Do the simplest thing that could possibly work

Anyone proclaiming simplicity just hasnt worked at scale. Even rewrites that have a decade old code base to be inspired from, often fail due to the sheer amount of things to consider.

A classic, Chesterton's Fence:

"There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”"

We can even just look at the title here: Do the simplest thing POSSIBLE.

You can't escape complexity when a problem is complex. You could certainly still complicate it even more than necessary, though. Nowhere in this article is it saying you can avoid complexity altogether, but that many of us tend to over-complicate problems for no good reason.

I think you're focusing on weasel words to avoid addressing the actual problem raided by OP, which is the elephant in the room.

Your limited understanding of the problem domain doesn't mean the problem has a simple or even simpler solution. It just means you failed to understand the needs and tradeoffs that led to complexity. Unwittingly, this misunderstanding originates even more complexity.

Listen, there are many types of complexity. Among which there is complexity intrinsic to the problem domain, but there is also accidental complexity that's needlessly created by tradeoffs and failures in analysis and even execution.

If you replace an existing solution with a solution which you believe is simpler, odds are you will have to scramble to address the impacts of all tradeoffs and oversights in your analysis. Addressing those represents complexity as well, complexity created by your solution.

Imagine a web service that has autoscaling rules based on request rates and computational limits. You might look at request patterns and say that this is far too complex, you can just manually scale the system with enough room to handle your average load, and when required you can just click a button and rescale it to meet demand. Awesome work, you simplified your system. Except your system, like all web services, experiences seasonal request patterns. Now you have schedules and meetings and even incidents that wake up your team in the middle of the night. Your pager fires because a feature was released and you didn't quite scaled the service ro accommodate for the new peak load. So now your simple system requires a fair degree of hand holding to work with any semblance of reliability. Is this not a form of complexity as well? Yes, yes it is. You didn't eliminated complexity, it is only shifted to another place. You saw complexity in autoscaling rules and believed you eliminated that complexity by replacing it with manual scaling, but you only ended up shifting that complexity somewhere else. Why? Because it's intrinsic to the problem domain, and requiring more manual work to tackle that complexity introduces more accidental complexity than what is required to address the issue.