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64 points m-hodges | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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prisenco ◴[] No.45078963[source]
For junior devs wondering if they picked the right path, remember that the world still needs software, ai still breaks down at even a small bit of complexity, and the first ones to abandon this career will be those who only did it for money anyways and they’ll do the same once the trades have a rough year (as they always do).

In the meantime keep learning and practicing cs fundamentals, ignore hype and build something interesting.

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tombert ◴[] No.45079019[source]
I think the concern isn't so much about the current state of AI replacing software engineers, but more "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?"

I don't really agree with the reasoning [1], and I don't think we can expect this same rate of progress indefinitely, but I do understand the concern.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

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echelon ◴[] No.45079046[source]
If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels.

If software falls, everything falls.

But as we've seen, these models can't do the job themselves. They're best thought of as an exoskeleton that requires a pilot. They make mistakes, and those mistakes multiply into a mess if a human isn't around. They don't get the big picture, and it's not clear they ever will with the current models and techniques.

The only field that has truly been disrupted is graphics design and art. The image and video models are sublime and truly deliver 10,000x speed, cost, and talent reductions.

This is probably for three reasons:

1. There's so much straightforward training data

2. The laws of optics and structure seem correspondingly easier than the rules governing intelligence. Simple animals evolved vision hundreds of millions of years ago, and we have all the math and algorithmic implementations already. Not so, for intelligence.

3. Mistakes don't multiply. You can brush up the canvas easily and deliver the job as a smaller work than, say, a 100k LOC program with failure modes.

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bc569a80a344f9c ◴[] No.45079103[source]
> If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls.

I don’t think that follows at all. Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. You can replace programmers without robotics. You can’t replace trades without them.

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1. ares623 ◴[] No.45079170[source]
There will be millions of meat based robots lining up to flood the market when every knowledge based worker is displaced.
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2. esseph ◴[] No.45079254[source]
Driving down the value of their labor, but still not competitive enough globally because it's just so much cheaper in other countries for that labor.
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3. grumple ◴[] No.45083471[source]
A laborer in Asia can't install plumbing in America, install electrical systems in America, etc...

We also should end the exploitative nature of globalization. Outsourced work should be held to the same standards as laborers in modern countries (preferably EU, rather than American, standards).