Trade in War

I also find the last point which is teased in the article interesting: "States very infrequently get forecasts about the length of war right".

I can see why that happens, but are there any good counterexamples? Are there any conflicts that actually were as short as the initiating party expected?

The Six Day War took about as long as either side expected.

The 1991 Gulf War ended faster than the attacking coalition forces expected. Only a few Iraqi military units stood and fought; most surrendered or retreated.