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521 points hd4 | 50 comments | | HN request time: 1.066s | source | bottom
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hunglee2 ◴[] No.45643396[source]
The US attempt to slow down China's technological development succeeds on the basis of preventing China from directly following the same path, but may backfire in the sense it forces innovation by China in a different direction. The overall outcome for us all may be increase efficiency as a result of this forced innovation, especially if Chinese companies continue to open source their advances, so we may in the end have reason to thank the US for their civilisational gate keeping
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dlisboa ◴[] No.45643770[source]
History has shown that withholding technology from China does not significantly stop them and they'll achieve it (or better) in a small number of years.

In many senses there's hubris in the western* view of China accomplishments: most of what western companies have created has had significant contribution by Chinese scientists or manufacturing, without which those companies would have nothing. If you look at the names of AI researchers there's a strong pattern even if some are currently plying their trade in the west.

---

* I hate the term "western" because some "westeners" use it to separated what they think are "civilized" from "uncivilized", hence for them LATAM is not "western" even though everything about LATAM countries is western.

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1. onlyrealcuzzo ◴[] No.45644087[source]
> History has shown that withholding technology from China does not significantly stop them and they'll achieve it (or better) in a small number of years.

It's worked for a very long time for aircraft.

China has been pushing to build its own aircraft for >23 years. It took 14 years for COMAC to get its first regional jet flying commercial flights on a Chinese airline, and 21 years to get a narrow-body plane flying a commercial flight on a Chinese airline.

If for no technical reasons and purely political, COMAC may still be decades away from being able to fly to most of the world.

Likewise, in ~5 years, China may be able to build Chips that are as good as Nvidia after Nvidia's 90% profit margin - i.e. they are 1/10th as good for the price - but since they can buy them for cost - they're they same price for performance and good enough.

If for purely political reasons, China may never be able to export these chips to most of the world - which limits their scale - which makes it harder to make them cost effective compared to Western chips.

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2. sofixa ◴[] No.45644374[source]
> China has been pushing to build its own aircraft for >23 years. It took 14 years for COMAC to get its first regional jet flying commercial flights on a Chinese airline, and 21 years to get a narrow-body plane flying a commercial flight on a Chinese airline

And both those planes have a strong dependency on "western" components that won't be overcome before the 2030s, and even then, they're around a generation behind.

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3. Yoric ◴[] No.45644658[source]
> If for purely political reasons, China may never be able to export these chips to most of the world - which limits their scale - which makes it harder to make them cost effective compared to Western chips.

Note that this happens at the same time the US is breaking up its own alliances, so as of this writing, there's no such thing as certainty about politics.

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4. wood_spirit ◴[] No.45646026[source]
But at the same time they are fielding multiple new stealth aircraft and their jets and missiles outperformed western aircraft in the recent Pakistan India flare-up.
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5. ambicapter ◴[] No.45646151[source]
So you'd think they'd be able to build a commercial jet liner, no?
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6. ◴[] No.45646383[source]
7. hmm37 ◴[] No.45646541{3}[source]
But commercial jet liners aren't as important to China for security. They have high speed railroads for that.
8. kelipso ◴[] No.45646625{3}[source]
It’s would be a result of where the money and resources go, I assume. Apparently they haven’t felt a need to manufacture their own commercial jets but they did for military jets. They definitely feel the need in the case of chips.
9. ta20240528 ◴[] No.45646685{3}[source]
So… you'd think the USA would be able to built a nationwide, high-speed rail network?

See what I did there?

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10. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45646955[source]
>the same time the US is breaking up its own alliances

This isn't happening. The US is driving a harder bargain with our allies. No one serious thinks anyone is walking away from alliances with the US.

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11. fnord123 ◴[] No.45646970{3}[source]
C919
12. brookst ◴[] No.45647084{3}[source]
The US has become unreliable and erratic. Countries aren’t cutting ties or anything, but certainly investing to reduce exposure to capricious US leadership. Much of Europe is increasing domestic military production rather than just buying more from the US precisely because the US has publicly discussed leaving NATO and/or not honoring its guarantees.
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13. samus ◴[] No.45647173{3}[source]
Roughly speaking, an aircraft must fulfill a certain amount of economy (cheap, low cost to operate), safety, and performance.

If you compromise on safety, you get something that is still suitable for the military. If you don't care about economics you can participate in the space race.

But for commercial air travel, you don't have the luxury to pick just two; a competitive commercial airliner has to perform exceedingly well in all three regards.

If you're an airline using expensive aircraft you will go bankrupt. If your aircraft is too slow then your competitors will eat your lunch, and if you have a reputation of being unsafe then your customers will run away or the government will pull the plug (likely both).

IMHO affordable commercial air travel is one of the biggest marvels of 20th century engineering.

14. huntertwo ◴[] No.45647259[source]
5 years behind becomes 3 years behind. China is expanding their manufacturing abilities faster than the US. Soon they will surpass the US. Look no further than their generic consumer electronics manufacturing.
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15. redserk ◴[] No.45647556{3}[source]
Why the framing of alliances like it’s a boolean?

The question of “can we trust the American government” is now being asked more often. Existing alliances and new potential alliances face that question, whether or not you personally believe that they should trust America.

Even if no concrete actions are being performed with asking that question, the fact that question is even being asked is a major drop from where we were.

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16. traverseda ◴[] No.45647876{3}[source]
No one is going to walk away from that kind of alliance tomorrow, sure. Stuff like "we're going to remotely disable military equipment we've sold you" is going to have consequences though. It's not walking away from alliances, it's just focusing on more stable countries.
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17. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45648062{4}[source]
Increasing domestic military production is actually a great outcome.

Obviously Wall Street would have preferred purchasing from US-listed/owned arms companies, but from the perspective of a military alliance, having well-armed allies is the main point.

It's really hard to argue with Trump's methods if they led to Europe finally spending on their own defense.

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18. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45648084{4}[source]
You're right, alliances are not boolean.

From the US perspective, we have been asking ourselves "can we trust Europe's military capacity" for a very long time and the answer (prior to 2025) was: NO.

With Trump on one side and Russia on the other, it seems like the answer has shifted to: MAYBE.

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19. fxtentacle ◴[] No.45648222{3}[source]
I observe serious financial commitments towards walking away from US tech:

The EU is pumping money into what they call "digital sovereignty" left and right. Germany just cancelled their Microsoft subscriptions and replaced them with self-funded Open Source for Schleswig-Holstein, which is roughly 5% of all government employees. That's one hell of a trial run. Germany's "OpenDesk" and France’s "La Suite numérique" even made into the new "Franco-German Economic Agenda 2025", which self-describes as "bilateral coordination to full swing for a more sovereign Europe".

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20. Yoric ◴[] No.45648467{3}[source]
Are you sure?

I mean, the current administration has repeatedly threatened to invade militarily two of its allies. Also, it has repeatedly threatened to not honor military agreements with most others, and both the current president and vice-president have insulted the leaders of several allied countries to their face.

Oh, and if that weren't sufficient, the current admin has unilaterally broken all trade treaties (alongside most intellectual property treaties) it held with its commercial partners.

The EU is slow at it, but it's no accident that everybody is doing their best to move away from US tech and military dependencies.

21. Yoric ◴[] No.45648509{5}[source]
Frankly, this sounds like you're repeating propaganda.

When the US called its allies to its wars, NATO responded. Now that the rest of NATO is being threatened, the US is playing neutral, trying to see which side will bid highest for their help.

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22. fooker ◴[] No.45648524[source]
> China may never be able to export these chips

While you type this, the rest of the world is already using Chinese cars, something that was unthinkable a year or two ago.

The US has closed the market off from this for its auto industry to survive.

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23. Yoric ◴[] No.45648545{4}[source]
To clarify: it's not exactly "remotely disable".

It's "block everything that depends on US clouds", which is a considerable downgrade (because you can't upload all mission parameters to an airplane without going through the cloud, and you can't use self-diagnosis features), but not entirely a kill switch. Close enough, though.

24. organsnyder ◴[] No.45648810{5}[source]
> From the US perspective, we have been asking ourselves "can we trust Europe's military capacity" for a very long time and the answer (prior to 2025) was: NO.

NATO's mutual defense clause has only been activated once: after 9/11, when the United States declared war on the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Out of the 3621 deaths of coalition soldiers, 1160 of them were from nations other than the United States, including 457 from the UK, 159 from Canada, and 90 from France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_casualties_in_Afghan...

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25. Our_Benefactors ◴[] No.45649086{4}[source]
> Stuff like "we're going to remotely disable military equipment we've sold you" is going to have consequences though.

Proof of this happening or even having the capability of happening? There is none.

26. garblegarble ◴[] No.45649427{3}[source]
China currently can't make the high-performance, efficient, long-life jet engines that US & Europe make. The commercial market is heavily cost-sensitive, so they can't compete there currently as a result.

This doesn't matter so much for military purposes: they can easily eat the cost of a higher maintenance and replacement schedule on a smaller number of military jets with fewer hours on them.

This gives them more iteration cycles, speeding their building up of experience. They're catching up. Industrial espionage will help them along too, but not as much as the experience from engineering their own designs.

27. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45650402{6}[source]
Yes I served with those people so I am not denigrating their sacrifice when I say:

2001 was 24 years ago. A lot has changed since then. Europe's militaries are much degraded and the threats are much enhanced.

28. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45650408{6}[source]
Which NATO ally is being threatened?
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29. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45650447{4}[source]
You think our alliances are Microsoft Office licenses?
30. markdown ◴[] No.45650597{5}[source]
You've moved the goalposts
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31. x1ph0z ◴[] No.45651133{3}[source]
lol this is a joke right? Ask any Canadian if they think America is driving a hard bargain or pushing away its closest ally.
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32. Alupis ◴[] No.45651225[source]
This statement doesn't make a lot of sense. 40-50% of vehicles are foreign-made already[1]. I would strongly wager it's vastly more likely that these Chinese vehicles do not meet US safety standards - which are quite high.

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-pr...

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33. lmz ◴[] No.45651295{3}[source]
Much higher standards than European ones? Because the cars do sell there as well.
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34. Alupis ◴[] No.45651699{4}[source]
Yes. The EU focuses on safety of pedestrians, and the US focuses on safety of occupants. That's not to say a vehicle cannot do both well (see the many European vehicles sold in the US), but that is to say Chinese vehicles may not meet the US standards. The US has a lot of vehicle regulations that significantly differ from the EU market.
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35. wobfan ◴[] No.45652663{5}[source]
Do you mind providing sources for that?

Because, as a EU citizen, I have never in my life seen any tests that carmarkers are advertising with that focus on pedestrians. I am regularly seeing tests that focus on occupants though, e.g. the Euro NCAP. But I am by no means an expert.

It would be hard to focus on pedestrian safety from a carmaker standpoint except for adding software features that recognize people in front of you and auto-brake or smth, which definitely is not the focus of the tests here. It may be a requirement though. The more I think about it, the more sure I am that you just made this up, sorry.

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36. thelastgallon ◴[] No.45652970{5}[source]
> Yes. The EU focuses on safety of pedestrians, and the US focuses on safety of occupants.

How can a car focus on the safety of pedestrian? Does it detect a pedestrian and fly away like a drone?

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37. lmz ◴[] No.45653032{6}[source]
The tests include tests for the safety of the people hit by the car vs just for people inside the car.
38. wasmitnetzen ◴[] No.45653533{5}[source]
That's not true, it's just that the Chinese NCAP is modeled after the EU one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-NCAP
39. HPsquared ◴[] No.45653671{6}[source]
Pedestrian impact design has been a thing in the European market for a while. One example: the pop-up hood that detects a pedestrian impact, it's a pyrotechnic device that makes the hood pop up to give more of a cushion for the pedestrian to land on. Also I think pedestrian safety is one reason modern BMWs and Audis have the timing chains (very annoyingly for maintenance) fitted at the back of the engine, to give more space for pedestrian impact. Stuff like that. Also the automated emergency braking systems, more recently.

https://www.euroncap.com/en/car-safety/the-ratings-explained...

40. antonvs ◴[] No.45654630{5}[source]
> It's really hard to argue with Trump's methods

On the contrary, his methods are ridiculous. He could have achieved similar ends without kowtowing to Russia, without squandering the opportunity to further weaken Russia’s military capacity, and so on. Something similar applies to pretty much everything else he’s done. He incurs collateral damage on everything even when it’s completely unnecessary to do so. It’s a definitional example of egregious incompetence.

41. DiogenesKynikos ◴[] No.45654766{5}[source]
The EU focuses on both aspects of safety.

You can look at the Euro NCAP ratings for the 2023 BYD Seal, for example: https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/byd/seal/50012. They break down the rating based on safety for adult occupants, child occupants and pedestrians. These ratings are based on many different crash tests.

42. redserk ◴[] No.45654768{7}[source]
Poland[1, 3], Latvia [2], Lithuania [3]

1. https://apnews.com/article/russia-nato-members-borders-airsp...

2. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-drone-that-cras...

3. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-says-russian-...

Among other events, like drones being spotted near commercial airports.

Are you suggesting repeated airspace intrusions and acts against civilians are merely acts of innocence?

43. DiogenesKynikos ◴[] No.45654797{3}[source]
Chinese companies make cars with 5-star European crash ratings. They are perfectly capable of meeting US safety standards.
44. sofixa ◴[] No.45656526{3}[source]
It's not 5 years behind, engine tech is more on a ~15 year cycle, or even more.

CFM LEAP, latest short-to-medium-haul airliner engine from CFM (GE+Safran) is from 2013 (first run). Its predecessor, CFM56, is from 1974 (first run) and saw a few evolutions, including as late as 2009.

45. fooker ◴[] No.45658401{3}[source]
>I would strongly wager it's vastly more likely that these Chinese vehicles do not meet US safety standards

This was correct a few years years ago.

It's actually the opposite nowadays, most of these cars are safer than the typical 2.5L 4 cylinder American car. Both the EU and Australia has been completely flooded with these cars, to an extent that you'd have to see it to believe it.

46. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45658629{4}[source]
"closest ally" that doesn't fund their army despite having a huge land mass or their navy despite having a huge coast line and despite being located adjacent to our two biggest threats (China and Russia)
47. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45658658{6}[source]
sorry nope. I said that we haven't broken up an alliances and that our allies are now investing in their own defense.
48. brookst ◴[] No.45663717{5}[source]
That’s moving the goalposts.

The fact that they are doing this because they don’t trust the US to honor its commitments is a very different proposition from “maybe it’s for the best”.

And if you’re familiar with world war 1 and 2, you might doubt that significant increase in domestic military production is a wholly good thing.

But point stands: it’s an example of formerly-strong alliance that is no longer trusted.

49. ambicapter ◴[] No.45668170{4}[source]
I mean, they're different industries, so I'm not sure how strong that analogy is.
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50. ta20240528 ◴[] No.45671735{5}[source]
OP: "So you'd think they'd be able to build a commercial jet liner, no?"

Sigh, the OP chucked out a casual insult at the Chinese because - unlike the USA and EU - their society is unable to (to date) build an international airliner business.

I deftly pointed out that the USA - despite is historical achievements - cannot build a high speed rail network and industry.

Once cannot cherry-pick the data one likes.