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1245 points mriguy | 67 comments | | HN request time: 0.266s | source | bottom
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roughly ◴[] No.45306289[source]
I think there’s plenty of interesting debates to be had about immigration policy and its effects on the labor market, but one thing worth noting here is that the primary problem that damn near every other country on earth has isn’t immigration, it’s brain drain.

A core strategic strength of the US over the last century has been that everyone with any talent wants to come here to work, and by and large we’ve let them do so. You can argue how well that’s worked out for us - having worked with a great many extremely talented H1bs in an industry largely built by immigrants, I’d consider it pretty positive - but it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from.

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jpadkins ◴[] No.45306392[source]
The top end of H1B has been great for America. In the last few decades, there has been growth of abuse of the program to get mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America. People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. We need to limit the volume, especially the immigrants that are directly competing with a hollowed out middle class in the US. Let me know if you want further reading on this topic.
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roughly ◴[] No.45306892[source]
The hollowing out of the middle class in the US isn't because of immigrants, it's because of a sustained campaign by capital to reduce the power of labor over the last 50-odd years and to concentrate wealth as best they can. Immigrant labor contributes to that because we've got inadequate labor protections and because we bought into the idea that lower consumer prices was a fine reason to ignore both labor and antitrust.
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1. giantg2 ◴[] No.45307113[source]
"The hollowing out of the middle class in the US isn't because of immigrants, it's because of a sustained campaign by capital to reduce the power of labor over the last 50-odd years and to concentrate wealth as best they can."

Creating low cost alternatives and taking advance of lax laws is part of that. If you can import 100k skilled workers per year under a scheme that gives you more power over them. Then you also offshore 300k jobs per year to countries with weaker protections.

It's always baffled me how the same candidates that claim to be pro labor and pro environment are also pro globalization. The way it plays out is that the jobs are just offshore to jurisdictions that lack the same labor and environmental protections.

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2. sahila ◴[] No.45308219[source]
> It's always baffled me how the same candidates that claim to be pro labor and pro environment are also pro globalization. The way it plays out is that the jobs are just offshore to jurisdictions that lack the same labor and environmental protections.

Why's that? The jobs and lives of individuals in those countries are better than the alternatives present otherwise to them. Globalization may hurt certain America jobs but certainly countries like India is grateful for all of the engineering roles.

High consumerism is harmful to the environment but I don't think the link between offshoring jobs is direct to environmental harms and certainly it's helpful to giving more job opportunites.

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3. sokoloff ◴[] No.45308276[source]
I'm very much free trade and pro-globalization, but it seems perfectly reasonable to me that a candidate for political office in country X should be most concerned about the overall welfare of the citizens of country X, then next for the non-citizen residents of country X, then non-citizen/non-residents last. We can argue how steep the dropoff should be, but I think most people would believe that the ordering is that one, with some possible ties.
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4. TheOtherHobbes ◴[] No.45308366{3}[source]
Good news! Native USian developers will no longer be made unemployed by cheap immigrants.

Instead they'll be made unemployed by AI and a crashing tech economy.

But that isn't the point of this. It's leverage - much like the tariffs.

Big companies making significant donations to the Donald Trump Presidential Aggrandisement Fund will receive carve-outs and exclusions.

It's a grift, like everything else done by this benighted administration.

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5. seanmcdirmid ◴[] No.45308393{4}[source]
I hope you are right. If this is just grift...well...I guess the bar is still low but at least it isn't at the bottom.
6. scrubs ◴[] No.45308538[source]
I like your focus on middle class. That is if we're viewing h1b as an input we ought to eval based on what's good for the middle class.

I don't quite agree that much with causes: high housing, Healthcare & med bankruptcy, and high education costs (correlating with high housing) are bigger factors. However non tech/lawyer/doctors have been adversely effected by the fact they've seen no real income gains in 25 years overall.

Now, the top 5% and corps need to be made to pay more taxes... thats another subject.

A couple elderly people i know are quite concerned Trump will take their snap benefits, or decrease medicaid/care etc while the tax reductions were given on the bb bill. Thats not acceptable.

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7. franktankbank ◴[] No.45308606[source]
Its arbitrage. You think the low rung indians are happy suresh is making top dollar programming a web app?
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8. lumost ◴[] No.45308748[source]
> However non tech/lawyer/doctors have been adversely effected by the fact they've seen no real income gains in 25 years overall.

We may be reaching the breaking point where Americans view any solution to this problem as worth trying. We’re near 2 generations of flat real income for the vast majority of Americans. When your grandparents are the last generation to remember rising living standards, it’s hard to buy that the system is working for you at all.

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9. roenxi ◴[] No.45309107[source]
Insofar as a "pro-labour" position exists in practice it has to be anti-globalist. If pro-labour is going to mean something it has to mean trying to get labour a better deal than a free market would offer, otherwise it isn't really taking a position on labour at all. A key part of globalism is it makes it impossible for labour in any given country to avoid being paid the market price for their labour.

Environmentalism is similar. Globalism fixes the amount of pollution globally to the market optimum where presumably an environmentalist wants to control pollution using some other system than markets.

You seem to be arguing that globalism makes the world better off. I agree, but that is because pro-labour and pro-environmentalist ideologies are pretty explicit that they aren't trying to maximise the general welfare. A situation where one soul works very hard and happily for little pay making things for everyone else could be a good outcome for everyone (see also: economic comparative advantage). The pro-labour position would resist that outcome on the basis that the labourer is not making very much money. And the environmentalist would probably be unhappy with the amount of pollution that the hard work generates. The globalist would call it a win.

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10. SpicyLemonZest ◴[] No.45309427{3}[source]
> We’re near 2 generations of flat real income for the vast majority of Americans.

No, we aren't! We have statistics on this (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N). Median real income is up substantially since 40-50 years ago, depending on what you count as a generation. And we have stories and records of what life was like in the 1970s, when 80% of households had to hand wash dishes and 50% had to line-dry clothes. The reason people believe living standards haven't risen since their grandparents' day is that they get false nostalgia bait depictions of how a typical person lived in their grandparents' day.

(What is true, and what I'm sure contributes to the power of the nostalgia bait, is that real income stagnated with the dot-com bubble and didn't hit a sustained rise again until the mid-late 2010s.)

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11. lumost ◴[] No.45309926{4}[source]
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

While you are correct that real wages are up around 25%, productivity has nearly doubled. While various consumer goods, and technology have seen large improvements - ignoring the measurable and qualitative ways that affording basic aspects of life have become more difficult is not wise.

12. henrikschroder ◴[] No.45309960{4}[source]
> and 50% had to line-dry clothes.

Sorry for hijacking, but this is quite possibly one of the funniest American poverty markers around.

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13. itake ◴[] No.45310395{4}[source]
its a common tactic for companies to force high paying employees to relocate to other offices, or leave...

This could be a tactic to force lower end to go home and accept a lower salary at the same company for their same role.

up or out. or in this cause, over or out...

14. nick49488171 ◴[] No.45310411{5}[source]
Couldn't afford to throw enormous amounts of heat out the window during winter time! And all the time.
15. hallway_monitor ◴[] No.45310590{5}[source]
Washing dishes and hanging clothes out aren’t actually torture.
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16. scrubs ◴[] No.45310625{4}[source]
Thank you for chart. I will reassess real income gains. I'd be lovely to have a chart on housing/rent, healthcare, and higher education to see if people had both higher income and expenses.

Global trade as made consumer prices competitive in many things, but those are a big three.

Nostalgia was not at root of my original comment.

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17. palmfacehn ◴[] No.45310647{3}[source]
Globalism as an ideology is distinct from globalization of trade. Globalists would argue for expansive supranational regulatory controls. Migration and alleged environmental concerns are typical rationalizations for their expanding powers. The distinction is better understood as between a set of liberal, laissez-faire trade policies and an emerging illiberal supranational regulatory state.

Specifically when you say:

>Globalism fixes the amount of pollution globally to the market optimum where presumably an environmentalist wants to control pollution using some other system than markets.

We can observe that the Globalist organizations regard not just pollution, but carbon consumption to be something which markets cannot be trusted to manage. Instead they propose top-down regulatory management on a supranational level.

https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/imo-...

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18. garciasn ◴[] No.45310766{6}[source]
Very true statement; but, it’s certainly neither convenient nor the least bit enjoyable, either.
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19. ksenzee ◴[] No.45310866{5}[source]
We don’t have time to hang our clothes out on the line and bring them in again and iron them. We’re too busy working. sobs
20. jjav ◴[] No.45310926{5}[source]
Seriously!

Clothes dryers are a sign of shrinking real estate, not a sign of luxury.

When one lives in a tiny apartment with no balcony, you better have a dryer. When living with plenty of land, it's not a problem to hang clothes to dry in the sun.

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21. Scoundreller ◴[] No.45310971{6}[source]
> Clothes dryers are a sign of shrinking real estate, not a sign of luxury.

My euro family disagrees, even in places that don’t have a balcony. Get the rack out and dry indoors and it’s pretty dry overnight (in the not so humid places).

I have a dryer but avoid it for most clothes because I think it wears them out.

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22. incone123 ◴[] No.45311151{6}[source]
Plenty of old photos of people running drying lines between them and the opposite tenement building. Not saying people should do that today, just that it's what people did when they had neither space nor means to buy a dryer (or before dryers were invented)
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23. tossandthrow ◴[] No.45311203{4}[source]
It is reasonable to be skeptical about their definition of inflation, and henceforth what "real" means.

While this chart shows "real" income increases we apparently also see "real" increases on housing, rents, education, etc.

If your inflation metric is only on rolled oats, then it is not really worth much, is it?

24. hyperman1 ◴[] No.45311284{7}[source]
I've been handwashing my dishes for a long time and now have a dishwasher. One of the main benefits is having a place to store the dirty dishes until there are enough to make it worth washing. I used to do 3 washes a day, with 2 tiny ones.
25. autoexec ◴[] No.45311290{7}[source]
Many Americans would love to do this today, but every apartment I've rented in the last 15 years has strict rules against drying clothes outside along with other restrictions on what you're allowed to place or store on patios and balconies there. Most of the rules seem to be in place purely so that the complex/tower doesn't look "poor" or "trashy"
26. madaxe_again ◴[] No.45311291{7}[source]
I quite like hanging out the clothes to dry - bit of sunshine and birdsong, something to do with my hands while my brain plots and schemes.
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27. mafuy ◴[] No.45311354{4}[source]
'Hand washing dishes' was replaced with 'get a low paying job to be a second household earner'. Considering this, has the standard of living really increased?
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28. quasarsunnix ◴[] No.45311482[source]
Wholeheartedly agreed. I used to work very closely with economists in asset management. What looks like efficiency on a spreadsheet can look very different on the ground.
29. roenxi ◴[] No.45311518{4}[source]
Hmm, yes. I am forced to agree. Sorry, please interpret my comment as talking about globalisation (the effect), not globalism (the ideology).
30. simonh ◴[] No.45311520{3}[source]
Overall welfare is about more than just income though. It’s about national security, the cost of living, and the benefits of things like innovation, technology, culture.

Let’s look at US imports from China. Last year that was $462bn worth of goods. Suppose the development of China never happened and all those goods were manufactured in the USA instead. That’s impossible, the US doesn’t have tens of millions of industrial workers lying around spare to do those mostly low end, low value jobs and if it did they would cost more and the goods would all be much more expensive. So the cost of living would go up, the economy would less efficient because many workers would be doing lower value add jobs than they are now. The country would be much worse off overall. It would basically amount to enormous government subsidies and protections for vast swathes of lower value assembly work than what many people are doing now.

I support global trade because I think it’s best for the west. Not hyper-liberal ultra free market trade. Negotiated, rules based, moderately regulated trade and investment that is balanced to meet domestic and international needs.

31. vaxman ◴[] No.45311523{4}[source]
Nooo. Wages only jumped in the Tech biz just before the dot-com crash and again before the AI crash that hasn't happened yet (unless you count laying off workers to pay for capX on NVIDIA hahaha). Bottom line: McDonalds is paying $20/hr now in California to flip burgers --YUUUGE, but a whole lot of people lost their jobs when major automobile manufacturers laid them off because they "didn't want to compete with McDonalds for workers"...where is that in your "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" (I'mma change that to "and LLMs" rofl).

Hey it's iPhone Day, "Stay Hungry Stay Foolish"* ---

*-nevermind the $10000 workstation named after a gf or more recently $2000 orange phones (I bought a DEEP Blue because Apple is always threatening to "Care-Deeply" me), $1000 watches and $300 earpieces for errbody. So Hungry. Also, we'll make sure you never work anywhere in Tech again if you even so much as interview for a new job outside of our company and Non-Competes Are No Longer Blocked! But What the Helly..Turtleneck also didn't invent the hungry mantra which is embraced by many other similar brilliant people, from Einstein to Elon'n-on and of course, my dad's gang one of whom brought Turtleneck back to Apple.) Get it? Got it? Good.

32. ◴[] No.45311531{8}[source]
33. Yeul ◴[] No.45311620[source]
Keeping the middle class distracted with racism is what the elite does very well.
34. Yeul ◴[] No.45311629{5}[source]
I think many women were happy that they could get an education and job to make their life more interesting besides being the house slave of their husband.
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35. Yeul ◴[] No.45311635{6}[source]
Where is this sun in November?
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36. lansol ◴[] No.45311662{4}[source]
Real people don't care about "real income". They care about if they can get and retain a decent home, job and life. How much debt they are in, that their education is enough, how their social life is, if they can have kids and how they think about their future.

"Real income" is measured against the consumer price index (CPI). CPI is used to gauge inflation, "are people paying more for groceries this year than last?", not living standard. Most of the important questions like "how many years of education do you need for a good job?" or "how many average salaries do you need for a good home?" are all massively worse. So are many metrics of despair.

What real income really shows is that more money now gives you less. That what buys you a loaf of bread doesn't buy you a good life anymore. Because median income might be keeping up with inflation, but not with anything else.

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37. dotancohen ◴[] No.45311689{5}[source]
Global trade has made shippable commodities cheaper, so purely local expenses such as housing, healthcare, and education are relatively more expensive. Especially as inflation measurements include items from both categories.

This is why many places in the world no longer produce enough food to feed their populations - refrigeration and cheap oil enable food to no longer be a local commodity. Education is sometimes headed in the same direction. But housing cannot be sourced anywhere but locally.

38. jerojero ◴[] No.45311701{6}[source]
I don't like using a dryer even when I had one. Its way too taxing on the fabrics.

Its nice to have as a last resort or during winter tho.

39. dotancohen ◴[] No.45311702{6}[source]
Is a cultural perception that raising children and a family is being a slave. I personally find it a disgusting perception. I love my family.
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40. dotancohen ◴[] No.45311714{7}[source]
Australia
41. johnisgood ◴[] No.45311784{6}[source]
And what about women who love their family and kids and would like to support the family by staying at home? Come on dude, calling it slavery is fucked up.
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42. GOD_Over_Djinn ◴[] No.45311895{6}[source]
Comparing raising your children, cooking food for your family, and maintaining the home to slavery is… quite the position..
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43. swiftcoder ◴[] No.45311955{7}[source]
You have indoor heating, right? Clothes dry just fine on a rack indoors (albeit you may need some way to remove the resulting humidity if your heating system isn't doing that job already)
44. nly ◴[] No.45312055{7}[source]
A lot of rent agreements in then UK explicitly forbid tenants from drying clothes indoors on a rack because it is claimed that it raises humidity and the risk of mould (being an already quite damp, cold country)
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45. LightBug1 ◴[] No.45312060{6}[source]
We bought a dishwasher about 5 years ago. Still haven't used it. True story.
46. davkan ◴[] No.45312066{7}[source]
It’s certainly hyperbolic but lack of autonomy and complete financial dependence were pretty par for the course for women back in the day.

My grandma slowly squirreled away money in a shoe box over decades as she had no personal bank account and lived on what my grandpa provided while she took care of seven kids. She saw it as her lifeline. Meanwhile he got drunk every night at the yacht club.

When the last of the kids were nearing college she spent that money on classes for clerical work and got a job.

I could not possibly imagine being in her shoes and I can imagine why a woman would be loathe to enter into such dependence on another person, regardless of how fulfilling child rearing and house keeping may be.

And the further you go back from there the worse it looks for women.

47. harimau777 ◴[] No.45312312[source]
I could see that being the case in a scenario where all countries had strong labor protections. However, in practice globalism tends to result in jobs being exported from countries with strong protections to countries with weak protections. In that sense it is anti-labor.

In the case of bringing in workers; those workers are less likely to join unions or demand good working conditions since they are effectively indentured servants. That also is bad for labor.

48. sterlind ◴[] No.45312362{7}[source]
or men, for that matter. no reason it has to be the woman to stay home and support the family.
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49. lumb63 ◴[] No.45312383{4}[source]
I can’t comment on the nostalgia aspect, because I wasn’t alive back then, but I can say that there are several aspects of the statistic you used that make it not reflective of the experience people have.

One issue is median real income does not tell you anything about the distribution of income. It can be used to show that the top 50% of people have had “real income growth”, but can hide a lot at both extremes; the poor and rich have had vastly different experiences [1]. The metric on that page looks at “share of national income”, so it has issues as well (not anchored to any objective measures), but it illustrates my point just as well.

The bigger issue I find is the way that “real income” is measured. There are a slew of issues, IMO (hedonic adjustment, for instance), but the biggest is the way that asset prices are treated in CPI - that is to say, they are not! Shelter prices reflect “owner equivalent rent”, not the price to actually buy a home, which has ballooned massively in the last few decades, especially the past five years, relative to income [2]. The same applies to other assets such as stocks; they are nowhere in the CPI metric, but have a direct impact on our lives; higher-priced stocks impeded the purchasing ability of people with respect to stocks, costing them returns over time (couple this with the larger cost of other assets over time and it is clear retirement age will have to go up). So, yes, maybe real income has increased, but substitutions are being made and tricks are being played; more people are renting longer because of home prices. Future returns on investments will be lower because of a giant asset bubble.

Also, future liabilities are nowhere to be seen in the real income metrics. The national debt that the US has saddled its current and future citizens with is shameful and will inevitably cause financial drag in the future (could be higher tax rates, but my personal bet is persistently higher inflation over time; you can already see the Fed giving up on its 2% target).

[1]: https://wid.world/country/usa/

[2]: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-inco...

50. ninalanyon ◴[] No.45312435{8}[source]
That's because UK rental homes for the hoi polloi are notoriously badly insulated, ventilated, and heated. The landlords are blaming the tenants for the landlords' failings.
51. johnisgood ◴[] No.45312469{8}[source]
Of course. I agree.
52. sokoloff ◴[] No.45312536{3}[source]
They may not care about Suresh specifically, but they're probably happier than if no one in their country had a well-paying tech job. Suresh and his tech worker colleagues don't sit on Scrooge McDuck piles of gold coins; instead they spend the money in their country and community.

I'm pretty sure my local pizza shop, waitstaff, and other small businesses are happy to have my money spent on their products and services. They don't care that I have a tech job, but they do care that I spend money with them, and spending money with them is only one degree of separation from having a job.

53. ozim ◴[] No.45312701{7}[source]
I think more people will find disgusting walking over all the abuse women had to endure you did here.

earlier wife beating was „normal thing” leaving abusive partners was not possible or much harder than nowadays.

Then in a lot of places in the world it still is like that.

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54. hdgvhicv ◴[] No.45312807{5}[source]
Adjusting for CPI the median wage in America is up about 10% in the last 20 years.
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55. hdgvhicv ◴[] No.45312824{6}[source]
And many couples are tired of both having to go to work and outsource the childcare to third parties to be able to afford the mortgage which is high because everyone has two incomes.
56. somenameforme ◴[] No.45312841{4}[source]
That data series is misleading because of what you're seeing. Ostensibly you'd think that means wages are going up, right? It doesn't. Here [1] is the data set for that - weekly real earnings. They're barely moving - up about 13% over 50 years. And given now a days we have a lot of new and practically mandatory costs to deal with, such as internet and computing/telephony devices, real wages are probably down in practical terms.

So what gives with your data set? The data set I give covers wages for full time workers. The data set you gave covers all individuals 15+ with any "income", which includes governments benefits. So what you're likely seeing there is going to be, in part, driven by things like an aging population - with a large number of retirees retiring with social security, medicaid, pensions, etc fattening out the middle part of society where income, after all is accounted for, of around $40k sounds just about right. It's mostly unrelated to the change in wages.

---

Also, unrelated but I found your examples of 'better life' weird. I still hand wish dishes and line-dry clothes. I know Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates also hand wash their dishes. The "nostalgia" people have is for things like somebody graduating debt free, with a decent car, and ready to put a down payment on the first home - on the back of a part time job that put them through school. That really did happen, but now a days it sounds like a fantasy. I think society would happily trade dish washers for that!

[1] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

57. lotsofpulp ◴[] No.45312989{6}[source]
Yet people feel like their purchasing power is going down.

Their expectations might be to live in the top few decile neighborhoods of a metro, where land prices have gone up a few hundred thousand in the previous decade.

It doesn’t matter if the stats say income went up 10% if they or their kids won’t be able to land that house they wanted, or can’t make that appointment with the doctor and instead have to see an NP, or worry about having to move to a more expensive metro to reduce income volatility.

58. nothercastle ◴[] No.45313059{6}[source]
You can’t use cpi directly like that. The model uses hedonic adjustment to say that modern goods are better than old stuff so you are earning more.

For example your $1000 oled tv is better than your $1000 crt tv therefore you your purchasing power has gone up. Or your base truck now comes with nav therefore your truck can be 5k more and still be net neutral. The problem with this system is that in order to stay in the same price catagory on the index you continually need to move down the product tiers. So today’s lowest tier is a decade ago mid tier is 2 decades ago high end. Moving down like that makes you feel poorer because wealth is relative.

59. dotancohen ◴[] No.45313186{8}[source]
I don't know in what culture you were raised. My culture has no history of systematic wife beating.
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60. tiahura ◴[] No.45313378{6}[source]
Do you have any idea how many women hate having to work and would you rather be raising a family?
61. smugma ◴[] No.45313447{4}[source]
And >50% of families could go to Disneyland* and own homes.

* https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/opinion/disney-world-econ...

62. geye1234 ◴[] No.45313551[source]
> It's always baffled me how the same candidates that claim to be pro labor and pro environment are also pro globalization. The way it plays out is that the jobs are just offshore to jurisdictions that lack the same labor and environmental protections.

Propaganda is very effective, and Americans are the most skillful propagandists in the world. Immigration is as pro-capital and anti-labor as you can get, yet somehow the left has been convinced to support it.

replies(1): >>45313688 #
63. geye1234 ◴[] No.45313555{6}[source]
In the 1970s, a single-income family on a factory worker's wage could buy a 3-bedroom house with a 3x mortgage.
64. catlikesshrimp ◴[] No.45313688[source]
Are "Americans the most skillful propagandists"? Not Russians, not communist, not new age populist dictatorships?

That doesn't mean the teflon president isn't just now blatantly silencing the voices of the opposition (Kimmel and then a general warning) so he definitely wants a place in the competition.

65. cantor_S_drug ◴[] No.45313712{4}[source]
In the recent podcast Balaji said, both Red and Blue America will start hating Tech for distinct reasons. Red America will hate for H1Bs. Blue will hate for AI displacing high paying white collar jobs.
66. matthewdgreen ◴[] No.45313752{9}[source]
Are you positive about this?
67. EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK ◴[] No.45313862{4}[source]
Many households in European countries such as Germany or Finland line-dry clothes, and I would argue living standards are higher in those countries compared to the US.