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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

(www.wsj.com)
462 points JumpCrisscross | 2 comments | 30 Aug 25 20:56 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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more_corn ◴[30 Aug 25 21:14 UTC] No.45078070[source]▶
Because the cost of goods continues to fluctuate wildly due to ongoing tariff wrangling that nobody asked for or needed.

Also farmers can’t sell anything because retaliation has destroyed international demand (I’d say decimated but it’s way worse than reduction by a tenth)

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JumpCrisscross ◴[30 Aug 25 21:39 UTC] No.45078219[source]▶
> farmers can’t sell anything because retaliation has destroyed international demand

Not true. At least not yet.

Q2 agricultural exports were roughly flat to Q1 [1].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B181RC1Q027SBEA

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0cf8612b2e1e ◴[30 Aug 25 21:52 UTC] No.45078311[source]▶
Soybean farmers are predicting a world of hurt as China continues to acquire from South America instead.

  “Overall, export sales of this fall’s (U.S.) soybean crop are down 81% from the five-year average,” Brasher reported.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/08/20/soybean-farme...
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declan_roberts ◴[30 Aug 25 22:12 UTC] No.45078447[source]▶
South America doesn't produce enough soy beans for them to replace America even if China bought every single ounce of soy.

When it comes to soy, America has enormous leverage and China already accepted they're negotiating from a position of weakness.

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imglorp ◴[30 Aug 25 22:47 UTC] No.45078654{3}[source]▶
China may elect not to replace the whole shortfall. They may value the message it sends more.
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1. 0cf8612b2e1e ◴[31 Aug 25 01:41 UTC] No.45079582{4}[source]▶
80% of soy is destined for animal feed. While there is undoubtedly some reason why chicken and pigs have historically been fed soy meal ($/kg, nutritional profile, speed of animal growth, etc) -animal feed seems very fungible. If there is a soybean deficit, seems plausible to swap to some other abundant crop.
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2. jandrewrogers ◴[31 Aug 25 03:01 UTC] No.45079982[source]▶
Those crops would need to have been planted at scale months ago, with the full supply chain build-out leading up to that beforehand. The history of agricultural supply chains demonstrates that it is not nearly as agile as laypeople assume due to a long chain of sequential dependencies.

You either have to find a way to consume what is already in the pipeline or go without. Governments are very sensitive to the food security implications because there isn’t much slack politically to “go without”.