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Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

(www.ycombinator.com)
1106 points sama | 1 comments | 15 Sep 16 18:05 UTC | HN request time: 0.211s | source
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iMuzz ◴[15 Sep 16 18:20 UTC] No.12508474[source]▶
Question/Answer I found interesting:

Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful?

Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

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piedradura ◴[15 Sep 16 20:54 UTC] No.12509727[source]▶
I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.
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metaphorm ◴[15 Sep 16 22:13 UTC] No.12510282[source]▶
you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.
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thr0waway1239 ◴[16 Sep 16 05:19 UTC] No.12512001[source]▶
I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book:

That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event.

I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

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1. spaceknarf ◴[19 Sep 16 10:55 UTC] No.12530337[source]▶
Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.