Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

(www.ycombinator.com)

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iMuzz ◴[15 Sep 16 18:20 UTC] No.12508474[source]▶

>>12508356 (OP) #

Question/Answer I found interesting:

Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful?

Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

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1. piedradura ◴[15 Sep 16 20:54 UTC] No.12509727[source]▶

>>12508474 #

I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.

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2. mrdmnd ◴[15 Sep 16 22:05 UTC] No.12510229[source]▶

>>12509727 (TP) #

Estimating this is probably futile, but in principle, I agree.

replies(1): >>12512841 #

3. metaphorm ◴[15 Sep 16 22:13 UTC] No.12510282[source]▶

>>12509727 (TP) #

you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.

replies(1): >>12512001 #

4. jimbokun ◴[15 Sep 16 23:55 UTC] No.12510872[source]▶

>>12509727 (TP) #

Yes, and I believe Sam brought that up later in the conversation.

5. thr0waway1239 ◴[16 Sep 16 05:19 UTC] No.12512001[source]▶

>>12510282 #

I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book:

That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event.

I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

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6. piedradura ◴[16 Sep 16 09:37 UTC] No.12512834{3}[source]▶

>>12512001 #

The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.

7. piedradura ◴[16 Sep 16 09:39 UTC] No.12512841[source]▶

>>12510229 #

A viability study is not something to reject.

8. metaphorm ◴[16 Sep 16 11:56 UTC] No.12513374{3}[source]▶

>>12512001 #

I think you should just read the book(s). They're very well written and enlightening.

9. tim333 ◴[16 Sep 16 22:11 UTC] No.12517750{3}[source]▶

>>12512001 #

I guess a hedge in that case would be to try to arrange things so they come out OK if you miss the goal. Like if you want to be president aim for the fail case being a successful lesser politician. Not sure what Taleb says.

10. spaceknarf ◴[19 Sep 16 10:55 UTC] No.12530337{3}[source]▶

>>12512001 #

Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.

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