Trump to impose $100k fee for H-1B worker visas, White House says

If H-1B workers are too expensive to hire, tech employers have two options:

1. Hire more American workers (pay more, maybe they don't exist so don't hire)

2. Move their offices overseas (already happening, we should see an acceleration)

Ok, I guess AI could also start replacing more roles, but we won't see that productivity for a year or two.

If companies choose 2 over 1, it will mean fewer jobs overall in the USA (including support and service jobs).

What about just hiring remote contractors?

Yep - I expect to see a lot more job postings for overseas. Not the time to encourage offshoring.

This is happening in tandem with work to tax offshoring ("No Tax Breaks for Outsourcing Act")

Companies could already hire offshore for 50% of what they pay in America, so I don't expect a dramatic change there.

https://thefactcoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/No-T...

Logistics and vetting mostly. The Indian body shops have a business model that already does this, actually: you hire the body shop, they send over one or two more senior engineers who then act as liaisons that farm out work back in India where most of the body shop is still located. My guess is that you'll just see more of that going on, although the R&D tax rules are getting weird with respect to amortization and out sourced labor.

My experience with those kinds of places is that they send their "dream team" for the first couple of months but then bait and switch the client with less experienced staff who subsequently f*ck everything up.