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296 points mohi-kalantari | 34 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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neilalexander ◴[] No.46194859[source]
I would think that if they actually spent the time and money fixing the core functionality of their core products (like Windows and Office) that they might have a much easier time promoting things like Copilot. Instead they leave their users wondering why they're so hell-bent on shoehorning AI into a Start menu that takes whole seconds longer to open than it should or into Windows Search that regularly fails to find installed programs or local files.
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coldpie ◴[] No.46195067[source]
Microsoft is a public company. That means their primary product is not products or services, it's their stock. Selling products & services can be an advertisement for their stock, but there are other methods of convincing people to buy their stock, too. Currently the stock market only wants stocks that have "AI" associated with them. It doesn't matter whether users like it or not, because having a viable business is not what the stock market is currently focused on. So, Microsoft is doing what they need to do to sell their primary product: shove AI into everything.
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1. saubeidl ◴[] No.46195081[source]
Maybe the stock market is not a good system to organize ones economy around then?
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2. cezart ◴[] No.46195304[source]
I've been thinking about this recently. The centrality of the stock market, while historically a great tool to allocate resources efficiently, might actually be a big weakness for the USA today. A capable adversary, like China, can kill entire strategic sectors in the US using the stock market. If they undercut the US companies and are willing to accept low returns on their investments, then the respective USA competition will be driven out of business by their investors, because there will be other sectors to invest in, with higher RoI. Do this at various points in strategic value chains, and over a decade or so it might kill entire verticals in strategic sectors, leaving the US economy vulnerable to any kinds of shocks.
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3. mrweasel ◴[] No.46195359[source]
The stock market weirdly enough ruins the idea of capitalism. Catering to shareholders hurts the idea that competition would create better and cheaper products.
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4. qweiopqweiop ◴[] No.46195397[source]
Do you need the stock market to undercut industries though? I'm not sure it's necessary
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5. zem ◴[] No.46195423[source]
that's not the idea of capitalism; the idea of capitalism is that you should be able to make money by virtue of owning stuff. it's an inherently rich-get-richer scheme, competition has little to do with it.
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6. FuckButtons ◴[] No.46195433[source]
We’re already there when it comes to having the industrial base necessary to fight a protracted conventional war with china. Which leaves a large ? over the US dominance over the pacific.
7. frickinLasers ◴[] No.46195454[source]
As someone who is essentially financially illiterate, what does this mean, "allocate resources efficiently?" Nobody's investing in companies that promise to cure world hunger or alleviate childhood suffering. They're investing in technologies that can extract the most wealth from the population, regardless of externalities. Is that desirable?

Then again, I can't fathom what people would be doing with their money if the stock market weren't there. I imagine they might naturally wind up with some sort of...stock market.

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8. onraglanroad ◴[] No.46195494[source]
Competition creating better products isn't an idea that defines capitalism though: the same would apply to cottage industry.

Capitalism is defined by having the capitalist, who provides capital, and without the ability to sell their share of stock it's difficult to see what the value would be. So you kind of require stock markets.

Edit: which is why it's odd to call China communist. They have 3 stock exchanges. They're really a capitalist single-party state.

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9. graemep ◴[] No.46195570[source]
Its not the stock market per se. The biggest problem is a lack of good regulation to ensure competition and the resulting drift of oligopolies.

The stockmarket enables that by making takeovers easier as you have a higher proportion of short termist shareholders who 1) fail to block value destroying acquisitions on one side and 2) jump at the chance to make a quick profit on the other.

10. graemep ◴[] No.46195581{3}[source]
I think its obvious the GP means free market capitalism, which is what almost everyone who favours capitalism thinks is the form it should take.
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11. fodkodrasz ◴[] No.46195606{3}[source]
While not strictly necessary, it is a great power multiplier.

It helps as it is both a gauge of the success of the strategy, and also a lever where the process can be fine tuned, eg. slowly buying stock then strategically dumping in the right time, correlated with other external shocks can have wider effect to whole industries through controlling the public opinion on specific industries.

12. mlsu ◴[] No.46195696[source]
Y-yeah. HYPOTHETICALLY, this is something an adversary to the USA might attempt to do, and it would really kneecap the US if they were successful.

But would only happen if USA decided to totally financialize all sectors of its economy and make a small set of oligarchic corporations THE load-bearing element of its strategic capacity, leading us to chase market returns even if those returns totally kneecapped our ability to build anything at all of actual value.

Good thing we haven't done that!

13. larkost ◴[] No.46195708{3}[source]
China uses Capitalism as a tool where the Party feels it would be beneficial (for the Party), and crushes it mercilessly when it gets in the way (other than this real estate problem they have right now).

In the U.S. we have mistaken Capitalism for a religion, and so it wags the dog, so to speak. Since our founding we have made some attempts at finding a balance between our use of the tools of Capitalism and socialism (in more the Democratic Socialism style, rather than the Communism style), and we had a good run in the decades after WWII. But starting with McCarthyism, and really picking up under Regan we have prided ourselves on adopting Capitalism as a religion, and it really shows up in both the income inequality as well as the increasing role of (and corrupting influence of) money in our politics/government.

14. zem ◴[] No.46195728{4}[source]
I don't see how free market capitalism fixes that. I looked up a definition to make sure I wasn't missing something and as per investopedia:

"The term “free market capitalism” refers to an economy that puts no or minimal barriers in the way of privately owned businesses. Matters such as worker rights, environmental protection, and product safety will be addressed by businesses as the marketplace demands."

it's basically worship of owning the means of production and not being regulated in its use, e.g. if you own a company you get to dictate all sorts of unreasonable things to your employees, and any benefits gained from automation accrue to whoever can afford the up front money to own the machines.

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15. wolvesechoes ◴[] No.46195825[source]
> while historically a great tool to allocate resources efficiently

Any empirical support for that?

16. wolvesechoes ◴[] No.46195848{4}[source]
And these people has audacity to proclaim that socialism is based on fantasy.
17. graemep ◴[] No.46195881{5}[source]
That is a bad definition and I cannot find it on investopedia. it is essentially an extreme libertarian spin on the definition.

There are better definitions on both wikipedia and Britannica:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market_capitalism

https://www.britannica.com/money/free-market

Especially this hit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market_capitalism#Concept...

18. Draiken ◴[] No.46195931[source]
> a great tool to allocate resources efficiently

Sorry but... WTF are you talking about?

It rewards self-destructive behavior in favor of short-term gains. Shareholders have *zero* commitment to the companies they buy shares from and will happily switch their entire portfolios on a whim. It's essentially people chasing the new shiny thing every single day.

Let's not forget it's a known fact that people with insider knowledge will profit over everyone else.

How is that efficient in any shape or form?

> If they undercut the US companies and are willing to accept low returns on their investments, then the respective USA competition will be driven out of business by their investors, because there will be other sectors to invest in, with higher RoI.

You're basically explaining one of the reasons stocks are a horrible idea for distributing resources.

It has nothing to do with whether or not it's central or distributed, it's merely the incentives they create. It's essentially Goodhart's law on steroids.

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19. Arainach ◴[] No.46195940{4}[source]
The free market abhors competition. It's much more profitable to be a monopoly - and profitable enough by far to squash any competitors in infancy.
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20. Draiken ◴[] No.46195984{4}[source]
Talk about utopia huh?

Free markets never existed, don't exist and never will. Markets are defined by laws and regulations in which they exist in. They can't ever be "free".

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21. graemep ◴[] No.46195993{5}[source]
Capitalists abhor competition. Adam Smith (as in "invisible hand") pointed this out. That is a subversion of a free market.
22. graemep ◴[] No.46196004{5}[source]
I agree. A free market requires regulation to ensure competition otherwise it ceases to be a free market.
23. cezart ◴[] No.46196009{3}[source]
Depends what you compare it with. I grew up in the post soviet union. That system allocated resources to various monopolies who were too big to fail. Turns out allocating capital based on who can make things that people want/need to buy, and do it with a profit, multiplies said capital way faster. From this point of view, over time your initial base grows into all kinds of industries etc. That's probably why the USA won the cold war.
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24. graemep ◴[] No.46196023{4}[source]
I assume the downvotes are because people do not know the difference between "free market" and "entirely unregualted market"?

Please get your definitions from someone reasonable (Adam Smith might be a good start) rather than Ayn Rand.

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25. Alsedarna ◴[] No.46196087{3}[source]
The operating principle here being that prices are units of information, which in aggregate reveal some combination of market demand, present supply, production costs, etc. All else being equal, an investor who's looking to put an investment into a new business will try to find the best rate of return. The existence of a relatively higher profit margin for an industry suggests an unmet market need, and then directs the flow of capital into it (if you expect that for every $1 you invest into a roofing nail plant will return $1.25 over the next year vs a $2 return from a new insulin plant, more new cash will flow into the insulin plant, more insulin gets made, and if the investor guessed right about the demand for it, they turn a profit). In a sentence, money flows towards trying to give people what we think they want more of.

The theory posited above is that you could try to manipulate these signals as a sort of economic warfare. If you expect that every dollar you put into our aforementioned roofing nail factory will get you minuscule or negative return, nobody's going to want to invest in building/expanding nail factories, and they'll put their cash somewhere it can grow instead. This is all well and good so long as you've got happy trading relationships with people who can sell you nails, but if one day the nails stop coming--you've got a supply chain shock until you either open new factories or find someone else willing to sell nails to you. The theory here being that if you had a LOT of goods that became tied up in a single point of failure--someone forcing that failure could create a great deal of internal instability to be exploited for geopolitical ends.

26. jfim ◴[] No.46196101{3}[source]
That's what's meant by efficiency, it's allocating it to the place that has the highest return on investment.

As you point out, in practice what's efficient is what can capture the highest return, not necessarily the highest return per se. If say investing in education had high returns society wide but those returns couldn't be captured, that's not an efficient use of private capital.

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27. saubeidl ◴[] No.46196165{4}[source]
As somebody doesn't consider himself a capitalist, wouldn't it be fair to say it is "the most efficient" in precisely one thing: capital reproducing itself?

And if so, why is that necessarily a good thing? Why should that be our goal as society as opposed to things like minimizing child mortality, increasing literacy rates, making sure we don't have a ton of our fellow humans living on the street in misery etc etc - things that make the lives of our fellow humans better? Why is capital growth the metric we have chosen to optimize for? Surely there's better things to optimize for?

Excuse the polemic, but infinite growth with no regard for anything else is the ideology of a cancer cell - and to me that is increasingly what it feels like when we are wasting all these resources on a dying planet just to make numbers go up.

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28. Lammy ◴[] No.46196309{5}[source]
Relevant U.S. Constitution: https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-1/#ar...

> “The Congress shall have Power… To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;”

29. TheOtherHobbes ◴[] No.46196336{4}[source]
Until your economy congeals into various monopolies who are too big to fail, and you lose the rematch because you're so busy counting beans you stop paying attention.
30. saubeidl ◴[] No.46196371{4}[source]
I'd argue the Cold War isn't over and the US is losing it right now with how their president grovels before the Russian one
31. TheOtherHobbes ◴[] No.46196390{5}[source]
Applies globally.
32. jfim ◴[] No.46196477{5}[source]
Optimizing for capital returns is a simplification of the real world, where it allows for comparing whether it makes more sense to put one's money into opportunity A or B.

There's a lot that's not captured by solely looking at dollars, like the examples that you bring up, such as quality of life, human welfare, and so on.

33. rcxdude ◴[] No.46196478{5}[source]
Ultimately that money is made by people choosing to spend their money on something, because it helps them, because they like it, because they need it for whatever reason (real or imagined). That's what grounds the financial markets: eventually someone is buying a thing because they want the thing, and all the rest of it is basically just figuring out who can make the thing, how many people want the thing and how badly, and whether the stuff used to make the thing could make a different thing that people want more. Financial markets can depart from that reality for a while, but mainly because of a collective belief in some falsehood about the above (everyone really badly wants AI, right?).

Number go up infinitely is due to inflation and that's basically just an incentive to not hoard cash indefinitely, and instead use it for something useful. But the only thing that uses up is numbers. Everything else is because people, on average, want more stuff and are willing and able to work hard to get it.

(Of course, this generally means that the markets chase the desires of those who have something valuable enough. People who don't will be marginalised by this mechanism, for sure. And of course there's lots of opportunity for people to steal or abuse powerful positions in the market to the detriment of others. Which is why a free market is not the be all and end all of organising a society, and other organisational structures exist to regulate it and to allocate resources in a less transactional manner)

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34. saubeidl ◴[] No.46196527{6}[source]
But isn't that counter to the very article we're commenting on? Everyone is shoving half baked AI junk into everything because that's what makes number go up on the stock market, but I'm pretty sure that's not actually what most people would want those resources to be used for.

I'd posit that markets are completely detached from the real world and are more of a speculative/religious element than an indicator of any ground truths.

Edit: I just realized I missed a sentence of yours where you kinda spoke to this. I still believe that this is more of a rule than an exception - there is nothing inherently tying markets and reality together - they're mostly about people making bets on what the next big hype is; not on what is actually useful to anyone.