Enrollment at trade schools is expected to grow

For junior devs wondering if they picked the right path, remember that the world still needs software, ai still breaks down at even a small bit of complexity, and the first ones to abandon this career will be those who only did it for money anyways and they’ll do the same once the trades have a rough year (as they always do).

In the meantime keep learning and practicing cs fundamentals, ignore hype and build something interesting.

I think the concern isn't so much about the current state of AI replacing software engineers, but more "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?"

I don't really agree with the reasoning [1], and I don't think we can expect this same rate of progress indefinitely, but I do understand the concern.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

| "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?"

All relevant and recent evidence points to logarithmic improvement, not the exponential we were told (promised) in the beginning.

We're likely waiting at this point for another breakthrough on the level of the attention paper. That could be next year, it could be 5-10 years from now, it could be 50 years from now. There's no point in prediction.

> logarithmic improvement

Relative to time. Not relative to capital investment. There it's nearly perfectly linear.