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1245 points mriguy | 133 comments | | HN request time: 0.004s | source | bottom
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roughly ◴[] No.45306289[source]
I think there’s plenty of interesting debates to be had about immigration policy and its effects on the labor market, but one thing worth noting here is that the primary problem that damn near every other country on earth has isn’t immigration, it’s brain drain.

A core strategic strength of the US over the last century has been that everyone with any talent wants to come here to work, and by and large we’ve let them do so. You can argue how well that’s worked out for us - having worked with a great many extremely talented H1bs in an industry largely built by immigrants, I’d consider it pretty positive - but it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from.

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jpadkins ◴[] No.45306392[source]
The top end of H1B has been great for America. In the last few decades, there has been growth of abuse of the program to get mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America. People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. We need to limit the volume, especially the immigrants that are directly competing with a hollowed out middle class in the US. Let me know if you want further reading on this topic.
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1. legitster ◴[] No.45306474[source]
The median pay of an H1B visa holder is $118k. The 25th percentile is $90k. This is from the government's official data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/O...

Any suggestion that the program is dragging wages down instead of dragging wages up is not just misleading but factually wrong.

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2. spwa4 ◴[] No.45306529[source]
Haven't you heard how cheating that works? This is what was filled in on the H1B applications. The government doesn't check that, and so companies don't pay.

Second, Indians have to pay their bosses to get a job. Their real pay is at least $20k lower. And there's far worse as well.

replies(1): >>45306692 #
3. foota ◴[] No.45306549[source]
What's the median pay of big tech workers? I started at 150k 8 years ago as a new grad, for comparison.
replies(1): >>45306637 #
4. riku_iki ◴[] No.45306554[source]
your link says that those numbers are after some time spent in US, and initial payment is 75k for 25p and 94k for 50p.

Also, those numbers are bumped up by bigtech who doesn't discriminate by visa, so pays in bodyshops are even lower and tech salaries are way higher than that in US.

5. pants2 ◴[] No.45306556[source]
That tells us nothing without knowing the median pay of the jobs they're replacing.
6. dgs_sgd ◴[] No.45306586[source]
You seem to be suggesting that the H1B pulls wages up because the median pay is higher than the median overall pay in the country? That’s not a valid comparison, you’d have to compare the H1B’s salary to the median pay in their specialty.
replies(3): >>45306617 #>>45306670 #>>45306723 #
7. colordrops ◴[] No.45306595[source]
That's WAY lower than typical tech salaries.
replies(1): >>45309656 #
8. nerpderp82 ◴[] No.45306610[source]
It definitely suppresses TECH worker pay and decreases mobility. For the H1B they become indentured servants often working 60+ hrs a week.

H1B holders are paid less for the same job, keeping wages down.

replies(2): >>45307123 #>>45307430 #
9. alephnerd ◴[] No.45306617[source]
The math of bringing an employee onsite on an H1B just to depress wages does not work unless it is below the 25th percentile of wages (which is $90k).

Once you are breaking the $100k mark and want to only save costs, you are better off opening a GCC in Eastern Europe, Israel, or India, which is what most companies started doing once remote work became normalized in the early 2020s.

All this did is make a free "Thousand Talents" program for India, especially in chemical, petroleum, biopharma, and biochemical engineering - industries where the delta between US and India salaries aren't significant but the talent gap in the US is real.

There are much smarter ways to crack down on H1B abuse by consultancies - this ain't it.

Edit: can't reply, but here's why this is dumb

Assuming I am in Dallas (a fairly prominent domestic IT services hub) and hiring an H1B employee.

In Dallas, a wage around $95k base is fairly standard based on JPMC, DXC, and C1's salaries in the area.

That $95k an employee is has an additional 18% in employer required taxes and withholdings. Add to that an additional 5-10% for retirement account and insurance plans. That $95k employee became around $115k-125k.

Once salaries start breaking into the 6 figure mark, that 23-35% in overhead starts adding up very fast. On top of that visa processing before this rule costed around $15-20k in additional legal fees on the employer's side.

If I'm at the point where I'm paying a low six figure salary, I'm better off opening an office in Warsaw or Praha or Hyderabad where I can safely pay $50k-60k in base to get top 10% talent while getting a $10k-20k per head tax credit over a 3-5 year period depending on the amount I invest building a GCC because my after tax cost at that point becomes $50-60k per employee. These credits tend to require a $1M investment, and with the proposed H1B fee, this made that kind of FDI much easier to justify than it was before.

At least with the current status quo, if I was hiring an ML Engineer at MS or an SRE at Google (a large number of whom are H1Bs as well), I could justify hiring within the US, but adding an additional $100K filing fee just gives me no incentive at all to expand headcount domestically.

You don't use the stick if you also don't have the carrot.

> You are not taking into account section 174, It takes you 15 years to depreciate foreign salary vs first year

That's a rounding error now that it costs $100K to renew or apply for an H1B visa. And for larger organizations breaking the mid-8 figures in revenue mark, section 174 changes never had an impact one way or the other - it was mostly local dev shops and MSPs that faced the brunt of the section 174 onslaught.

> Honestly, even Germany is probably better bang-for-the-buck than Hyderabad

Germany needs to severely reduce employer contributions and taxes to become cost competitive against Warsaw, Praha, or Hyd for software and chip design jobs.

That said, this is a net positive for Germany's biotech, mechanical, biopharma, and other engineering industries that aren't software or chip design related.

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10. legitster ◴[] No.45306637[source]
OP's comment still makes no sense then. H1bs are not hollowing out "middle class" wage earners then - the most you could say is that they are slightly reducing income of high-income earners.

But also, the H1b median salary for a software engineer is ~$120k, which is almost identical to that of the US median overall - so all of this hullabaloo seems pretty groundless.

replies(5): >>45306678 #>>45306930 #>>45307106 #>>45307145 #>>45307285 #
11. guywithahat ◴[] No.45306670[source]
Not only that, but you'd have to do a study to show that the talent couldn't have been trained in the US, and that an increased supply of workers didn't drag down salaries, either short or long-term. Immigration helps the countries top-line metrics, but it rarely helps the citizens inside the country.
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12. alephnerd ◴[] No.45306678{3}[source]
Pretty much. All this did is now create a thousand talents program for India.

H1B visa abuse by consultancies and mass recruiters is a real issue, but this now incentivized companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, Pfizer, Cheveron etc to expand their Indian offices.

Edit: can't reply

> Was there any reason for them not to? It's cheaper than H1B anyways.

Spending an additional $10-15k in visa filing fees isn't that big of a deal for an employer who's already paying around 25-35% in withholding and benefits, but at $100K that makes it enough that if you needed to sponsor 10 people on an H1B, you now hit the monetary amount to avail GCC tax rebates and subsidies in most of Eastern Europe and India, where they will give you an additional $10-20k in tax credits and subsidies per head.

Basically, opening a new office abroad just to save on $10-15k of filing fees per employees wasn't worth it, but now that it'll be $100k per employee, the math just shifted.

> Why is this parasitic organization allowed to incorporate?

VC now, not a director anymore. But help me find a new grad with 3-4 years of exploit development and OS internals experience in the US. I can't.

On the other hand, I can in Tel Aviv. There's a reason the entire cybersecurity industry has shifted outside the US.

Large sectors of the US tech scene just lack ANY domestic know-how.

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13. dgs_sgd ◴[] No.45306688{3}[source]
I’m sorry but I don’t follow. What bearing does the 25th percentile H1B wage have on suppressing wages in a particular role or specialty?
14. Vvector ◴[] No.45306690{3}[source]
If the local market for American DBAs is $180k, then hiring H1B DBAs at $110k does depress wages.
replies(1): >>45310424 #
15. mikestorrent ◴[] No.45306692[source]
Do you have any articles or anything on the latter? I had not heard of that.
replies(1): >>45311236 #
16. nobodyandproud ◴[] No.45306711{3}[source]
Care to provide a google sheets outlining why it doesn’t work?
17. legitster ◴[] No.45306723[source]
You can! If you look at the report it breaks down H1b pay range by occupation and education level.

An H1b software engineer median is ~$120k.

Using other official sources, the median pay for US software engineers overall is... ~$120k.

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18. nothercastle ◴[] No.45306728[source]
You aren’t accounting for hours worked. Your H1B are probably putting in 30-50% more hours and with put up with any bullshit you dish out.
19. kelnos ◴[] No.45306737[source]
Can you explain how those statistics support your conclusion? I don't see the link you're drawing between them.

I also am not convinced that those statistics alone can be used to draw such a conclusion; there's more to it than that.

20. dgs_sgd ◴[] No.45306753{3}[source]
Interesting. I think this gets at guywithhat’s sibling comment:

> you'd have to do a study to show that the talent couldn't have been trained in the US, and that an increased supply of workers didn't drag down salaries, either short or long-term.

If the median H1B for software is exactly the same as the overall median, it makes you wonder if the median would be different if the H1B was not an option available to employers.

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21. thatfrenchguy ◴[] No.45306806{3}[source]
> An H1b software engineer median is ~$120k.

Base salary, not total comp, the first year

22. reliabilityguy ◴[] No.45306846{3}[source]
> An H1b software engineer median is ~$120k.

> Using other official sources, the median pay for US software engineers overall is... ~$120k.

So, it seems that if we remove H1b workers and assume that the demand would have stayed the same, then domestic salaries should have been higher. Assuming, of course, that companies won’t simply offshore.

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23. giantg2 ◴[] No.45306859[source]
We would have to look at that by industry. For example, if median developer pay is $130k, then both of your numbers are below that and would bring the median down. $118k for highly skilled workers (purpose of H1B) seems low to me. Additionally, the upper bound for the middle class in all 50 states is above $100k.
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24. giantg2 ◴[] No.45306888{3}[source]
Median salary for a software engineer according to BLS is over that - around $133k.
25. _DeadFred_ ◴[] No.45306915{4}[source]
OK. But I'm not fighting against them for jobs here. I'm not fighting against H1Bs who are willing to put up with different shared housing situations than I am for housing here.
26. skydhash ◴[] No.45306916{4}[source]
Maybe? But what about training and talent pool? Imagine how many companies would not take off because there’s no one to implement the founder’s idea. Imagine you’re a startup and you have hiring difficulties because all the good ones are over at Oracle or Microsoft (doubting the existence of FAANG).
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27. giantg2 ◴[] No.45306930{3}[source]
The median is actually $133k per the BLS.

The upperbound for middle class pay is over $100k in all states, approaching $200k in a couple.

28. giantg2 ◴[] No.45306950{4}[source]
"...to expand their Indian offices."

Was there any reason for them not to? It's cheaper than H1B anyways.

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29. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45306957[source]
Citations of broad H-1B visa abuse:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45305623

30. lucketone ◴[] No.45306986{4}[source]
It would definitely be higher.

Lower supply tends to drive the price up.

replies(1): >>45307484 #
31. kypro ◴[] No.45306996[source]
> Any suggestion that the program is dragging wages down instead of dragging wages up is not just misleading but factually wrong.

The stats you provide here don't support your claim.

H1B visa holders can be paid more on average while still having a downward effect on wages...

Imagine that some car model costs $200,000 to buy in the US. However, an entrepreneur realises they can can import the same car from a poorer country for just $100,000 then sell it in the US for less than the manufacturer themselves. The manufacturer finds out about this and says, "hey! you're selling my car for less", but the importer says, "no, actually, you'll find the median car in the US is $50,000 so I'm technically increasing car prices".

So what you're saying could be wrong in two ways... One you could be wrong in the sense that even if it does increase median wages, that doesn't mean it necessary increases the median wage of US citizens if now a significant percentage the best employment opportunities are going to H1B visa holders instead of citizens.

But secondly, and the point I was trying to make with the car analogy, is that you could be wrong about the average wages going up too if H1B visa holders are taking jobs which would pay even more were it not for HB1 visas. So if the average wage of a SWE in the US is say $150k, but the average H1B visa holder is being paid $120k, H1Bs are clearly not "dragging wages up".

And realistically it's far more likely H1B visa holders suppress wages given how relatively high US wages are.

I'll end this comment by saying that personally I think this idea that giving the best opportunities to immigrants is probably directly wrong for many reasons. Of course, allowing in businesses and individuals who will create jobs makes a lot of sense, but what you really want is the best opportunities going to your own citizens, then to bring in cheap labour to fill the crappy jobs citizens don't really want to do, but are now increasingly doing when they leave university like working in a bar or becoming a barista. If there's a great job a company can't fill with the domestic workforce perhaps they should train someone for that role or take a risk on a recent graduate like in the old days?

32. valkmit ◴[] No.45307012{4}[source]
The assumption that companies won't offshore is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Companies already do a lot of offshoring - you think any rational actor in this space that was hiring H1Bs isn't going to simply relocate them to more friendly jurisdictions for immigration?

On top of this, these are workers who would have otherwise paid tax in the US!

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33. reliabilityguy ◴[] No.45307017{5}[source]
Maybe, maybe not. Too many factors to consider, and it’s extremely hard to get a definitive answer.
34. myrmidon ◴[] No.45307040{4}[source]
You also get the baumol effect increasing wages even for unrelated sectors (sounds helpful at first).

The flipside is that every american industry becomes less competitive globally without the H1b guys.

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35. A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 ◴[] No.45307106{3}[source]
<< the most you could say is that they are slightly reducing income of high-income earners

First, I would like you to reconsider 'high income' and putting $120k in that category. It was a good chunk of change. In this year of our lord 2025, it is not. It is, for my region anyway, barely acceptable middle class income.

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36. rramadass ◴[] No.45307123[source]
No.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45306919

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37. rramadass ◴[] No.45307145{3}[source]
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45306919
38. myrmidon ◴[] No.45307199{3}[source]
> Praha

This is a pet peeve of mine, but there is an english name for that city and it's Prague.

There is no point in using the local spelling because it adds no clarity, is less obvious to pronounce for any reader and the locals are not really gonna thank you for doing this either. Just seems like a form of light cultural white-knighting to me.

You are not even consistent because Warsaw is not how locals spell that.

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39. charliea0 ◴[] No.45307224[source]
A better perspective is that the median H1B holder created $100k+ worth of value for some US company. Salaries are lower than the value you create, or else your employer would stop paying you.

There could be some rare edge case where you are undercut by a direct competitor, but overall America is much richer with H1Bs that without them.

replies(1): >>45307646 #
40. streetcat1 ◴[] No.45307235{3}[source]
You are not taking into account section 174, It takes you 15 years to depreciate foreign salary vs first year (post the BBB).
41. scarface_74 ◴[] No.45307285{3}[source]
How many H1B workers do the WITCH companies employ? They are definitely competing with the “middle class”.
42. red_rech ◴[] No.45307296{4}[source]
So you’re going to hire foreigners in the US or you’re going to ship the whole operation overseas. Why is this parasitic organization allowed to incorporate?
43. TMWNN ◴[] No.45307311{5}[source]
>you think any rational actor in this space that was hiring H1Bs isn't going to simply relocate them to more friendly jurisdictions for immigration?

This was true before and after today.

Put another way, if all the H-1B jobs really can be offshored quickly and easily the way so many Indians and anti-Trump people here and elsewhere confidently predict, *that would have happened already*.

replies(1): >>45308006 #
44. sciencesama ◴[] No.45307334{5}[source]
We can arrest all of them and send them back like in hyundai !
replies(1): >>45307841 #
45. myrmidon ◴[] No.45307366{4}[source]
If you barely consider yourself middle-class with an income 50% over the median then you are probably at least living in a "high income" region :P

And your self-classification is questionable, but that is very common. Maybe a good trigger to experience gratefulness and satisfaction for the economical situation you are in?

replies(2): >>45309148 #>>45312450 #
46. runako ◴[] No.45307370{4}[source]
The median income in San Francisco is $69k. In New York City, it's $41k. Median household incomes are ~2x those numbers.

A $120k job in any region of the country is 'high income'. You are feeling a different effect, which is that we have designed our country such that even high income people often do not feel economically secure.

replies(1): >>45309114 #
47. sgc ◴[] No.45307388{3}[source]
There used to be a much stronger push for education in the US. Perhaps if companies could not "just hire from overseas" or "just outsource" there would be a longer term growth strategy that would focus more on the education of the US population (not just training for this or that job).

It did seem in the past that there was much more of an all-hands-on-deck attitude towards education throughout US corporate activities, more broadly focused on the general fields the various companies valued the most. I suspect this fall off is very real, but don't actually know if that is just my impression or if there is a concrete effect from modern economic structures.

It's an important enough question it should definitely be studied and taken into account in policy.

However I can't agree with your conclusion that "Immigration helps the countries [sic] top-line metrics, but it rarely helps the citizens inside the country". That requires meta studies that I have never seen to prove it is so. I could cautiously accept that "some types of immigration rarely help corresponding sections of the local population" much more than such a blanket judgement. Overall, it is just not true that economics is zero sum. It doesn't have to be. An entire people can in fact flourish.

replies(2): >>45308163 #>>45311245 #
48. laurencerowe ◴[] No.45307430[source]
While the permanent residence process is clearly broken for people from India and China, I don't think it's accurate to characterise H1B workers as indentured servants. The paperwork for changing jobs on an H1B is fairly easy and is not subject to the H1B lottery.

Cap-exempt H1B holders working for universities are restricted to switching only to other cap-exempt employers, but even then I never felt I had to work 60+ hours a week.

replies(2): >>45308091 #>>45309637 #
49. diogenescynic ◴[] No.45307440[source]
I've seen other analysis showing the 80% of the wages are below the prevailing wage of the equivalent role. It's definitely about wage suppression and having an indentured servant.
50. bigfatkitten ◴[] No.45307446{5}[source]
Because being in roughly the same timezone as the people you’re managing is underrated.
replies(2): >>45307501 #>>45308090 #
51. ajross ◴[] No.45307467{4}[source]
Whoa whoa whoa, that's (1) not correct[1], but (2) shameless goalpost motion in any case.

The whole premise of your original contention was that we should measure like-profession salaries to see whether or not there is an effect. Then when no effect was shown, you switched it up in favor of an argument that (again, incorrectly) predicts that such an effect can't be shown at all. That's not good faith discussion.

[1] Immigrant labor is arriving, by definition, in a pre-existing market. If immigrants can't be hired more cheaply than existing labor, by definition they can't be pulling wages down.

52. DaveZale ◴[] No.45307484{5}[source]
I saw this in my specialized science field too, in California a couple of decades ago. Real wages for that work have dropped 5 fold at least, partly due to automation, but I saw labs that were 100% immigrants, many H1Bs. Not complaining, just observing. were H1Bs necessary though? No. Many US born in that field found themselves jobless upon graduation. It was all about cheap labor
replies(1): >>45307799 #
53. prpl ◴[] No.45307497{3}[source]
Hyderabad is not that cheap for the top 10%, probably closer 90-100k base.

Honestly, even Germany is probably better bang-for-the-buck than Hyderabad, but Hyderabad has the volume and the offices.

54. giantg2 ◴[] No.45307501{6}[source]
This is mostly just a benefit for mixed teams. If you have entire departments offshore, then you have less cross-zone interaction.
55. mancerayder ◴[] No.45307546[source]
Your second paragraph doesn't follow the first. 90-118K might feel like a lot to you, or to many, but it doesn't mean that those wages aren't dragged DOWN. If you live in SF, NYC, Seattle or other HCOL areas, 90-118K is definitely not HIGH. And software jobs pay WAY more than that. H1's definitely are paid BELOW the prevailing wage for the same job, in the same area. So compare apples to apples.
56. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45307646[source]
Value for who? Certainly not the majority of Americans. Depressed wages increase profits, which go to shareholders. Most Americans do not benefit from the H-1B grift. I’ll even argue it hurts US citizens by importing immigrants who aren’t necessary from a labor supply perspective (for those on the visa who are not exceptional talent), who compete for housing with citizens when there is a shortage of millions of housing units.

A few select tech and financial services companies, and their shareholders, benefit the most from the program.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/03/04/what-we-k...

https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=201754

replies(2): >>45307987 #>>45309354 #
57. AtlasBarfed ◴[] No.45307790{3}[source]
If h1bs are statistically a lot more centered in higher income urban areas, while overall populations of a given profession are more evenly distributed across the country...

Then that $120,000 salary median can still represent a 50% undercut of similar Urban salaries for a profession.

I'm going to contend that that is the case. But I don't have time to chase down the statistics

replies(1): >>45310380 #
58. stanford_labrat ◴[] No.45307799{6}[source]
yup, anecdotally the majority of postdocs these days are internationals who are willing to work 60+ hour weeks on $50k a year, for the infinitesimal chance to land a R1 tenure-track faculty position. americans have no interest in getting a phd and then subjecting themselves to this kind of indentured servitude.
59. nxm ◴[] No.45307841{6}[source]
If they don’t have valid visas for the kind of work they were doing, like was the case for Hyundai, then the indeed were breaking the law
60. jameshart ◴[] No.45307856{4}[source]
Overall the US economy employs about 800,000 software engineers, with 200,000 or so of them being H1B holders.

Now you can argue you would prefer that those 200,000 jobs go to Americans, but on the scale of the overall economy, it really doesn’t matter. What’s far more important is the massive impact those 800,000 software engineers have on the rest of the economy. Four million IT jobs, the entire finance and healthcare and retail industries that are propped up on technology built by those people; whole technology companies like Uber or doordash that create entirely new labor markets.

Risk 25% of that capacity on the idea that we would rather have those industries built solely on domestically-grown engineering talent? Why would that be a good tradeoff?

replies(1): >>45309860 #
61. charliea0 ◴[] No.45307987{3}[source]
I hire a programmer to code my app, SuperConnect++. I charge $0.99 to download the app. People buy the app if it's worth more than $0.99 to them.

If 150,000 people buy the app, then I have ~$150,000 of revenue. I can pay a programmer $100,000 a year and have $50,000 left over. 150,000 people benefited from the app.

Now say I have to pay an additional $100,000 visa fee for my programmer. My cost of $200,000 is less than my revenue of $150,000. I don't build the app. I don't get $50,000. 150,000 people who would have bought the app don't benefit from it. The biggest loss is to the Americans who don't get to buy the app.

There are other possibilities, maybe I increase the price to $1.99 or I hire an American. We can see that those are both bad. The former extracts $150,000 extra dollars from American consumers. Since unemployment is low for Americans and an American programmer can't have two jobs at once, the later just means that some other project that the American programmer would have worked on is not completed.

replies(2): >>45308015 #>>45308022 #
62. valkmit ◴[] No.45308006{6}[source]
I'd argue that it doesn't happen more because it's (relatively) easy to bring labor onshore.

But yes, if that path doesn't exist, I don't think that global companies are going to start hiring American, they're going to continue hiring globally but take the path of least resistance towards bringing this talent onboard.

63. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45308015{4}[source]
Unemployment for tech workers is not currently low, and it is taking months, or even years to find a new role, therefore this argument doesn’t hold water. Wages > consumer excess and profits. The world will go on if you don’t build the app, and perhaps someone else will. The evidence is clear this visa is abused at scale, and this action has been overdue.

https://www.epi.org/blog/tech-and-outsourcing-companies-cont...

https://www.epi.org/publication/new-evidence-widespread-wage...

replies(1): >>45308044 #
64. charliea0 ◴[] No.45308022{4}[source]
To make this concrete, suppose that Elon Musk never immigrated to the US. SpaceX and Tesla are never founded, or are founded in some other country.

The American electric car market is never kickstarted, none of the American employees of SpaceX or Tesla are hired, there is no space renaissance.

Keeping out Elon Musk is somewhat good for United Launch Alliance and for Ford, but it's worse for all the Americans who have to buy worse cars and pay more for satellite internet.

replies(2): >>45308352 #>>45308691 #
65. charliea0 ◴[] No.45308044{5}[source]
The unemployment rate in the information-technology job market is 4.5%?
replies(1): >>45308049 #
66. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45308049{6}[source]
Over 650k tech layoffs have occurred in the last 4 years. Companies have tried as hard as they can to offshore and use visa labor to avoid hiring US citizen workers. This doesn’t account for new job creation needed for workers entering the workforce. Corporations are also hiding jobs from US citizens (citations which you can find in my other recent comments).

https://layoffs.fyi/

Ask HN: Has anyone else been unemployed for over two years? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45306539 - September 2025

Ask HN: Recent unemployed CS grad what do I do? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43211153 - March 2025

https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/state-of-the-tech...

https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/04/it_job_market_july/

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/job-market-report-c...

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/06/unemployment-job-market-edu...

https://old.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/1kcc40j/what_happ...

https://apnews.com/article/college-graduates-job-market-unem...

replies(1): >>45308221 #
67. evan_ ◴[] No.45308061{4}[source]
you'd really need to look at the median pay for specifically companies that hire a lot of H1b SWEs. I'd suspect that would be higher.
68. Tadpole9181 ◴[] No.45308082{5}[source]
It feels as if you're insinuating that we shouldn't be taking measures to prevent offshoring and there's nothing to do but allow our labor markets to be subverted.
69. kelvinjps ◴[] No.45308090{6}[source]
Does it matter for a company at the size of Google?
replies(1): >>45311515 #
70. Tadpole9181 ◴[] No.45308091{3}[source]
You would need to get another job, unlike a citizen. It need not be said how that's a significant barrier to resisting your employer, no?
replies(1): >>45308348 #
71. typewithrhythm ◴[] No.45308163{4}[source]
It's so hard to study; one of the key things you loose in an environment where you bring in bulk migrants is a cultural expectation to interact with juniors that are part of your community.

It's not just a supply and demand equation; it's a fundamentally different environment that changes the social payoff for mentoring, networking, and building a reputation.

Ultimately despite all the propaganda trying to convince us that diversity is inherently beneficial, we are trading economic benefits for social costs. So we need to carefully restrict migration to make sure the economic benefits are actually there.

replies(1): >>45308718 #
72. kalkin ◴[] No.45308210{3}[source]
> Immigration helps the countries top-line metrics, but it rarely helps the citizens inside the country.

What study does one "have to do" to support _this_ claim?

replies(1): >>45310973 #
73. charliea0 ◴[] No.45308221{7}[source]
Given all of that, the unemployment rate is still only 4.5%.
replies(1): >>45308261 #
74. nerpderp82 ◴[] No.45308234{3}[source]
> In 2021, the median wage of an H-1B worker was $108,000, compared to $45,760 for U.S. workers in general.

This compares medians across to huge populations. I have seen many H1Bs making less and working more.

replies(2): >>45308457 #>>45309802 #
75. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45308261{8}[source]
Sounds like the metric is unreliable and cannot be trusted as input for policy, based on the evidence and ground truth.

U-6 (the most inclusive unemployment rate) is 8.1 as of this comment, the highest it’s been in the last five years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

So, start cutting labor visas until the unemployment rate improves. The domestic labor clearly exists.

76. _DeadFred_ ◴[] No.45308262{3}[source]
The problem you will have selling this to this crowd is we have been in the meetings. We know that 'we're going to use a consulting team on this' means lower wages. We know that 'we going to outsource this' to a company full of H1Bs is being done... to lower costs.

Maybe at FAANGs what you say is true. But at every place I've been when H1Bs ended up added (normally via consultancy or outsourcing) it was always to cut costs. And the only costs we were cutting was staff.

77. _DeadFred_ ◴[] No.45308283{3}[source]
I guess all those management meetings where we brought on teams staffed by H1Bs in order to cut costs, when our only costs were wages, didn't make sense.

Funny things is the agencies/consultancies/outsource companies all solds us on it would cut costs when the only thing changed was labor. But apparently they could cut costs without cutting labor costs? How does that work?

78. Johnny555 ◴[] No.45308315{3}[source]
I don't think you have to show that the talent couldn't have been trained in the USA (or rather, it couldn't have been trained into USA workers), but that the talent wasn't trained in the USA so bringing in an outside worker is the only way to hire for the position.

You can't really expect a company hiring PhD's in a niche field to show that they couldn't have spent 7 years training an American for the work.

replies(2): >>45310399 #>>45310955 #
79. _DeadFred_ ◴[] No.45308348{4}[source]
Another job willing to do the paperwork, willing to sponsor, that has access to an immigration lawyer. It's not just 'finding a job' it's finding a job at a company willing/able to do all that. It's definitely a much higher bar.
replies(1): >>45308618 #
80. sokoloff ◴[] No.45308352{5}[source]
To make this concrete, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning founded Tesla Motors. Musk later invested and, most certainly, made it vastly more successful than the two founders were on track to do, but Tesla Motors was already founded without requiring Musk's immigration to the US.
replies(1): >>45308421 #
81. kevin_thibedeau ◴[] No.45308398[source]
Guest workers have no long term stake in living in the US unless they win a green card. Six years and they're out. Given this state of affairs, they will be compliant and not demand increasing compensation when they don't have to plan for a future in the US. Get too uppity and you get the boot. The suppression is hidden within this dynamic and sinks the prevailing wage for all workers.
82. charliea0 ◴[] No.45308421{6}[source]
That's a very fair point. :)
83. t-3 ◴[] No.45308457{4}[source]
Both can be true. H-1B's earn less than their domestic peers, but far more than the domestic underclass they are brought in to keep down.
84. laurencerowe ◴[] No.45308618{5}[source]
The paperwork is far less onerous than for sponsoring a new immigrant.

In my experience recruiters saw H1B transfers as routine but would ghost me once I explained that I required a new visa sponsorship since I worked or a cap-exempt employer and could not simply transfer.

replies(1): >>45310750 #
85. shagie ◴[] No.45308625[source]
The H-1B also includes professions like teacher and medical technician where the average wage is closer to $60k / year. Doing a broad "all professions" for H-1B misses out on the various areas where they work and appears to assume that they are all professions that regularly pay in the 90th percentile of American overall wages.
86. kashunstva ◴[] No.45308691{5}[source]
> suppose that Elon Musk never immigrated to the US

That’s certainly one version of how events may have been different - a sort of “It’s a Wonderful Life” scenario. (Though comparing Elon Musk to the kind and ethical George Bailey would be quite a stretch!) But it’s not inconceivable that other possibilities would have emerged.

87. mc32 ◴[] No.45308695{4}[source]
It's a peeve of mine as well moreso when they don't carry it out for English placenames that get transliterated into a local language but some of these folks will carry the localized version -like they won't insist on "New York" instead of Nova Iorque in PR or BR. But even above, they are inconsistent with Warsaw carrying the English spelling.
88. infinite8s ◴[] No.45308718{5}[source]
The economic benefits are clear - what social costs are you taking about?
replies(1): >>45310130 #
89. A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 ◴[] No.45309114{5}[source]
Stop. Just because that is the median income does not automatically make it high. The value of the income comes from what it is able to purchase. That value has been steadily eroded over the year. If anything, it is indictment of the existing system. If anything, the proper way of looking at it is that the actual value you are able to get for your work has been greatly reduced. The number is meaningless to anyone, who is able to look at basic reality ( or does not depend on status quo for one reason or another ).

The sheer balls on people to suggest that high absolute value automatically means it is high. And that is before we get to how those jobs are are not even in the same category...

I am going to stop here, because I don't want to get mean.

90. A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 ◴[] No.45309148{5}[source]
I think you misunderstand me greatly and, more importantly, greatly misunderstand the zeitgeist. I am unbelievably thankful for being paid for what I am doing the amount I am paid.

But, and this is the most important part, just because I am in better situation than most, does not make the overall state of the population that much less shitty.

Am I getting through to you?

replies(1): >>45310448 #
91. liquid_thyme ◴[] No.45309354{3}[source]
> who compete for housing with citizens when there is a shortage of millions of housing units.

Are they underpaid, or are they swimming in cash to buy up all the expensive housing? Make up your mind.

replies(1): >>45309417 #
92. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.45309417{4}[source]
It can be both. Median price of a home is $400k. Homebuyers need household income of ~$117k to afford typical home in U.S. Their income from ther visa enables their buying power to compete against citizens. About 300k H-1B visa holders own homes in the US per FWD.US. Other comments in this thread speak to the wage suppression and lower wages.

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/home-affordability-in-c...

replies(1): >>45309614 #
93. liquid_thyme ◴[] No.45309614{5}[source]
There is shortage of everything now. Maybe immigrants needing gas is raising gas prices too. (OK, i know you didn't say that, but its a joke :P) We could go back and forth posting links that contradict each other, or recognize that scapegoating immigrants isn't productive.

https://www.uschamber.com/economy/the-state-of-housing-in-am...

"The shortage of housing can be attributed to a range of regulatory and policy failures. These include burdensome permitting processes, outdated zoning regulations that dictate everything from lot sizes to parking requirements, complex legal frameworks, price controls, and restrictive financial regulations."

94. nerpderp82 ◴[] No.45309637{3}[source]
I am specifically talking about tech, I personally knew many H1B folks that worked insane hours literally so that they were seen as ultra productive and wouldn't get cut.
95. rr808 ◴[] No.45309656[source]
In tech hubs maybe, in the rest of the country its high.
96. rramadass ◴[] No.45309802{4}[source]
It is the distribution that matters at a wage level cluster defined by DOL. There are four (i.e. entry, qualified, experienced, and fully competent) and those are higher than the medians.

See also Understanding H-1B Minimum Salary Requirements for Eligibility - https://day1cpt.org/news/understanding-h-1b-minimum-salary-r...

97. mbac32768 ◴[] No.45309860{5}[source]
It's ludicrous. US companies will not be able to dig up 200,000 qualified software engineers in the domestic population while every other skilled profession is experiencing a similar brain drain.

The prospect of a $100k/year/employee visa tax makes opening an office in Europe so much more compelling.

I guess the people who can't be offshored will see their salaries go up so that's cool?

replies(1): >>45310292 #
98. typewithrhythm ◴[] No.45310130{6}[source]
The economic benefits are really not clear; at least not without caveats and clear conditions for the advanced skills that make a migrant beneficial.

This is if you believe that lower wages for high skill work is not an issue.

However high migration rates lower social trust, this is well studied.

If you take a smaller example, hiring internationally vs domestically. If you have to go domestic then you might have to settle for a less ideal qualification, requiring more training.

This is repeated everywhere, so companies that train better are more likely to succeed. Leading to conditions that encourage upskilling for locals overall.

Importing people short circuits that idea.

99. rcpt ◴[] No.45310251{3}[source]
> show that the talent couldn't have been trained in the US

The admin has been cutting billions in funding to universities which makes this argument easier.

Need an expert in arithmetic combinatorics? Well Terry Tao lost his grants so now you've got to look elsewhere.

100. mlrtime ◴[] No.45310292{6}[source]
"Computer science ranked seventh amongst undergraduate majors with the highest unemployment at 6.1 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York."

https://www.newsweek.com/computer-science-popular-college-ma...

Obviously there is not going to be a drop of 200k overnight, but I think the graduates of CS will be thankful there are more opportunities for them. These opportunities will drive more students to take CS classes in the US.

replies(1): >>45312518 #
101. jopsen ◴[] No.45310380{4}[source]
Underpaid or overpaid doesn't really matter.

Sure it's sound to argue that wages would be higher with more constraint supply.

BUT: The network effect of all SWE talent from across the globe moving to the US is also huge.

Probably, you'd have a smaller overall tax base without H1B. Make no mistake most countries would like to keep their H1B expats :)

If you really wanted to grow US supply of engineers, you'd have to start by fixing the education system, making it cheaper, and then wait 5 years.

102. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.45310399{4}[source]
> You can't really expect a company hiring PhD's in a niche field to show that they couldn't have spent 7 years training an American for the work

I don't believe for even an instant that there is a significant amount of immigration happening to bring in people who are that specialized

Some, maybe. But not the vast majority of it

103. jopsen ◴[] No.45310424{4}[source]
Sure, but if the local market is that high you probably have sever supply constraints.

If you don't fix the supply constraints, you'll depress growth.

You could fix the education system - good luck - and then wait 5 years before you cut H1B.

But yes, obviously it depressed wages, which at a certain point is probably a good thing.

104. jopsen ◴[] No.45310448{6}[source]
> does not make the overall state of the population that much less shitty.

Has it ever been better?

Not saying it shouldn't, just that we might have unrealistic expectations.

replies(3): >>45310758 #>>45311330 #>>45313099 #
105. 15155 ◴[] No.45310750{6}[source]
The point is that it is a non-zero amount of effort and cost, creating a second class of employees.
106. ◴[] No.45310758{7}[source]
107. dinkumthinkum ◴[] No.45310937[source]
Are you really not familiar with management and corporations? Firstly, stating those numbers does not prove your point but it is all belied by exactly the reason all of us that are aware of the realities know, which is that for the most part part H-1Bs are sought after because of them being cheaper. The implications from those like Gates, that the average person in the U.S. on an H-1B is a Turing or Wozniak or whatever is laughable, This is not to denigrate them but the so-called "genius visa" is a farce and the notion that there are not Americans that can do the jobs is also quite ridiculous. These things are heavily gamed and people from the countries that produce the majority of such applicants know that. I think you if you analyze it further, you may find it is all a lot more cynical than you might suspect. Why do you think H-1B visa holders in tech primarily come from a small set of countries that are not centers of tech innovation? Is it really that Europeans can't figure out bubble-sort?
108. dinkumthinkum ◴[] No.45310955{4}[source]
That's so funny. You realize there is already an O-1 visa, right? I hate to be a bearer of bad news but the vast, vast majority of H-1Bs are not PhD holders for which no suitable American PhD exists. If you go out into to the working world for awhile, you'll see that.
109. NoMoreNicksLeft ◴[] No.45310963{4}[source]
Exonyms are colonialism.
replies(1): >>45311110 #
110. esalman ◴[] No.45310973{4}[source]
There's plenty to deny this claim.

Immigrants make up 14% of the population but make up over 20% of entrepreneurs. 44% of fortune 500 company founders were either born outside US or to immigrant parents in the US.

replies(2): >>45310986 #>>45310987 #
111. ◴[] No.45310986{5}[source]
112. N2yhWNXQN3k9 ◴[] No.45310987{5}[source]
Those are stats published by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Immigration_Lawyers_A...

They seem roughly correct

113. snicky ◴[] No.45311002{3}[source]
I don't know much about the other cities you mentioned, but there's no way you could get top developers from Warsaw for $50-60k in 2025. You may be hard pressed to find them even if you 2x that. As a point of reference, a nice family apartment costs around $1M here now. Times they are a-changin.
replies(3): >>45311015 #>>45311016 #>>45312585 #
114. ◴[] No.45311015{4}[source]
115. N2yhWNXQN3k9 ◴[] No.45311016{4}[source]
Then what would the salary be? If I am hard-pressed to hire at 120k?
replies(2): >>45311072 #>>45311226 #
116. snicky ◴[] No.45311072{5}[source]
Of course it all depends on who are we actually talking about. I think talented seniors with 5-10yoe and proper communication skills expect North of $150k.
replies(1): >>45311114 #
117. otabdeveloper4 ◴[] No.45311110{5}[source]
Eh, no?

The most prominent exonyms are of cities like Paris, London, Moscow or Beijing.

I.e., places culturally and historically significant enough that older historical pronunciations have become ossified in foreign languages.

English having a "Prague" spelling means the name of the city was important enough to have entered the English language back in the day when English was still borrowing heavily from French.

118. N2yhWNXQN3k9 ◴[] No.45311114{6}[source]
Interesting, there are plenty of localities in the US that hire 5-10yoe developers at south of $100k.

You can see this in BLS data.

Is there a good resource for data on wages in Poland? I mean, I am going to look, but I thought I'd ask.

replies(1): >>45311489 #
119. prasoonds ◴[] No.45311226{5}[source]
Offering a perspective from Berlin - a decent-to-good senior engineer goes for $120k-$130k so I'm guessing for Warsaw, you could get someone similar for $90k-100k
replies(1): >>45313347 #
120. spwa4 ◴[] No.45311236{3}[source]
Easy to find:

https://www.epi.org/publication/new-evidence-widespread-wage...

https://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-pr...

https://www.aila.org/ice-it-company-pleads-guilty-h-1b-visa-...

https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-recognize-and...

121. diffrinse ◴[] No.45311245{4}[source]
>Perhaps if companies could not "just hire from overseas" or "just outsource" there would be a longer term growth strategy that would focus more on the education of the US population (not just training for this or that job).

Except the Heritage Foundation, er, I mean, Trump Administration controls all 3 branches of government and has all the freedom in the world to power a resuscitation of public education in America, except they're not interested in that at all; quite the opposite, they want to further fragment education baselines and make secondary education less desirable.

replies(1): >>45312474 #
122. reverius42 ◴[] No.45311330{7}[source]
Housing affordability was better from 2009-2021 than now. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/data-and-tools/home-owne...

Total national health expenditures have grown much faster than population growth: https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spe...

And yet, over the same time period, life expectancy hasn't gone up that much: https://datacommons.org/tools/visualization#visType%3Dtimeli...

123. snicky ◴[] No.45311489{7}[source]
> Interesting, there are plenty of localities in the US that hire 5-10yoe developers at south of $100k.

I don't doubt there may be people who would be fine with that, but I guess no one who values their own skills would go for it if there are plenty of East/West Coast companies hiring remotely.

> Is there a good resource for data on wages in Poland? I mean, I am going to look, but I thought I'd ask.

I think you can start from looking at the local job offers, e.g. https://justjoin.it. Just remember there are a couple of nuances:

- most developers in Poland don't want to be FTEs, because the tax burden on that type of employment is at least 2 times higher than on B2B contracts; effectively, we ended up having a market where everyone is hired B2B, but with all the usual FT benefits (paid vacations and sick days, equipment, private insurance, gym memberships, free food and whatnot) - it's sort of a gray area, but the related law is not really enforced; thus as a foreign company you compete with the local B2B rates + benefits

- people are aware that US is a different market generating more revenue

- the work-life balance may be quite different, so they expect to be paid accordingly

- Warsaw is generally more expensive than other cities in Poland, so you don't need to limit yourself to one city in your search, the same way as you wouldn't hire remote developers from the Bay Area only

- there's a reason these offers are hanging in there :)

Edit: formatting.

replies(1): >>45312651 #
124. disgruntledphd2 ◴[] No.45311515{7}[source]
Yes, as platform teams are generally colocated somewhere else.
125. harimau777 ◴[] No.45312450{5}[source]
IMHO The ability to choose to live in a high income region (or more specifically a cosmopolitan city) is one of the core characteristics of what it means to be middle class.

Partially, that's because increased self determination is part of being middle class. Partionally, that's because the ability to participate in culture (art, music, education, multiculturalism, etc.) is part of being middle class; and those opportunities are highly concentrated in the cities.

126. sgc ◴[] No.45312474{5}[source]
Yes of course. I was trying to remain tangential to the current administration and stay on the level of the underlying problem they seem to intuit related to this one, very specific policy decision (hard to tell with them, that's for sure). Most everything they do deserves condemnation, so there would be little to talk about otherwise.
127. jiscariot ◴[] No.45312518{7}[source]
I wonder what effect the US's heavy reliance on HB1 visas (and off-shoring more broadly) has had on the size of the cohorts graduating with CS degrees.

All I have is anecdotal conversations of people avoiding tech under the assumption that writing code would be off-shored.

128. alephnerd ◴[] No.45312585{4}[source]
> you could get top developers from Warsaw for $50-60k in 2025

We'd be paying that for Early career base (think L3). Mid-career you'd see people breaking the $80-110k base range.

I don't like giving "TC" simply because RSUs are very dependent on a number of outside variables.

And my example was for why a JPMC opens an offshore office abroad, or why a company hires an EPAM type.

For product companies who actually care about work quality, you won't too see much difference between salary abroad and a US salary from 10 years ago. I'd recommend using a fork of the old GitLab comp calculator - it's fairly accurate.

replies(1): >>45313451 #
129. alephnerd ◴[] No.45312651{8}[source]
> Warsaw is generally more expensive than other cities in Poland, so you don't need to limit yourself to one city in your search

Yep! Krakow, Lodz, and the other various cities have become cost effective and built hiring pipelines as well.

You see this all over the CEE and India as well, such as Czechia (Brno, Ostrava), Romania (Cluj thanks to the Transylvanian government, Timisoara) and India (BLR/Pune/Hyd/Gurgaon to Tier 2/3 cities)

130. A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 ◴[] No.45313099{7}[source]
<< we might have unrealistic expectations.

I deleted longer response from yesterday. Long story short, I disagree. If anything, it is unrealistic for anyone to expect that current economic ecosystem is sustainable.

I don't expect a lot, but I do expect my standard to improve over that of my parents', not decrease.

131. LunaSea ◴[] No.45313347{6}[source]
$130k is something I very rarely see on job postings anywhere in Europe besides maybe London.
132. dzonga ◴[] No.45313451{5}[source]
I don't know why people like arguing with facts.

you're pointing out facts - yet people deny. most software jobs listings are either in eastern europe or india these days. that's the "A.I" eating software jobs.

yeah some companies might list U.S jobs - but they're only seriously hiring for Staff roles. the rest offshored.

133. geodel ◴[] No.45313686{5}[source]
Yeah, right India has 10-100 times more H1B level talent that they send to US.

And it is the 10 times more competitive economy compared to non H1B importing nations.