Maybe AGI is impossible not for any technical reasons, but because AI is a self-limiting technology? As AI improves, it destroys the educational system that creates the researchers that develop it.
They are working well now because they live off the pile of human-created online content. Give it a few years. When all the AI has to feed on is the output of other AI bots, they will likely hit a reality wall and halucinate themselves into insanity. Forget new physics. It will probably be hard to get an AI to admit the earth isnt flat.
Web 2.0 is already doing a great job at "human model collapse". No generative content needed, people are consuming poor quality output of other humans and leading to a decline in discourse. Tik-Tokification.