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185 points ivewonyoung | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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karmakaze ◴[] No.45409952[source]
I'd thought that by living indoors and in otherwise controlled environments that there's not really much evolutionary pressure in any particular direction. Higher intelligence isn't a specific requirement to have (many) children live healthy lives.
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chongli ◴[] No.45410124[source]
You don't have to die to be selected out of the gene pool, you just need to fail to reproduce. If intelligence contributes to wealth and wealth contributes to reproductive success, then there will be evolutionary pressure favouring intelligence (and any other genes that "come along for the ride" with it).
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somenameforme ◴[] No.45410693[source]
The reality is that wealth is inversely correlated with fertility. As are intelligence, education, secularity, and so on. IQ is a decent proxy for intelligence. What many people don't know is that it's not a raw score, but relative. The mean of a population is always set to 100 and a standard deviation is generally 15 points. So an IQ of 115 means you performed better than 84% of people, one positive standard deviation.

It was discovered some time back that the 'raw score' for IQs was increasing over time - meaning the mean kept going higher and higher. This is called the Flynn Effect. [1] People were getting smarter. The section I linked to is about the fact this trend reversed some time around 1990 in the developed world. Wiki uses weaker language 'possible end' but it's been tested and verified repeatedly at this point - we're getting dumber, and quite rapidly. This remains true even after controlling for obvious explanations like immigration.

This is yet another reason why fertility is, in my opinion, the issue of the century. The world is going to look so absurdly different, and not in a good way, in 50 years, owing to fertility rates alone. We're very likely living on the tail end of a societal golden age.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect#Possible_end_of_p...

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1. makeitdouble ◴[] No.45411677[source]
> The reality is that wealth is inversely correlated with fertility.

Yes and no, it's a lot more nuanced. There can be higher fertility and the very low high and very high end of wealth, but it's also not consistent nor a solid link.

This article looked at as an well illustrated one to me:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/more-money-more-babies-whats-the-...

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2. somenameforme ◴[] No.45412970[source]
Their graph is setting off red flags for me. A decent sized sample of data over any sort of remotely normal distribution doesn't look like that where you're seeing a 3% change on the x axis drive a 30% shift on the y, and then back again. Here [1] are some of the data that they probably used. Table 7 in particular.

Here is the percent of women in each income bracket who gave birth in the past year by ascending income per household member (their choice of data, not mine - I would prefer completed fertility):

7.96 7.51 6.39 5.14 4.47 3.78 3.18

Here is the percent by total household income in ascending order of income:

6.27 5.23 5.64 5.88 5.26 5.30 5.26 4.98 4.64 4.75

In both cases there is a practically linear, and sharp, inverse correlation between income and fertility. I have no idea how they derived their graph as that data does not seem to be directly provided, but there's no combination of the lines in their graphs that would yield these data as an average, so I suspect they made a mistake.

I would not dispute that there is a U curved shape to fertility, but it's misleading as the tail end is in extremely high incomes. And in any case, their graphs look more like some sort of messed up sine waves, which is obviously just wrong!

[1] - https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2022/demo/fertility/women...

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EDIT: Actually I have a hypothesis. The census tables give an extremely useless datum that's very easy to misinterpret. The column is simply labeled "percent". It waxes and wanes all over the place, very much like their graph does. But it's the percent of all births that came from a given income group. But that is completely meaningless, because what matters is the data I gave (and had to manually calculate - by adding a new column) which is the percent of each group that is having children. Otherwise you're graphing some bastardization of population size at each percentile (a bell curve) multiplied by a pseudo-randomizing linear decreasing factor (fertility). So you get a graph that looks weird and makes no sense.