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95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

(thedailyadda.com)
418 points speckx | 14 comments | 21 Aug 25 15:36 UTC | HN request time: 0.441s | source | bottom
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JCM9 ◴[21 Aug 25 16:22 UTC] No.44974621[source]▶
We are entering the “Trough of disillusionment.” These hype cycles are very predictable. GPT-5 being panned as a disappointment after endless hype may go down as GenAI’s “jump the shark” moment.

It’s all fun and games until the bean counters start asking for evidence of return on investment. GenAI folks better buckle up. Bumps ahead. The smart folks are already quietly preparing for a shift to ride the next hype wave up while others ride this train to the trough’s bottom.

Cue a bunch of increasingly desperate puff PR trying to show this stuff returns value.

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1. frozenport ◴[21 Aug 25 16:29 UTC] No.44974721[source]▶
Yo what’s the next hype cycle that smart folks like us should be working on?
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2. belter ◴[21 Aug 25 16:38 UTC] No.44974822[source]▶
The US mix of government and enterprise. You want Capital you need to be MAGA

"Donald Trump and Silicon Valley's Billionaire Elegy" - https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-and-silicon-valleys...

"Secret White House spreadsheet ranks US companies based on loyalty to Trump" - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/15/secret-white...

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3. gmd63 ◴[21 Aug 25 16:43 UTC] No.44974892[source]▶
Smartest people will be working against that. You're thinking of opportunistic people with myopia.
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4. quotemstr ◴[21 Aug 25 16:47 UTC] No.44974970[source]▶
Defense will increasingly become a national priority over the next few decades. Pax Americana is teetering.
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5. belter ◴[21 Aug 25 16:49 UTC] No.44975006{3}[source]▶
The law firms failed to do so.
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6. Terr_ ◴[21 Aug 25 16:50 UTC] No.44975018[source]▶
The next hype-cycle might not relate to software. I'm thinking of the (smaller, shorter) phase where "nanotechnology" was getting slapped onto everything including laundry detergent.
7. deepdarkforest ◴[21 Aug 25 16:56 UTC] No.44975110[source]▶
That and consumer robotics. The latter will explode if (big if) RL and llm reasoning get combined into something solid. Lots and lots of smart people are working on it already of course, we are seeing great improvements but nothing really usable. i think we will finally get to a real hype stage in maybe 3-4 years
8. herval ◴[21 Aug 25 17:22 UTC] No.44975484{3}[source]▶
Pretty much the entire tech industry has bent the knee by now - they even gifted the new ruler with golden statues. It's not just a handful of people...
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9. gmd63 ◴[21 Aug 25 17:28 UTC] No.44975568{4}[source]▶
Some of them have certainly flagged themselves as opportunistic and myopic.
10. gmd63 ◴[21 Aug 25 17:31 UTC] No.44975598{4}[source]▶
Few people have the balls to do the right thing when the risks pass a certain limit. And yet it's most important to do the right thing at the largest scale.
11. zzzeek ◴[21 Aug 25 17:48 UTC] No.44975833[source]▶
mRNA was set to be huge but US voters apparently didnt want it.
12. rpcope1 ◴[21 Aug 25 18:18 UTC] No.44976203[source]▶
Probably defense and robotics.
13. bitmasher9 ◴[21 Aug 25 20:27 UTC] No.44977653[source]▶
That’s the $100M question. Pick the answer correctly and you’ll get record breaking compensation levels.
14. zzzeek ◴[22 Aug 25 17:11 UTC] No.44987039{4}[source]▶
and when Trump keels over and dies, what happens then? sort of a brittle business plan