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    521 points hd4 | 11 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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    hunglee2 ◴[] No.45643396[source]
    The US attempt to slow down China's technological development succeeds on the basis of preventing China from directly following the same path, but may backfire in the sense it forces innovation by China in a different direction. The overall outcome for us all may be increase efficiency as a result of this forced innovation, especially if Chinese companies continue to open source their advances, so we may in the end have reason to thank the US for their civilisational gate keeping
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    dlisboa ◴[] No.45643770[source]
    History has shown that withholding technology from China does not significantly stop them and they'll achieve it (or better) in a small number of years.

    In many senses there's hubris in the western* view of China accomplishments: most of what western companies have created has had significant contribution by Chinese scientists or manufacturing, without which those companies would have nothing. If you look at the names of AI researchers there's a strong pattern even if some are currently plying their trade in the west.

    ---

    * I hate the term "western" because some "westeners" use it to separated what they think are "civilized" from "uncivilized", hence for them LATAM is not "western" even though everything about LATAM countries is western.

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    onlyrealcuzzo ◴[] No.45644087[source]
    > History has shown that withholding technology from China does not significantly stop them and they'll achieve it (or better) in a small number of years.

    It's worked for a very long time for aircraft.

    China has been pushing to build its own aircraft for >23 years. It took 14 years for COMAC to get its first regional jet flying commercial flights on a Chinese airline, and 21 years to get a narrow-body plane flying a commercial flight on a Chinese airline.

    If for no technical reasons and purely political, COMAC may still be decades away from being able to fly to most of the world.

    Likewise, in ~5 years, China may be able to build Chips that are as good as Nvidia after Nvidia's 90% profit margin - i.e. they are 1/10th as good for the price - but since they can buy them for cost - they're they same price for performance and good enough.

    If for purely political reasons, China may never be able to export these chips to most of the world - which limits their scale - which makes it harder to make them cost effective compared to Western chips.

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    1. wood_spirit ◴[] No.45646026[source]
    But at the same time they are fielding multiple new stealth aircraft and their jets and missiles outperformed western aircraft in the recent Pakistan India flare-up.
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    2. ambicapter ◴[] No.45646151[source]
    So you'd think they'd be able to build a commercial jet liner, no?
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    3. ◴[] No.45646383[source]
    4. hmm37 ◴[] No.45646541[source]
    But commercial jet liners aren't as important to China for security. They have high speed railroads for that.
    5. kelipso ◴[] No.45646625[source]
    It’s would be a result of where the money and resources go, I assume. Apparently they haven’t felt a need to manufacture their own commercial jets but they did for military jets. They definitely feel the need in the case of chips.
    6. ta20240528 ◴[] No.45646685[source]
    So… you'd think the USA would be able to built a nationwide, high-speed rail network?

    See what I did there?

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    7. fnord123 ◴[] No.45646970[source]
    C919
    8. samus ◴[] No.45647173[source]
    Roughly speaking, an aircraft must fulfill a certain amount of economy (cheap, low cost to operate), safety, and performance.

    If you compromise on safety, you get something that is still suitable for the military. If you don't care about economics you can participate in the space race.

    But for commercial air travel, you don't have the luxury to pick just two; a competitive commercial airliner has to perform exceedingly well in all three regards.

    If you're an airline using expensive aircraft you will go bankrupt. If your aircraft is too slow then your competitors will eat your lunch, and if you have a reputation of being unsafe then your customers will run away or the government will pull the plug (likely both).

    IMHO affordable commercial air travel is one of the biggest marvels of 20th century engineering.

    9. garblegarble ◴[] No.45649427[source]
    China currently can't make the high-performance, efficient, long-life jet engines that US & Europe make. The commercial market is heavily cost-sensitive, so they can't compete there currently as a result.

    This doesn't matter so much for military purposes: they can easily eat the cost of a higher maintenance and replacement schedule on a smaller number of military jets with fewer hours on them.

    This gives them more iteration cycles, speeding their building up of experience. They're catching up. Industrial espionage will help them along too, but not as much as the experience from engineering their own designs.

    10. ambicapter ◴[] No.45668170{3}[source]
    I mean, they're different industries, so I'm not sure how strong that analogy is.
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    11. ta20240528 ◴[] No.45671735{4}[source]
    OP: "So you'd think they'd be able to build a commercial jet liner, no?"

    Sigh, the OP chucked out a casual insult at the Chinese because - unlike the USA and EU - their society is unable to (to date) build an international airliner business.

    I deftly pointed out that the USA - despite is historical achievements - cannot build a high speed rail network and industry.

    Once cannot cherry-pick the data one likes.