>that only counts recurring revenue.
>monthly revenue has consistently been 20 to 50 percent higher.
That's the way to do it.
Where you virtually have to go back and figure how much earlier you had actually reached a major milestone.
Good. But I think this is the most important piece of advice that one should follow:
> Actually show up every day.
It is the easiest thing anyone can do, however, it is the hardest for anyone to do every. single. day. nonstop.
You can find 5 users who will pay but that doesn't validate a million a month.
What does product validation mean here.
> Back in 2021, I was inspired by the financial independence movement and wanted a better way to plan my own life. I couldn’t find the right tool, so I started building.
That sounds a bit like selling shovels to the miners. Which is not a, uh, dig at the project, just an observation.
There’s an ARR metric trap in the founder community where people focus on revenue rather than on reaching a level of take-home income comparable to what they could make at a normal job. The former is a lot easier than the latter (especially in the US for people who can take home $250K fairly easily working in tech) - as the saying goes, you can make infinite revenue by selling dollars for 99 cents.
Earlier in my career, I worked on some things as a corporate engineer that were hard to care about, and there's just no comparison.
For extreme examples of ARR growth at 0% profit paying off, look at Uber, Amazon, and ServiceNow. I know these are very much outliers. All three had rapid revenue growth but profits at (or far below) zero. But for all three, the founders are sitting pretty today.
Congratulations for walking this line correctly.
I agree that some sort of market validation is necessary to at least pretend you are on the former not the latter. Those early usage spikes are helpful reminders that there is a business here somewhere.
I'll also make a note that you spent time on marketing from the early days. Writing blog posts, promoting said posts, having a Discord server, committing to answer emails, all of this is marketing and its likely lead to success more than the code.
I notice whenever there was a dip in revenue, marketing (in the form of more blog posts) was the response. I suspect that was intentional, and definitely a better approach than "let me go away and silently code more features."
So there are valuable lessons to others here. Congratulations not just on the current success but also on sharing the path that leads to success. Ultimately you can show the way, but you can't make people learn from it.
Oh, and I like the bootstrapping approach. I did the same, and I'm not sorry. It's longer and harder but also skips an enormous amount of extra work.
But congrats to the OP. It is impressive growth for a bootstrapped business.
https://successfulsoftware.net/2010/05/27/learning-lessons-f...
Something that stuck with me from Poor Charlie’s Almanack is that low expectations are a cornerstone of a happy life. I built this for myself first, so when people actually signed up and paid, it was incredibly motivating. I was thrilled to spend my free time treating those early customers like royalty and building more of what they wanted.
If I had instead come into this with the expectation of quick success, I doubt I would have made it through those early years.
And cheers from one bootstrapper to another. It's not easy, but I can't imagine a more rewarding way to build.
We're all building tools for other people. As long the users like a product, I think it's moot to call it shovel selling.
The struggle is real, thank you for being a positive light to all who are on this path. Best to you!
Partly I was scared of putting my own projections at risk. But eventually I realized I'd have way more regret if I passed up the opportunity to go all-in on something I loved.
>Caring is kind of a superpower.
>the quality of work.
>I was thrilled to spend my free time treating those early customers like royalty
Well, the secret's out, thanks for that, now anybody can do it ;)
I agree it would be really nice if it worked well, but my understanding from other founders is that aggregator reliability still leaves a lot to be desired in 2025, and is always a huge expense and support burden. As a small, bootstrapped team building a long-term planning tool where current balances are only a small piece of the picture, we need to be really careful about what we choose to take on. Currently there are still dozens of other high-priority feature requests that will also deliver real value but without those downsides.
I do go back-and-forth on this though. And I think eventually there will come a time for it.
Glad to hear you're enjoying the tool, and thanks so much for your support!
p.s. also might be worth noting that there is a plugin system, and community members have built integrations that can pull in balance updates automatically from some of the popular budgeting tools.
Also, thank you for sharing the ups and downs. Seeing the details of the monthly bars chart was super enlightening. I usually only see the nice looking overall positive growth chart without any nuance, so I really appreciate the transparency
Hope you keep going and growing
I really wish just saving a basic plan to refer back to didn't cost $100/yr. The one-off 'Basic' plans never made sense to me, considering it takes hours to set up a relatively complete model -- might not even have time to do it all in one sitting.
Also, how did you find Jon and what was their skillset when you met? Did they come on as a contractor in the beginning?
For the first few years, I was up at all hours answering questions. It feels amazing to offload some of that now that we have more of a team.
Like he mentioned in another comment here, Jon actually found me.
A warning to others starting new ventures: once you get a whiff of traction, and sometimes even before then, the parasites will ooze out of various nooks and crannies, attempting to latch onto a fresh new host.
HN loves to pound on MBAs weaseling their way into startups, but opportunists may come from unexpected quarters.
I experienced a classmate sidling up to offer "translation services" for 2% of outstanding shares. Then there was a startup that proposed a "merger" which would basically allow them to walk away from failure in exchange for equity.
I’ve appreciated the addition of new features over time and have recommended the tool to many friends and relatives. Hope to see another post in a couple years when you’ve hit $10M/yr!
I use a custom Google Sheet to track retirement portfolio performance. If =GOOGLEFINANCE isn't enough, there is a nice paid extension called WiseSheets, which adds a =WISE function that fills all the gaps.
My monthly ProjectionLab process is to update the "Current Finances" values on the first of the month, using the values from the other tools. Works well enough for me!
Pretty sure parent was referring to gross profit, because that's what you'd look at to pay your salary. These examples are not relevant.
"We’ve also added a few contractors to the team. And these guys are legends. They come straight from the ProjectionLab user community"
So... the product was obviously built, because it had a "user community;" so now they've added contractors? Whoop dee doo.
Is there some advice or playbook we're supposed to take away from this? Or is it self-congratulatory spam?
Something people don't always realize instantly is that with a long-term planning tool, the point is to spend the bulk of your time focused on the future, not fixating on all the latest daily stock price fluctuations... in fact, those can sometimes be a source of noise/distraction.
some bloggers and thought leaders in the financial independence space also found the tool and shared it in the early years, which helped get some momentum going.
we're finally starting to make a little headway now with SEO, and we're beginning to reinvest/experiment with some paid channels for the first time this year.
Similar approach and story to myself, in that I started a side project for my own use and interest, and then released it to great feedback as a side hustle, went part-time and over the last 2.5 years managed to go full time.
I've yet to reach your $1M ARR though.. but hopefully getting there one day!
Recently wrote up a Year in Review which touches on similar learnings as you've written over the last year:
https://www.magiclasso.co/insights/ad-blocker-year-in-review...
Have also had a keen interest in FIRE over the years and hadn't heard of your product... personally I've just kept my own spreadsheet which runs through scenarios, progress etc.
She thinks I’m a superboss, but I keep repeating her: We have to be nice to customers, we also have to give benefits to employees, otherwise both would leave us. It’s not a choice, it’s market pressure.
I attribute the search traffic growth to:
1. A critical mass of content, after a number of years of writing - without a lot of search traffic for the first few years
2. Re-wrote and polished some of my earlier articles so that they were improved
3. Wrote more guides related to my app which were helpful to users; such as:
Safari Extensions Guide - https://www.magiclasso.co/insights/safari-extensions-guide/
Best Web Browser - https://www.magiclasso.co/insights/best-web-browser-2025/
> Also curious how you incorporate AI tools into your workflow, if at all.
Not a lot myself, except for sometimes helping with polishing and checking of writing and sometimes coming up with options etc.
In my experience AI tools are like having a junior assistant – they can be helpful but you always need to check and polish everything they do.
And yeah, with the state of AI tooling, I think junior engineers, assistants, new grads, etc, may currently have the most to worry about.
You can see the full list here: https://www.magiclasso.co/insights/
Perhaps the age of the content helps, though I haven't done a deep dive into SEO practices myself. In the last year, when search traffic increased, I've increased the output to almost 1 article per month.
- Any of a few dozen "retirement calculators," each consisting of 6 fields and very simple outputs
- Building out a series of buggy spreadsheets
- Projection Lab
After messing around for it a bit, it was a "shut up and take my money" situation. It was cheap, it was powerful, it was nice to use, and it has been the foundation for my personal financial strategy for the last few years!
> Congratulations for walking this line correctly.
As much as I like to agree with this message ... isn't there a big portion of luck involved here that makes the difference between the two sides of this line? In other words, aren't we seeing huge survivorship bias at play here?
That's what makes the line so hard to walk. Surely skill helps, but more than most like to admit it's the unpredictability of outside forces that makes the line really hard to walk.
Most SaaS products like these require you to go through their complicated setup just to see what they are about.
Also, highly recommend "The Mom Test" by Rob Fitzpatrick - https://www.momtestbook.com.
It is so revealing, especially to people like me who naturally tend to think that just automation of processes is going to make something people want. This book is, by far, the best resource I found to get out of that mindset and learn how to get real feedback.
I appreciate that you have a (generous looking) free tier and various screenshots - but it just seems like something I'd want to play around with before taking the time to create an account and start entering personal data into.
It depends; you can learn a lot more from a failure than from a success. Every success has some element of good luck in it but that element is difficult to identify.
Every failure has a number of non-luck related reasons for failing, which are usually easily identified.
Luck and survivorship bias may not be the same thing.
Well-written and speaks for every struggling entrepreneur out there.
Congratulations, Kyle and his wonderful team!
I'd love to have some info about the hiring of Jon, anything you may feel like sharing, while I realize a lot of it is very confidential. For example:
- I am wondering how the working relationship got started since you write that he "spent a year contributing real value", and he was not asking for equity upfront. Did you hire him as contractor initially, did he volunteer his time?
- the structure of the deal with him, and of course the equity part, especially _if/while_ you are not planning to sell the business. Maybe you have some pointers on "possible deal structures" that you looked into without spilling the beans on the actual deal?
I know I am asking a lot, I hope it does not hurt to ask, so realistically I don't expect any answer, but any breadcrumbs would be so valuable/helpful! In any case, thank you so much already.
Am a potential customer.
I would like to understand what all market data is built in for the historical simulations and future predictions. I currently do financial projections in Excel, the critical missing part for my own calculations being the market data.
How long is the free trial for premium version? (I could not find on the website.)
Thanks.
The golfer won't regret their day on the course. And if you fail on the passion project it won't feel like a fail.
I have another idea too. It's the win anyway system. Pick something that if you fail you use those skills at work and get ahead. E.g. the side project is also the training for the gap in your career.
And that's the recipe for failure right there. Your passion side project needs to be fueled by passion, not thinking about somebody else's success that you are trying to replicate.
Like Kyle writes keep showing up to make it a little better every day. Today again I will show up, but today I'll think of him and it will help me.
What's your passion project? How do _you_ keep the motivation every day? How long has it been?
Failure stories frequently aren't posted by the authors, they don't think it is interesting enough but someone else did. Such stories are often written as a post-mortem for those originally invested (in terms of intellectual interest, being a user of [thing-or-service], or financial investment) or even just as a therapy exercise before moving on, and not pushed to a wider audience by the author.
Do you really need spoon-feeding that directly?
The whole site is about the product. Much more information about it is literally a click-or-two away. Describing it specifically on that page, given how much information is already around it on directly linked pages, would seem superfluously wordy (even to me, someone who just used “superfluously” instead of “overly”).
> Or is it self-congratulatory spam?
Largely, yes. But no more than so people having anniversary parties are showing off, do you begrudge that sort of thing too?
I much prefer that to a self-aggrandising comment essentially stating “I'm better than them because I wouldn't post something like that” (yes, as some may be wondering, I am self-aware enough to acknowledge the strong touch of hypocrisy in that comment!).
You're persistent if your project succeeded but you're stubborn if you keep at it despite unfavourable outcomes.
The whole point to me is getting to a stage where you can work when and where you want and only if you want to. Having it set up in such a way where its small enough to manage but big enough to self sustain if you wanted to go off on vacation for a few weeks at the drop of a hat.
To my knowledge Pieter does both himself, but he built a sizable following online, which boosts all his marketing efforts.
If you enjoy Charlie’s, you will definitely enjoy Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow, especially the part about being an « expert »: a few talks in empty classrooms in a famous Uni, a radio show nobody knows and voila, you get some cred!
Do you have LLMs in mind in your SEO strategy (like really long articles bragging about how good your app are in a non human readable way?
Would love to have your thoughts on that!
> live securities prices
Approaches involving password sharing you're right to stay well away from.
Literal survival for early cultures was often a matter of luck. Agriculture was an innovation that improved the odds. Early cultures that practiced agriculture outperformed those that did not, and were more likely to survive black swan events. All major cultures in existence are now based in agriculture.
Should we assume then that because we only see agrarian cultures that that is not useful information, because of survivorship bias in the resulting sample?
On the contrary, survival itself is the signal that is useful… it’s really a matter of what behavior the signal can be attributed to- was it the agriculture, or was it the human sacrifices? Was it the red ochre face paint? The storing of grain in pots instead of skins?
Failure bias is just as large of a red herring. It’s easy to imagine that it retrospect, we understand why failures happen, and sometimes the reasons are very clear. That’s why there is often more to be learned from failures than from successes. But still, it’s easy to look at the things they did right that successful example B also did, and then conclude those things weren’t critical to success because they sometimes end in failure.
The point is that we shouldn’t judge the value of information based on ideas like “survivor bias” but instead look for more methodical and logical connections between causes and outcomes, and not fall victim to cargo-culting nor casual, hand wavey dismissal of potential lessons.
Survivorship bias mitigation is a matter of determining which survivor signals are instrumental , and those which are coincidental.
Many things are fraught with risk and low probabilities of success. That does not make them primarily a matter of luck.
Aviation is a great example of an environment that is nearly 100 percent risk, where without knowledge and the correct tools the very small chance of not dying would be purely a matter of luck.
I think 1M ARR shows you are on to something and getting sales off the bat is a good indicator.
Not an expert but I feel PMF is a rear view mirror thing.
Fun fact: The project survived a total destruction of the datacenter where it was hosted (remember the ovh incident?) which took it offline for maybe 4 months (no backups at the time). Luckily the server it was on didn't get melted.
Also at some point I started questioning why was I still working on it for so little. My wife convinced me to keep going and to be honest I still enjoyed working on it.
Then on year 7 things started to change, and on year 8 I was able to quit my daily job! I'm on year 10 now. It's not a 7 figure business, but I enjoy every single day. Also the flexibility it gives me is excellent.
Just an annecdotal bit of feedback: I would like to continue using ProjectionLab but $109/year is beyond what I'm willing to spend, especially given ProjectionLab doesn't integrate with any live tracking of property prices / investment portfolio valuation etc.
If it were $40/year I probably would subscribe. But $109 is too much to justify (and I am reasonably well off).
Have you A/B tested different pricing levels to find the sweet spot that maximises revenue?
You have to take the risk in your life or you're gonna be stuck where you are.
Was he lucky? Perhaps.
Would he make it if he wouldn't risk it and put in all the work that he need with nothing to show if he would fail?
He would not.
(who says products by indie devs always have higher long-term support risk?!)
I'm really happy to hear it turned around for you. The 4 months of down time sound terrifying. Can you share more about how you navigated that, how it impacted customers, and what you were able to restore vs what you couldn't, and what processes you changed in the aftermath?
I recommend The Book of Why by Judea Pearl as a starting point for digging into the lesser-known techniques of assessing causality. The causality work over the last couple of decades is still under-appreciated and not used often enough.
One is unlikely to find anything close to rigor when it comes to business or entrepreneurial books. They can be a starting point for analysis, but their bias to tell an interesting story and sell copies often work at odds with truth seeking.
At the risk of oversimplification, one decent model for acting comes from decision theory. (1) Look at the data probabilistically and act accordingly. (2) If you don’t have enough data, assess the cost/benefit of acquiring more.
But we don’t have the time or the discipline to make all important decisions this way, do we? Probably not. So, (3): if you act on intuition, be honest with yourself about that.
I try not to exaggerate, but these three principles might be sufficient to subsume all other business advice.
Embrace the uncertainty and move forward anyway.
I’m now a single working mom supporting 2 young kiddos on my own, so my time has become limited; but I’ll be back :)
Maybe he's in that valley of despair right now that the article shows occurs many times. Passion is fleeting and at times you just need a little inspirational jolt to get back into it and regain some of that passion.
Also, to share a personal experience, passion is not sufficient. You need favorable conditions as well (or the ability to create them). For example, the article talks about working nights and weekends. I'm not sure if the author has kids or what the arrangement is in his family, but personally, as much as I wanted to work whole weekends on my passion project, I would feel like a shitty father if I ignored my kids over the weekend for months, so the project gets put on the back burner a lot while I'm biking with my kids outside and having fun.