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196 points triceratops | 7 comments | | HN request time: 0.255s | source | bottom
1. tuatoru ◴[] No.45108731[source]
I haven't done the math but I would expect that more than all of China's decline is due to two effects:

population aging -- older people use less fossil fuel.

reduced household formation, in part driven by increased youth unemployment. It's impossible to get figures for this.

replies(3): >>45108768 #>>45109212 #>>45110246 #
2. w4yai ◴[] No.45108768[source]
Which stage of denial is this ?
replies(1): >>45108928 #
3. tuatoru ◴[] No.45108928[source]
Knowledge of demography.
replies(2): >>45108984 #>>45109149 #
4. lucb1e ◴[] No.45108984{3}[source]
looking up your claim, https://www.mpg.de/4635546/co2-age-structure doesn't quite seem that much of a decline as compared to the giant increase from adulthood until ~60yo (presumably, as you accumulate wealth and require more care). You have to be over 70yo before it goes from ~15 to ~13 tons per capita per year. That's a small minority of people (like 9% if I'm eyeballing it right) who are 70+ in China in 2024 according to https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/ so the remaining 91% will be either stable or increasing emissions

edit: corrected the figure from 3% to 9% after noticing that I looked only at the left number and not the right one on that second graph. Forgot about all the women in the country, whoops

5. tokioyoyo ◴[] No.45109149{3}[source]
1/3 of Chinese population still lives in the rural areas. They’re still in the process of urbanization and building up new cities. That process results in emissions.
6. davis ◴[] No.45109212[source]
The decline in emissions is due to the massive build out of renewables of solar and wind. The amount they are building is insane. Your theory is ignorant and you are spreading misinformation and nonsense.
7. henry2023 ◴[] No.45110246[source]
I agree with you. You clearly haven’t done the math.