Show HN: Gemini Pro 3 imagines the HN front page 10 years from now

Was ITER or nuclear energy in the prompt sample?

ITER achieves net positive energy for 20 consecutive minutes

That's just pure dark comedy, although maybe kinda accurate? What would humans predict for this?

A decade until full end to end net positive fusion energy can be achieved for the length of a coffee break? I don't get why you think that's dark comedy, it seems about right.

This would be very optimistic, essentially the project meeting its main goal, I'm not sure why you're calling it dark comedy. A 20 minutes pulse alone would mean the fuel injection, aux heating, plasma control systems and the divertor are working as designed. Net positive energy also means we got the physics of a burning plasma right.

The most recent timeline I know (from 2024) in fact puts the start of the DT operation at 2035, so I doubt ITER would achieve such a huge result within less than an year.

I think it's the "consecutive" that makes it funny. This thing that entire continents have been working on together for decades was operational for 20 consecutive minutes?!?

It's dark comedy because the progress of fusion just feels so agonizingly slow, that even a very optimistic prediction for 10 years from now sounds like such small and functionally useless progress.

And there's no shade toward any of the entities involved, it's a hard problem, but it's still funny.

Why not? It's been a decade away for the past 20 years.

Nah, it's huge, you just have to remember the best result so far: the JET DTE-3 record that produced the energy to boil 60 tea kettles in a whopping 5 seconds pulse.

If you can run ITER for 20 minutes you've essentially proved the Tokamak concept is viable for commercial use.

No you don't. Commercial use means it makes economical sense. When you have to spend more on maintainance (and recycling/dumping contaminated wall material amd somehow get the fuel) then you never can hope to make any profit.

A running ITER with positive energy output for 20 minutes just proofs that the concept can actually work. From there to commercial use would still be a long way, if it ever can compete at all, except in niches, like deep space.

(I rather would bet on the Stelleratar design)

I know, the fact that "consecutive" is actually significant in this context is part of the joke. Just try to read it from the perspective of someone that isn't steeped in the details (and expectations) of the slog of fusion. Relative to any kind of aspirational "flying cars" or "wacky ideas" future predictions, it sounds very underwhelming.

In Sim City 2000 (released 1993) the fusion power plant became available in the game year 2050.

The joke used to be that fusion power was always 50 years away, now you're saying it's perpetually only 10 years away, that's real progress! :)

They are certainly making very real gains and it's hard to predict when commercial viability is, but the progress path is getting clearer and the number of future decades promised shorter and shorter.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if that skunk works tiny fusion project or something substantially similar was actually successful and it's just being held as a secret competitive advantage.

I'm not saying ITER would be a commercial machine, I'm saying the Tokamak design would be viable.

Stellarators are interesting, but have been studied much less in comparison.