effect? I've done coin-flipping in computer simulations and that doesn't happen. (And yes it was a bit more realistic vs a single element, multiple linked elements flip more realistically. No air resistance simulation though.)
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2. swayvil ◴[] No.42184156[source]
Oh sure, let's doubt the evidence of our senses in favor of convention. That's good science.
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3. Vecr ◴[] No.42184213[source]
How good are you at Bayesian statistics, conditionalization, and understanding various biases? The simulation here should be good (it's better than mine).
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4. swayvil ◴[] No.42184514{3}[source]
Next you'll cite Bible verse.
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5. Vecr ◴[] No.42184688{4}[source]
I don't think Bible verses are related.

There are multiple ways to ground Bayesian statistics without resorting to grounding in coin flips. The simplest one isn't that robust, there's a mathematical one but it's abstract and uses calculus, there's a quantum one but I'm not even going there, and there's a highly robust one that's too complex for me to understand.

6. pugets ◴[] No.42184721{4}[source]
“We toss the coin, but it is the Lord who controls its decision.” - Proverbs 16:33 (TLB)
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7. chrismorgan ◴[] No.42184955{5}[source]
The very verse I was about to post! (Though I was going to quote it as more customarily and literally translated, “The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the LORD.”)

To add interest: there are plenty of people who firmly believe this, and make decisions by the drawing of lots, in various possible forms. I’m one. It’s taken me in interesting and unexpected directions this year.

8. __MatrixMan__ ◴[] No.42189177{5}[source]
Aye, always at the ready with His noodly appendage.