LLM Inevitabilism

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipping, no waiting. This was the future. It was inevitable.

Yesterday I wanted to rewrite a program to use a large library that would have required me to dive deep down into the documentation or read its code to tackle my use case. As a first try, I just copy+pasted the whole library and my whole program into GPT 4.1 and told it to rewrite it using the library. It succeeded at the first attempt. The rewrite itself was small enough that I could read all code changes in 15 minutes and make a few stylistic changes. Done. Hours of time saved. This is the future. It is inevitable.

PS: Most replies seem to compare my experience to experiences that the responders have with agentic coding, where the developer is iteratively changing the code by chatting with an LLM. I am not doing that. I use a "One prompt one file. No code edits." approach, which I describe here:

https://www.gibney.org/prompt_coding

Compare these positive introductory experiences with two technologies that were pushed extremely hard by commercial interests in the past decade: crypto/web3 and VR/metaverse.

Neither was ever able to offer this kind of instant usefulness. With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game. (At this point, a lot of people reasonably start thinking of pyramid schemes and multi-level marketing which have the same kind of joining experience.)

With the “metaverse”, you clear out a space around you, strap a heavy thing on your head, and shut yourself into an artificial environment. After the first oohs and aahs, you enter a VR chat room… And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

> With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game.

This became a problem later due to governments cracking down on cryptos and some terrible technical choices made transactions expensive just as adoption was ramping. (Pat yourselves on the back, small blockers.)

My first experience with crypto was buying $5 in bitcoin from a friend. If I didn't do it that way I could go on a number of websites and buy crypto without opening an account, via credit card, or via SMS. Today, most of the $5 would be eaten by fees, and buying for cash from an institution requires slow and intrusive KYC.

> buying for cash from an institution requires slow and intrusive KYC.

Hello my friend, grab a seat so we can contemplate the wickedness of man. KYC is not some authoritarian or entrenched industry response to fintech upstarts, it's a necessary thing that protects billions of people from crime and corruption.

That's an unreasonably charitable reading of the purpose of KYC. It's primarily about government control of the primary medium of economic exchange. As always, this benefits the privileged at the expense of the less privileged.

Its use to limit competition from cryptocurrency is a perfect example of that. A major market which crypto was supposed to be able to serve - the "unbanked" - are largely locked out of it. Turns out giving poor people access to money is not a feature that the system wants to allow.

The benefit you claim for KYC is a marketing bullet point side effect at best.

> As always, this benefits the privileged at the expense of the less privileged.

This is all quite a naive look at the world. The least privileged don't have any money, so by definition aren't hurt by KYC.

Capital is power and power makes the world go round. If the powerful of the world desire one thing above all else, it's not to have any scrutiny over how they acquire more power and make use of it, with financial privacy being a very large part of that.

Financial privacy is without doubt important for the regular citizens, and we should have laws in place that protect it. There is no reason for the government to have access to your transactions outside a well-functioning system of checks and balances, court orders and warrants etc.

But financial privacy maximalists strike me as useful idiots for unrestrained power. There is nothing good that society has to gain from allowing anonymous transfers of billions of dollars across borders. Once you tolerate anonymous finance, an entire bestiary of crimes and abuses become possible or easier, without any benefit for the common man. This was widely the case in the second half of the 20th century, and the financial industry had no problem laundering the profits made from the misery and death of the wretched of the earth, as long as they got their cut.

KYC is foremost a tool for democracy and checks on power. It's not the only tool and it can't operate by itself, but you need it in place before you can even ask the question "what are the reasonable and socially useful limits of financial privacy?"