←back to thread

Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

(cognition.ai)
502 points alazsengul | 7 comments | 14 Jul 25 18:07 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
Show context
pm90 ◴[14 Jul 25 19:38 UTC] No.44564397[source]▶
I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
replies(13): >>44564436 #>>44564444 #>>44564507 #>>44564837 #>>44564856 #>>44564871 #>>44565061 #>>44566422 #>>44568840 #>>44570092 #>>44570792 #>>44571345 #>>44572790 #
nikcub ◴[14 Jul 25 20:26 UTC] No.44564871[source]▶
> divorced from any kind of fundamentals

Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.

replies(22): >>44564952 #>>44564962 #>>44565035 #>>44565278 #>>44565374 #>>44565387 #>>44565422 #>>44565447 #>>44565517 #>>44565637 #>>44565761 #>>44565844 #>>44566449 #>>44567425 #>>44568353 #>>44569351 #>>44569976 #>>44570595 #>>44571349 #>>44572134 #>>44575913 #>>44579934 #
benjaminwootton ◴[14 Jul 25 20:36 UTC] No.44564952[source]▶
I’ve always dwelled over $5 a month subscriptions for iPhone apps due to subscription fatigue. I find myself signing up for $200 AI subscriptions without a moments hesitation.
replies(4): >>44564959 #>>44565436 #>>44565470 #>>44566163 #
smith7018 ◴[14 Jul 25 20:37 UTC] No.44564959[source]▶
I hope both of you know that you're in the extreme minority, right?
replies(4): >>44564984 #>>44565017 #>>44565258 #>>44565386 #
christina97 ◴[14 Jul 25 20:43 UTC] No.44565017[source]▶
The point is that if a minority is prepared to pay $200 per month, then what is the majority prepared to pay? I also don’t think this is such an extreme priority, I also know multiple people in real life with these kinds of selections.
replies(1): >>44565072 #
1. jrflowers ◴[14 Jul 25 20:48 UTC] No.44565072{3}[source]▶
>if a minority is prepared to pay $200 per month, then what is the majority prepared to pay?

Nothing. Most people will not pay for a chat bot unless forced to by cramming it into software that they already have to use

replies(2): >>44565411 #>>44565592 #
2. bicx ◴[14 Jul 25 21:15 UTC] No.44565411[source]▶
It's a generic chat LLM product, but ChatGPT now has over 20 million paid subscribers. https://www.theverge.com/openai/640894/chatgpt-has-hit-20-mi...
replies(1): >>44571801 #
3. swat535 ◴[14 Jul 25 21:31 UTC] No.44565592[source]▶
Forget chat bots, most people will not pay for Software, period.

This is _especially_ true for developers in general, which is very ironic considering how our livelihood is dependent on Software.

replies(3): >>44565915 #>>44566623 #>>44574672 #
4. oytis ◴[14 Jul 25 22:13 UTC] No.44565915[source]▶
Yeah, cause we want to be in control of software, understandably. It's hard to charge for software users have full control of - except for donations. That's #1 reason for me to not use any gen AI at the moment - I'm keeping an eye on when (if) open-weight models become useful on consumer hardware though.
5. ac29 ◴[15 Jul 25 00:04 UTC] No.44566623[source]▶
> Forget chat bots, most people will not pay for Software, period.

Apple says their App Store did $53B in "digital goods and services" the US alone last year. Thats not 100% software, but its definitely more than 0%

6. sgt ◴[15 Jul 25 14:56 UTC] No.44571801[source]▶
So $415m revenue per month, annualized $5 billion / yr. Let's say we use a revenue multiple of 4x, that means OpenAI should be valued at $20 billion USD just based on this. Then one obviously has several other factors, given the nature of OpenAI and future potential. Maybe 10x more.

Which puts the current valuations I've heard pretty much in the right ballpark. Crazy, but it could make sense.

7. SJC_Hacker ◴[15 Jul 25 19:02 UTC] No.44574672[source]▶
Games are a big exception here, as is anything in the app store.

But productivity software in general, only a few large companies seem to be able to get away with it. The Office Suite, CRM such as SalesForce.

In the graphics world, Maya and 3DS Max. Adobe has been holding on.