←back to thread

1327 points mriguy | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.206s | source
Show context
roughly ◴[] No.45306289[source]
I think there’s plenty of interesting debates to be had about immigration policy and its effects on the labor market, but one thing worth noting here is that the primary problem that damn near every other country on earth has isn’t immigration, it’s brain drain.

A core strategic strength of the US over the last century has been that everyone with any talent wants to come here to work, and by and large we’ve let them do so. You can argue how well that’s worked out for us - having worked with a great many extremely talented H1bs in an industry largely built by immigrants, I’d consider it pretty positive - but it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from.

replies(51): >>45306392 #>>45306449 #>>45306451 #>>45306457 #>>45306462 #>>45306472 #>>45306497 #>>45306499 #>>45306504 #>>45306532 #>>45306544 #>>45306577 #>>45306613 #>>45306652 #>>45306655 #>>45306707 #>>45306784 #>>45306794 #>>45306815 #>>45307051 #>>45307170 #>>45307207 #>>45307249 #>>45307273 #>>45307505 #>>45307522 #>>45307842 #>>45307910 #>>45307954 #>>45308178 #>>45308232 #>>45308290 #>>45308308 #>>45308580 #>>45309297 #>>45309977 #>>45310236 #>>45310640 #>>45310668 #>>45311024 #>>45311194 #>>45312042 #>>45312299 #>>45312339 #>>45312360 #>>45312401 #>>45312861 #>>45312907 #>>45313125 #>>45313178 #>>45314429 #
jpadkins ◴[] No.45306392[source]
The top end of H1B has been great for America. In the last few decades, there has been growth of abuse of the program to get mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America. People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. We need to limit the volume, especially the immigrants that are directly competing with a hollowed out middle class in the US. Let me know if you want further reading on this topic.
replies(36): >>45306429 #>>45306435 #>>45306452 #>>45306463 #>>45306474 #>>45306548 #>>45306582 #>>45306752 #>>45306800 #>>45306892 #>>45306969 #>>45307193 #>>45307317 #>>45307655 #>>45308072 #>>45308087 #>>45308523 #>>45308562 #>>45308675 #>>45309429 #>>45310492 #>>45310518 #>>45310562 #>>45310643 #>>45310674 #>>45310927 #>>45311128 #>>45311281 #>>45311391 #>>45311977 #>>45311996 #>>45312059 #>>45312333 #>>45312341 #>>45312487 #>>45314729 #
legitster ◴[] No.45306474[source]
The median pay of an H1B visa holder is $118k. The 25th percentile is $90k. This is from the government's official data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/O...

Any suggestion that the program is dragging wages down instead of dragging wages up is not just misleading but factually wrong.

replies(17): >>45306529 #>>45306549 #>>45306554 #>>45306556 #>>45306586 #>>45306595 #>>45306610 #>>45306728 #>>45306737 #>>45306859 #>>45306957 #>>45306996 #>>45307224 #>>45307440 #>>45307546 #>>45308398 #>>45310937 #
dgs_sgd ◴[] No.45306586[source]
You seem to be suggesting that the H1B pulls wages up because the median pay is higher than the median overall pay in the country? That’s not a valid comparison, you’d have to compare the H1B’s salary to the median pay in their specialty.
replies(3): >>45306617 #>>45306670 #>>45306723 #
alephnerd ◴[] No.45306617[source]
The math of bringing an employee onsite on an H1B just to depress wages does not work unless it is below the 25th percentile of wages (which is $90k).

Once you are breaking the $100k mark and want to only save costs, you are better off opening a GCC in Eastern Europe, Israel, or India, which is what most companies started doing once remote work became normalized in the early 2020s.

All this did is make a free "Thousand Talents" program for India, especially in chemical, petroleum, biopharma, and biochemical engineering - industries where the delta between US and India salaries aren't significant but the talent gap in the US is real.

There are much smarter ways to crack down on H1B abuse by consultancies - this ain't it.

Edit: can't reply, but here's why this is dumb

Assuming I am in Dallas (a fairly prominent domestic IT services hub) and hiring an H1B employee.

In Dallas, a wage around $95k base is fairly standard based on JPMC, DXC, and C1's salaries in the area.

That $95k an employee is has an additional 18% in employer required taxes and withholdings. Add to that an additional 5-10% for retirement account and insurance plans. That $95k employee became around $115k-125k.

Once salaries start breaking into the 6 figure mark, that 23-35% in overhead starts adding up very fast. On top of that visa processing before this rule costed around $15-20k in additional legal fees on the employer's side.

If I'm at the point where I'm paying a low six figure salary, I'm better off opening an office in Warsaw or Praha or Hyderabad where I can safely pay $50k-60k in base to get top 10% talent while getting a $10k-20k per head tax credit over a 3-5 year period depending on the amount I invest building a GCC because my after tax cost at that point becomes $50-60k per employee. These credits tend to require a $1M investment, and with the proposed H1B fee, this made that kind of FDI much easier to justify than it was before.

At least with the current status quo, if I was hiring an ML Engineer at MS or an SRE at Google (a large number of whom are H1Bs as well), I could justify hiring within the US, but adding an additional $100K filing fee just gives me no incentive at all to expand headcount domestically.

You don't use the stick if you also don't have the carrot.

> You are not taking into account section 174, It takes you 15 years to depreciate foreign salary vs first year

That's a rounding error now that it costs $100K to renew or apply for an H1B visa. And for larger organizations breaking the mid-8 figures in revenue mark, section 174 changes never had an impact one way or the other - it was mostly local dev shops and MSPs that faced the brunt of the section 174 onslaught.

> Honestly, even Germany is probably better bang-for-the-buck than Hyderabad

Germany needs to severely reduce employer contributions and taxes to become cost competitive against Warsaw, Praha, or Hyd for software and chip design jobs.

That said, this is a net positive for Germany's biotech, mechanical, biopharma, and other engineering industries that aren't software or chip design related.

replies(8): >>45306688 #>>45306690 #>>45306711 #>>45307199 #>>45307235 #>>45307497 #>>45308283 #>>45311002 #
snicky ◴[] No.45311002[source]
I don't know much about the other cities you mentioned, but there's no way you could get top developers from Warsaw for $50-60k in 2025. You may be hard pressed to find them even if you 2x that. As a point of reference, a nice family apartment costs around $1M here now. Times they are a-changin.
replies(3): >>45311015 #>>45311016 #>>45312585 #
alephnerd ◴[] No.45312585[source]
> you could get top developers from Warsaw for $50-60k in 2025

We'd be paying that for Early career base (think L3). Mid-career you'd see people breaking the $80-110k base range.

I don't like giving "TC" simply because RSUs are very dependent on a number of outside variables.

And my example was for why a JPMC opens an offshore office abroad, or why a company hires an EPAM type.

For product companies who actually care about work quality, you won't too see much difference between salary abroad and a US salary from 10 years ago. I'd recommend using a fork of the old GitLab comp calculator - it's fairly accurate.

replies(1): >>45313451 #
dzonga ◴[] No.45313451[source]
I don't know why people like arguing with facts.

you're pointing out facts - yet people deny. most software jobs listings are either in eastern europe or india these days. that's the "A.I" eating software jobs.

yeah some companies might list U.S jobs - but they're only seriously hiring for Staff roles. the rest offshored.

replies(1): >>45315315 #
1. alephnerd ◴[] No.45315315[source]
It's been a bad market. A lot of people on HN are ICs who are rightfully stressed and anxious.

The nativism and rejection makes sense with that regards - it's an almost religious hope that stuff will get better.

I just believe in being brutally honest - especially on HN, where I can vent or shine a light on decisions.