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Blind to Disruption – The CEOs Who Missed the Future

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128 points ArmageddonIt | 4 comments | 08 Jul 25 13:41 UTC | HN request time: 0.581s | source
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dmbche ◴[08 Jul 25 15:55 UTC] No.44501178[source]▶
Great read!

I wonder if there is something noteworthy about Studebacker - yes, they were the only carriage maker out of 4000 to start making cars, and therefore the CEO "knew better" than the other ones.

But then again, Studebacker was the single largest carriage maker and a military contractor for the Union - in other words they were big and "wealthy" enough to consider the "painful transformation" as the article puts it.

How many of the 3999 companies that didn't acutally had any capacity to do so?

Is it really a lesson in divining the future, or more survivorship bias?

replies(1): >>44501381 #
1. bryanlarsen ◴[08 Jul 25 16:11 UTC] No.44501381[source]▶
Agreed. The autombile was two innovations, not one. If Ford had created a carriage assembly line in an alternate history without automobiles, how many carriage makers would he have put out of business? The United States certainly couldn't have supported 4000 carriage assembly lines. Most of those carriage makers did not have the capacity or volume to finance and support an assembly line.
replies(2): >>44505129 #>>44505551 #
2. flomo ◴[09 Jul 25 00:04 UTC] No.44505129[source]▶
That's the part missing from TFA, there were thousands of auto 'startups', but only a handful survived the depression.
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3. analog31 ◴[09 Jul 25 01:33 UTC] No.44505551[source]▶
Also, the auto built on some technologies that were either invented or refined by the bicycle industry: Pneumatic tires, ball bearings, improved steel alloys, and a gradual move to factory production. Many of the first paved roads were the result of demand from bicyclists.
4. mcswell ◴[09 Jul 25 02:33 UTC] No.44505848[source]▶
I might be a wealthy person if "my" company had survived the Depression.

Which company is that, you ask? My last name is Maxwell.

(But afaik, none of my ancestors owned or even worked for that car company.)