←back to thread

Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

(www.ycombinator.com)
1106 points sama | 1 comments | 15 Sep 16 18:05 UTC | HN request time: 0.204s | source
Show context
iMuzz ◴[15 Sep 16 18:20 UTC] No.12508474[source]▶
Question/Answer I found interesting:

Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful?

Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

replies(8): >>12508769 #>>12509450 #>>12509709 #>>12509727 #>>12510398 #>>12513808 #>>12519665 #>>12519971 #
piedradura ◴[15 Sep 16 20:54 UTC] No.12509727[source]▶
I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.
replies(3): >>12510229 #>>12510282 #>>12510872 #
metaphorm ◴[15 Sep 16 22:13 UTC] No.12510282[source]▶
you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.
replies(1): >>12512001 #
thr0waway1239 ◴[16 Sep 16 05:19 UTC] No.12512001[source]▶
I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book:

That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event.

I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

replies(4): >>12512834 #>>12513374 #>>12517750 #>>12530337 #
1. piedradura ◴[16 Sep 16 09:37 UTC] No.12512834[source]▶
The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.