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360 points danielmorozoff | 15 comments | | HN request time: 0.012s | source | bottom
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arnaudsm ◴[] No.45033273[source]
[flagged]
replies(19): >>45033369 #>>45033390 #>>45033472 #>>45033493 #>>45033528 #>>45033691 #>>45033977 #>>45034012 #>>45034276 #>>45034628 #>>45034780 #>>45034920 #>>45035070 #>>45035284 #>>45035406 #>>45035412 #>>45035600 #>>45035609 #>>45035620 #
atleastoptimal ◴[] No.45033977[source]
Doesn't matter. That hype will draw attention, which will draw investors, which will draw in money to pay for the best researchers until they become SOTA.

If 3 years ago the tech was available then how come the Neuralink patients never got that? I'm sure they'd be the first to sign up.

Distribution is part of innovation. Brain computer interfaces exist but those who would be willing to undergo the procedure to get them don't have that option, then an inefficiency exists in the market that can be filled by a competitor. Musk's companies play on the same field as everyone else, but they continue to win because operating efficiency, mind-share and tactics are all part of the game, and he is the best at winning it in many domains.

Edit: I understand the ethical considerations of such a nascent technology. I just feel that we live in a world where miracles exist that could help thousands of lives, but they move too slowly to help those lives. How long are paralyzed people waiting for a cheap way to have some more agency in the world? Is the only way to reach it being available sooner doing unscrupulous things that buck safety requirements?

replies(3): >>45033998 #>>45034041 #>>45035518 #
1. cramsession ◴[] No.45034041[source]
That's not how things have played out with Tesla. They have all the investment in the world and the most irrational valuation to have ever graced the public markets, yet their tech is years behind competitors.
replies(2): >>45034089 #>>45034422 #
2. d0gsg0w00f ◴[] No.45034089[source]
But they were first to market. That's 90% of the work. There's a huge gap between "perfect unrealized idea" and "shit you can actually buy". Hate the man all you want, he'll go down in history as the Edison of electric vehicles, even though others will undoubtedly surpass the initial public offering technologically.
replies(3): >>45034121 #>>45035399 #>>45035487 #
3. cramsession ◴[] No.45034121[source]
The claim was that Musk's companies will "win" though, and they aren't (aside from the irrational valuation). Maybe Space X is winning, but Tesla is a minor player in the auto market with declining revenue.
4. atleastoptimal ◴[] No.45034422[source]
Does any other consumer car brand have a self-driving mode as good as Tesla's?
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5. fuzzylightbulb ◴[] No.45034707[source]
"Tastiest steaming pile at the dog park" is a curious honor to wrap one's champion in but perhaps I'm not the target audience
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6. rogerrogerr ◴[] No.45034813{3}[source]
That “steaming pile at the dog park” drives me driveway-to-parking-lot without intervention on 100% of my drives now. It’s one of the best steaming piles I’ve ever seen and I would pay many dollars for that steaming pile on future cars I purchase.
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7. FireBeyond ◴[] No.45035213[source]
Well there are other manufacturers willing to assume the legal liability for accidents in their self driving mode so… yes?
8. FireBeyond ◴[] No.45035224{4}[source]
> would pay many dollars for that steaming pile on future cars I purchase.

Thankfully Elon has already got that sorted for you! $12k, and if you sell your Tesla for a new one, you’ll have to buy it again! Doesn’t transfer with you (or the car for that matter, it just vanishes on title transfer).

replies(1): >>45035493 #
9. dghlsakjg ◴[] No.45035399[source]
First to what market?

Electric cars have been sold since the 1800s (electric vehicles predate the 4-cycle internal combustion engine). Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota all had serial production of EVs in the 1990s or earlier. The land speed record holder in 1900 was an electric vehicle. Tesla wasn't first, they were relatively late, they just got it right in a number of ways.

Self driving? Maybe, but there is a lot of argument about whether a Tesla is self driving. Based on the fact that Tesla themselves require a human driver ready to intervene, it isn't a credible claim.

replies(1): >>45065499 #
10. wombatpm ◴[] No.45035487[source]
Turns out Edison was a jerk like Elon as well. At least according to Tesla.
replies(1): >>45065475 #
11. rogerrogerr ◴[] No.45035493{5}[source]
Literally everything you wrote is false, you should educate yourself more to avoid spreading misinformation:

1. FSD on a new car is currently $8k [0]

2. FSD has been transferable on buying a new car for a while - there’s usually some kind of promo [1]

3. If you don’t transfer it to a new car, it does transfer with the car [2]

—-

0: https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview

1: https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-transfer

2: I bought my car used and FSD stayed with the car, the default behavior unless you use a promo like [1]

replies(1): >>45035516 #
12. FireBeyond ◴[] No.45035516{6}[source]
Oh good! They've done better, then.

It was $12K. And as you acknowledge, it was non-transferable until relatively recently.

13. d0gsg0w00f ◴[] No.45065475{3}[source]
Exactly my point
14. d0gsg0w00f ◴[] No.45065499{3}[source]
Of course others were first to the technology, but you can't argue with Tesla being first to get EVs in the hands of everyday consumers. That's the market part of "first to market".
replies(1): >>45078017 #
15. dghlsakjg ◴[] No.45078017{4}[source]
That is exactly what I'm arguing. "Everyday consumers" have had access to production electric vehicles since the 1800s.

Tesla provably weren't "first to market" as I pointed out. Anyone could have bought an EV in 1900, more than a full century before Tesla existed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_Vehicle_Company).

Anyone could have bought one in the 1990s too.

Tesla was not first to market in any way. They became so popular that they have come to define the market in many people's minds, but there were mass market electric vehicles before Tesla made them. The Nissan Leaf was available for years before the Model S. Nissan had the first lithium battery vehicles in the 1990s.

I don't know why you are trying to martyr yourself on this hill. Being first to market rarely matters, despite what tech circles believe. The iPod, iPhone, Facebook, and Tesla were all followers in their respective markets, but have since become defining products.

At this point, even if we - for some reason - accept that Tesla was first to market with the Roadster, it isn't proving to be a lasting advantage. BYD is selling more electric cars than them starting last year, a trend that has gone into hyperdrive this year as Tesla sales go negative for the 2nd year in a row while BYD continues to dominate.