Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

> farmers can’t sell anything because retaliation has destroyed international demand

Not true. At least not yet.

Q2 agricultural exports were roughly flat to Q1 [1].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B181RC1Q027SBEA

Soybean farmers are predicting a world of hurt as China continues to acquire from South America instead.

  “Overall, export sales of this fall’s (U.S.) soybean crop are down 81% from the five-year average,” Brasher reported.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/08/20/soybean-farme...

Is that normal? It seems to me like we’d expect Q2 agricultural exports to usually be much higher than Q1.

South America doesn't produce enough soy beans for them to replace America even if China bought every single ounce of soy.

When it comes to soy, America has enormous leverage and China already accepted they're negotiating from a position of weakness.

The worst scenario for China is inflation. They are fighting deflation so that would actually help them solve the issue.

Leverage? Soybeans are the number one US food export (historically mostly to China). To date, China has purchased zero bushels this year. This is with US soy being cheaper than the competition. Maybe China cannot replace 100% of their demand today, but they are showing a united front that their import numbers will be kept as low as possible.

  …Basse says soybean importers aren’t just snubbing U.S. soybeans. They are specifically being told by the Chinese government to not buy U.S. beans.

  “So, if you’re a Chinese importer or a Chinese crusher, you’ve been told by the government not to buy U.S. soybeans until they tell you to. This is how China works. Today the Chinese have a stronghold on buying United States soybeans, even though our prices are nearly $1 a bushel cheaper than what they’re buying in Brazil. This is the pressure that I believe the Chinese government is trying to apply on the Trump administration during a trade negotiation,”…

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soybeans/8-soybeans-thats-r...

Seasonally adjusted and annualised.

China may elect not to replace the whole shortfall. They may value the message it sends more.

80% of soy is destined for animal feed. While there is undoubtedly some reason why chicken and pigs have historically been fed soy meal ($/kg, nutritional profile, speed of animal growth, etc) -animal feed seems very fungible. If there is a soybean deficit, seems plausible to swap to some other abundant crop.

Those crops would need to have been planted at scale months ago, with the full supply chain build-out leading up to that beforehand. The history of agricultural supply chains demonstrates that it is not nearly as agile as laypeople assume due to a long chain of sequential dependencies.

You either have to find a way to consume what is already in the pipeline or go without. Governments are very sensitive to the food security implications because there isn’t much slack politically to “go without”.

If China has a monopsony on soy beans, then they nogociate from a position if power, because the US either sells on their terms or see the beans rot.