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LLM Inevitabilism

(tomrenner.com)
1611 points SwoopsFromAbove | 19 comments | | HN request time: 2.908s | source | bottom
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mg ◴[] No.44568158[source]
In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipping, no waiting. This was the future. It was inevitable.

Yesterday I wanted to rewrite a program to use a large library that would have required me to dive deep down into the documentation or read its code to tackle my use case. As a first try, I just copy+pasted the whole library and my whole program into GPT 4.1 and told it to rewrite it using the library. It succeeded at the first attempt. The rewrite itself was small enough that I could read all code changes in 15 minutes and make a few stylistic changes. Done. Hours of time saved. This is the future. It is inevitable.

PS: Most replies seem to compare my experience to experiences that the responders have with agentic coding, where the developer is iteratively changing the code by chatting with an LLM. I am not doing that. I use a "One prompt one file. No code edits." approach, which I describe here:

https://www.gibney.org/prompt_coding

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pavlov ◴[] No.44569391[source]
Compare these positive introductory experiences with two technologies that were pushed extremely hard by commercial interests in the past decade: crypto/web3 and VR/metaverse.

Neither was ever able to offer this kind of instant usefulness. With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game. (At this point, a lot of people reasonably start thinking of pyramid schemes and multi-level marketing which have the same kind of joining experience.)

With the “metaverse”, you clear out a space around you, strap a heavy thing on your head, and shut yourself into an artificial environment. After the first oohs and aahs, you enter a VR chat room… And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

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1. zorked ◴[] No.44569711[source]
> With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game.

This became a problem later due to governments cracking down on cryptos and some terrible technical choices made transactions expensive just as adoption was ramping. (Pat yourselves on the back, small blockers.)

My first experience with crypto was buying $5 in bitcoin from a friend. If I didn't do it that way I could go on a number of websites and buy crypto without opening an account, via credit card, or via SMS. Today, most of the $5 would be eaten by fees, and buying for cash from an institution requires slow and intrusive KYC.

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2. cornholio ◴[] No.44569749[source]
> buying for cash from an institution requires slow and intrusive KYC.

Hello my friend, grab a seat so we can contemplate the wickedness of man. KYC is not some authoritarian or entrenched industry response to fintech upstarts, it's a necessary thing that protects billions of people from crime and corruption.

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3. ImPostingOnHN ◴[] No.44570097[source]
So was the telescreen.
4. ilaksh ◴[] No.44570224[source]
There are Ethereum, Algorand, many alternatives with low fees.
5. antonvs ◴[] No.44570524[source]
That's an unreasonably charitable reading of the purpose of KYC. It's primarily about government control of the primary medium of economic exchange. As always, this benefits the privileged at the expense of the less privileged.

Its use to limit competition from cryptocurrency is a perfect example of that. A major market which crypto was supposed to be able to serve - the "unbanked" - are largely locked out of it. Turns out giving poor people access to money is not a feature that the system wants to allow.

The benefit you claim for KYC is a marketing bullet point side effect at best.

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6. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44570762{3}[source]
It doesn't really matter what use cases cryptocurrencies were supposed to have — their actual use cases turned out to be scams and speculation. We can wax philosophic about the failed promise, but to a rounding error scams and speculation have always been their only use cases.

Which makes it very understandable that crypto companies became subject to KYC laws as they tried to scale up to serve the American public! Online gambling and securities trading are already subject to KYC. The rest of the activity is the scams and crime that (despite your cynical reading) KYC was intended to fight in the first place.

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7. ImPostingOnHN ◴[] No.44571072{4}[source]
If I understand the discussion correctly:

Your opinion is that the benefits of KYC (safety) outweigh the downsides of KYC (giving up liberty).

The other poster's opinion is that the downsides outweigh the benefits.

There is a quote out there regarding those who would sacrifice liberty to obtain safety, but it slips my mind at the moment.

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8. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44571293{5}[source]
Careening at 90 miles per hour through a school zone crosswalk as kids dive out of the way: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
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9. cornholio ◴[] No.44571552{3}[source]
> As always, this benefits the privileged at the expense of the less privileged.

This is all quite a naive look at the world. The least privileged don't have any money, so by definition aren't hurt by KYC.

Capital is power and power makes the world go round. If the powerful of the world desire one thing above all else, it's not to have any scrutiny over how they acquire more power and make use of it, with financial privacy being a very large part of that.

Financial privacy is without doubt important for the regular citizens, and we should have laws in place that protect it. There is no reason for the government to have access to your transactions outside a well-functioning system of checks and balances, court orders and warrants etc.

But financial privacy maximalists strike me as useful idiots for unrestrained power. There is nothing good that society has to gain from allowing anonymous transfers of billions of dollars across borders. Once you tolerate anonymous finance, an entire bestiary of crimes and abuses become possible or easier, without any benefit for the common man. This was widely the case in the second half of the 20th century, and the financial industry had no problem laundering the profits made from the misery and death of the wretched of the earth, as long as they got their cut.

KYC is foremost a tool for democracy and checks on power. It's not the only tool and it can't operate by itself, but you need it in place before you can even ask the question "what are the reasonable and socially useful limits of financial privacy?"

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10. antonvs ◴[] No.44572245{4}[source]
> The least privileged don't have any money, so by definition aren't hurt by KYC.

A very privileged perspective.

What about, for example, undocumented immigrants? Countries allow them in to exploit for cheap labor, so they do have some money. But using banks is difficult and risky because of their documentation situation.

Now, if you're a certain kind of conservative, you'll say that's the way it's supposed to be, because these people having committed a civil violation are "criminals" which the KYC laws are attempting to punish.

But that's not how a compassionate human thinks.

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11. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44572997{5}[source]
Undocumented immigrants can absolutely open bank accounts: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/banking/undocumented-immi...
12. ImPostingOnHN ◴[] No.44573554{6}[source]
Yawn. If that were truly analogous to the current topic, rather than a gross exaggeration, the analogy would be unnecessary.

Replace "Careening at 90 miles per hour through a school zone crosswalk as kids dive out of the way" with the actual topic of "Spending your money on legal things without government tracking and control".

Your point is understood that you personally prefer one thing to another, compared to another person preferring the opposite.

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13. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44573687{7}[source]
And if you were truly able to attack my position on its merits you wouldn't need to keep stripping out all specifics to build a straw man, but here we are!

(Also, the analogy would only be necessary if it were… not analogous to the topic at hand? That makes no sense.)

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14. cornholio ◴[] No.44574265{5}[source]
> undocumented immigrants? Countries allow them in to exploit for cheap labor

It seems you've answered your own question.

Your argument seems constructed as a red hering, "what about <this group of people left in legal limbo by the politicians>, wouldn't they benefit from <the speculative financial scheme I have a stake in, that the state can't track or ban>?". The solution to that problem is, you know, to not have people put into a situation where they are exploited and do not have legal rights; and in general, the solution to human rights failures in democracies surely isn't the suspension of laws, it's better laws and better systems put in place to protect those legal rights.

In the great scheme of things, undocumented migrants in 1st world economies are far from the wretched of the earth I was referring to. For example, it has recently emerged that a fellow country man of mine was involved in supplying european mercenaries into the DR Congo, which were caught in the rebel capture of Goma early 2025. The ring leader was found to have laundered a few millions of euros through cryptocurrency he earned from Congo.

DRC is one of the poorest countries on earth, with the majority of its population without electricity, internet, smartphones etc. They are the real "unbanked" and what bitcoin has done for them is to enable war. Now, it's very likely that the war would have been exactly the same if the mercs were paid using the traditional financial system, but at least that would leave traces and discouraged some of the mercs, since it's an illegal profession in many european countries of origin.

I don't have a solution for all the world's troubles, but this dystopia where you can anonymously buy armed soldiers on the internet to prop up your authoritarian regime or guerilla faction, surely isn't the best of all possible worlds.

15. antonvs ◴[] No.44577123{4}[source]
> It doesn't really matter what use cases cryptocurrencies were supposed to have — their actual use cases turned out to be scams and speculation.

I'm going to translate what you said here out of your obscene level of privilege:

"It doesn't really matter what use cases cryptocurrencies were supposed to have - even if their actual use cases did address those concerns, not all of them did, and what's more important to me, and other hypercapitalists like myself, is to maintain my privilege."

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16. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44577413{5}[source]
I very much did not say that cryptocurrencies' actual use cases address those concerns. In fact, I said the opposite!

Like the other commenter, the reason you need to "translate" my argument is that you can't rebut what I'm actually saying on its merits.

17. ImPostingOnHN ◴[] No.44578305{8}[source]
Why would I attack your position? Your position is totally reasonable given a particular set of pretty common preferences ("this" over "that"). Besides, you never asked me to try to change your mind, so why would I assume you wanted me to spend my time & effort doing that work?

What's more, your "position" (opinion) is no more or less defensible than the opposite opinion held by a different person, or any opinion in general, and other people are no more obliged to "attack" yours than you are theirs (is "attacking" really a good conversation anyways?)

I'm just a third party elucidating that this is 2 people disagreeing based on their own personal preferences, which are based on their own personal opinions, and doesn't need to be a referendum on either person.

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18. jakelazaroff ◴[] No.44578785{9}[source]
You know, I really don't appreciate this coy "I'm not attacking your position, I'm just simplifying it to a tradeoff between liberty and safety and what's that quote about liberty vs. safety again? Ah well, the reader can draw their own conclusions." Your whole "all opinions are valid, who can truly say which is more defensible?" schtick is the last refuge of people who are unable to defend their views.

It's pretty obvious what you're trying to say here, man. Don't piss on my leg and tell me that it's raining.

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19. ImPostingOnHN ◴[] No.44581355{10}[source]
I'm sorry that you don't appreciate my "position" of "not arguing with you because your position is an opinion, and because you never asked anyone to help you change your opinion, and because you don't seem interested in changing it anyways if someone tried".

It sounds like you just want to fight rather than understand why different people have different views. Even after someone tells you that your opinions are common and your conclusions are reasonable given those opinions, you're still trying to find something to fight them on.

I'm more interested in the latter (understanding) than the former (fighting), so I'll pass, but I'm sure you'll have no trouble finding someone else on the internet who wants to fight.