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The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

(steerlabs.substack.com)
323 points steerlabs | 8 comments | 04 Dec 25 20:48 UTC | HN request time: 0.222s | source | bottom
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jqpabc123 ◴[04 Dec 25 21:38 UTC] No.46153440[source]▶
We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game.

Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs.

The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

replies(17): >>46155764 #>>46191721 #>>46191867 #>>46191871 #>>46191893 #>>46191910 #>>46191973 #>>46191987 #>>46192152 #>>46192471 #>>46192526 #>>46192557 #>>46192939 #>>46193456 #>>46194206 #>>46194503 #>>46194518 #
Davidzheng ◴[08 Dec 25 13:02 UTC] No.46191721[source]▶
lol humans are non-deterministic too
replies(4): >>46191924 #>>46191926 #>>46193770 #>>46194093 #
1. some_furry ◴[08 Dec 25 13:22 UTC] No.46191924[source]▶
Human minds are more complicated than a language model that behaves like a stochastic echo.
replies(1): >>46191966 #
2. pixl97 ◴[08 Dec 25 13:26 UTC] No.46191966[source]▶
Birds are more complicated than jet engines, but jet engines travel a lot faster.
replies(3): >>46191991 #>>46192705 #>>46192940 #
3. loloquwowndueo ◴[08 Dec 25 13:29 UTC] No.46191991[source]▶
They also kill a lot more people when they fail.
replies(2): >>46192887 #>>46196295 #
4. psychoslave ◴[08 Dec 25 14:37 UTC] No.46192705[source]▶
Jet engines don't go anywhere without a large industry continuously taking care of all the complexity that even the simplest jet travel imply.
5. pixl97 ◴[08 Dec 25 14:54 UTC] No.46192887{3}[source]▶
I mean, via bird flu, even conservative estimates show there have been at least 2 million deaths. I know, I know, totally different things, but complex systems have complex side effects.
replies(1): >>46193070 #
6. akomtu ◴[08 Dec 25 14:59 UTC] No.46192940[source]▶
Birds don't need airports, don't need expensive maintenance every N hours of flight, they run on seeds and bugs found everywhere that they find themselves, instead of expensive poisonous fuel that must be fed to planes by mechanics, they self-replicate for cheap, and the noises they produce are pleasant rather than deafening.
7. loloquwowndueo ◴[08 Dec 25 15:08 UTC] No.46193070{4}[source]▶
Jet engines run on oil-based fuels. How may deaths can be attributed to problems related to oil ? We can do this all day :) I would suggest we stop, I was really just being snarky.
8. exe34 ◴[08 Dec 25 19:07 UTC] No.46196295{3}[source]▶
Is birdflu the failure mode?