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185 points ivewonyoung | 17 comments | | HN request time: 0.604s | source | bottom
1. karmakaze ◴[] No.45409952[source]
I'd thought that by living indoors and in otherwise controlled environments that there's not really much evolutionary pressure in any particular direction. Higher intelligence isn't a specific requirement to have (many) children live healthy lives.
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2. brian-armstrong ◴[] No.45410010[source]
This is obviously untrue, isn't it? A great many person has died maidenless, as it were.
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3. chongli ◴[] No.45410124[source]
You don't have to die to be selected out of the gene pool, you just need to fail to reproduce. If intelligence contributes to wealth and wealth contributes to reproductive success, then there will be evolutionary pressure favouring intelligence (and any other genes that "come along for the ride" with it).
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4. svnt ◴[] No.45410678[source]
It also weeds you out if you reproduce but your children choose not to (and/or don’t get chosen), which adds an interesting dimension.
5. somenameforme ◴[] No.45410693[source]
The reality is that wealth is inversely correlated with fertility. As are intelligence, education, secularity, and so on. IQ is a decent proxy for intelligence. What many people don't know is that it's not a raw score, but relative. The mean of a population is always set to 100 and a standard deviation is generally 15 points. So an IQ of 115 means you performed better than 84% of people, one positive standard deviation.

It was discovered some time back that the 'raw score' for IQs was increasing over time - meaning the mean kept going higher and higher. This is called the Flynn Effect. [1] People were getting smarter. The section I linked to is about the fact this trend reversed some time around 1990 in the developed world. Wiki uses weaker language 'possible end' but it's been tested and verified repeatedly at this point - we're getting dumber, and quite rapidly. This remains true even after controlling for obvious explanations like immigration.

This is yet another reason why fertility is, in my opinion, the issue of the century. The world is going to look so absurdly different, and not in a good way, in 50 years, owing to fertility rates alone. We're very likely living on the tail end of a societal golden age.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect#Possible_end_of_p...

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6. zeroonetwothree ◴[] No.45410804{3}[source]
For most of human history wealth was positively correlated with fertility and especially with next generation fertility. The trend has changed in the more recent centuries but it’s not enough to affect us too much evolutionarily (for now).
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7. lelanthran ◴[] No.45410833{3}[source]
> This is yet another reason why fertility is, in my opinion, the issue of the century. The world is going to look so absurdly different, and not in a good way, in 50 years, owing to fertility rates alone.

Have you ever seen Idiocracy?

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8. somenameforme ◴[] No.45410952{4}[source]
That documentary? Yeah, highly recommended.
9. Muromec ◴[] No.45410981[source]
Nobody offerred them toyota accord either. Really unfortunate
10. somenameforme ◴[] No.45411035{4}[source]
But it is! To take a silly but noncontroversial example - if, for just a single fertility generation (which is driven by the female fertility window for humans - about 20 years) anybody over 5'3" stopped having children, all humans would become quite short! Of course there's some asterisks there like malnutrition may mean somebody's genetically 'normal' height is greater than their expressed height, but the broad point remains true - in a single generation there would be a dramatic transformation in humanity.

This has also been observed in nature. For instance most people view the variation in Darwin's finches as something gradually happening over eons, but further studies on them showed a rapid shift in beak morphology following a single severe drought. [1] It's the same stuff - suddenly one beak became more likely to reproduce (or not), which drove a very rapid population level change.

[1] - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160421145759.h...

11. poulpy123 ◴[] No.45411119[source]
Evolution still happens, but in any case if autism is a side effect of the genes that make us intelligent, they are here from much before than central heating and plumbing
12. makeitdouble ◴[] No.45411677{3}[source]
> The reality is that wealth is inversely correlated with fertility.

Yes and no, it's a lot more nuanced. There can be higher fertility and the very low high and very high end of wealth, but it's also not consistent nor a solid link.

This article looked at as an well illustrated one to me:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/more-money-more-babies-whats-the-...

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13. ErigmolCt ◴[] No.45412136[source]
But the evolutionary pressures discussed in the paper are much older
14. somenameforme ◴[] No.45412970{4}[source]
Their graph is setting off red flags for me. A decent sized sample of data over any sort of remotely normal distribution doesn't look like that where you're seeing a 3% change on the x axis drive a 30% shift on the y, and then back again. Here [1] are some of the data that they probably used. Table 7 in particular.

Here is the percent of women in each income bracket who gave birth in the past year by ascending income per household member (their choice of data, not mine - I would prefer completed fertility):

7.96 7.51 6.39 5.14 4.47 3.78 3.18

Here is the percent by total household income in ascending order of income:

6.27 5.23 5.64 5.88 5.26 5.30 5.26 4.98 4.64 4.75

In both cases there is a practically linear, and sharp, inverse correlation between income and fertility. I have no idea how they derived their graph as that data does not seem to be directly provided, but there's no combination of the lines in their graphs that would yield these data as an average, so I suspect they made a mistake.

I would not dispute that there is a U curved shape to fertility, but it's misleading as the tail end is in extremely high incomes. And in any case, their graphs look more like some sort of messed up sine waves, which is obviously just wrong!

[1] - https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2022/demo/fertility/women...

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EDIT: Actually I have a hypothesis. The census tables give an extremely useless datum that's very easy to misinterpret. The column is simply labeled "percent". It waxes and wanes all over the place, very much like their graph does. But it's the percent of all births that came from a given income group. But that is completely meaningless, because what matters is the data I gave (and had to manually calculate - by adding a new column) which is the percent of each group that is having children. Otherwise you're graphing some bastardization of population size at each percentile (a bell curve) multiplied by a pseudo-randomizing linear decreasing factor (fertility). So you get a graph that looks weird and makes no sense.

15. trallnag ◴[] No.45418171{4}[source]
Bottlenecks of just a few generations should have a huge impact in the longterm, no?
16. seec ◴[] No.45427374{3}[source]
Yes but that's because our current system with the providence state has created "unnatural" pressures where being smarter doesn't correlate that well with wealth past a certain point. In a system where everyone has to be obedient and follow the same solutions as everyone else, you lose agency and that greatly reduces your capacity to make a difference, since those are averaged out on purpose by the system.

In the end what is successful is high-functioning sociopaths, that we can find in all high-power places nowadays. Funnily enough, inequality has increased, and now the wealth of your parents determines your life trajectory much more than even 30 years ago. This is really not surprising, once the exploitative sociopath gets in power, they really don't like fair competition that much.

And this is why both IQ and fertility is going down, it is not a future oriented system. It has a lot to do with the capitalist mindset, where we exploit the earth to the point of making it inhabitable at some point...

17. seec ◴[] No.45427396{4}[source]
It's hilarious but that's kind of what's happening, and that's less funny. If you follow the data to its logical conclusion, we are getting there, the only question is how much time will it take...