Most active commenters
  • GMoromisato(3)
  • nandomrumber(3)
  • (3)
  • griffzhowl(3)
  • ben_w(3)

←back to thread

342 points divbzero | 54 comments | | HN request time: 1.264s | source | bottom
Show context
GMoromisato ◴[] No.44401068[source]
In case anyone is wondering, we are (sadly) very far from getting an image of this planet (or any extra-solar planet) that is more than 1 pixel across.

At 110 light-years distance you would need a telescope ~450 kilometers across to image this planet at 100x100 pixel resolution--about the size of a small icon. That is a physical limit based on the wavelength of light.

The best we could do is build a space-based optical interferometer with two nodes 450 kilometers apart, but synchronized to 1 wavelength. That's a really tough engineering challenge.

replies(17): >>44401110 #>>44401184 #>>44401253 #>>44401265 #>>44401398 #>>44402344 #>>44402398 #>>44402585 #>>44402661 #>>44402689 #>>44402874 #>>44403215 #>>44403439 #>>44403929 #>>44403949 #>>44404611 #>>44408076 #
1. GolfPopper ◴[] No.44401398[source]
We can do better than that! Using the Sun as a gravitation lens[1], and a probe at a focal point of 542 AU, we could get 25km scale surface resolution on a planet 98 ly away. [2] This would be an immense and time-consuming endeavor, but does seem to be within humanity's current technological capabilities.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_gravitational_lens

2. https://www.nasa.gov/general/direct-multipixel-imaging-and-s...

replies(9): >>44401440 #>>44401445 #>>44401520 #>>44401969 #>>44402006 #>>44402168 #>>44402383 #>>44404832 #>>44406627 #
2. kilroy123 ◴[] No.44401440[source]
I was going to post the same exact thing and links.

Of all the possible space probes or missions we could do. I want this one more than any of them!

3. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.44401445[source]
Do we have a recent cost estimate?
replies(3): >>44401602 #>>44402072 #>>44403288 #
4. GMoromisato ◴[] No.44401520[source]
Agreed! This might be easier than an interferometer. You just need a lot of delta-v
replies(1): >>44402272 #
5. twothreeone ◴[] No.44401602[source]
"We used to look up at the sky and wonder at our place in the stars. Now we just look down, and worry about our place in the dirt."
replies(1): >>44401675 #
6. sho_hn ◴[] No.44401675{3}[source]
It's cynical to assume OP was gunning for "it's too expensive". They might just want to know the size of the challenge to get it done.
replies(2): >>44401845 #>>44407493 #
7. twothreeone ◴[] No.44401845{4}[source]
And it's ironic to scold others for missing a point while missing their point. All good though.
replies(1): >>44402014 #
8. os2warpman ◴[] No.44401969[source]
A maintenance-free power source capable of lasting the 200 or so years it would take to make it to 542 AU does not seem within humanity's current technological capabilities.

Parker at its highest velocity could make it there in a century, but it doesn't have to slow down and stop. Or station keep.

When we have a power source that can do 5kW (I just doubled Hubble, 542 AU would probably require much more for communications) for 100 years I'll agree that its design can be refined and its lifespan extended to 200 and 542 AU is within our reach.

replies(5): >>44402336 #>>44403500 #>>44404634 #>>44405777 #>>44408442 #
9. nandomrumber ◴[] No.44402006[source]
For scale, Voyager 1 is about 167 AU away.
replies(1): >>44403259 #
10. amanaplanacanal ◴[] No.44402014{5}[source]
I missed it too. What was your point?
11. bigiain ◴[] No.44402072[source]
I'd guess less then 1 or 2 hyped AI startup valuations that eventually collapse to nothing.
replies(2): >>44402715 #>>44403123 #
12. rishav_sharan ◴[] No.44402168[source]
I think Tipping of the Cool Worlds youtube channel did a video that we can just use earth for the gravitational lensing and that would be far cheaper

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jgOTZe07eHA

13. cedws ◴[] No.44402272[source]
How do you decelerate once you get there though?
replies(1): >>44402363 #
14. dotnet00 ◴[] No.44402336[source]
With distances that big, is it even necessary to slow down much? The depth of focus is probably a couple dozen AU? Even if it takes the probe a century to get there, if you can squeeze a decade or two of observation out of it without slowing down, there's no reason to bother and instead send a new upgraded telescope every decade or so.

As far as power requirements go, assuming a doubled power demand from Hubble might be a bit excessive. A telescope that far out would have to be nuclear powered, so thermal regulation is 'free'/passive and RCS load is reduced (don't have to constantly adjust to point away from the Earth), which I expect are the biggest power draws on Hubble.

If we assume a 150 year lifetime, with a 3kW draw by EOL and current RTG tech... RTGs have ~6% efficiency, so for 3kW electricity, you need 50kW in heat. RTG electricity output drops ~2% per year, so after 150 years, you have 5% of the initial electrical output, and you get ~0.57W/g of Pu-238. Meaning, you need ~600kg of it to power the telescope this way [https://www.mathscinotes.com/2012/01/nuclear-battery-math/].

That's not a politically feasible amount, but it's not technically impossible with current/near future tech whose development could be spurred on by serious interest in this kind of mission.

'Proper' fission reactors can also do the job, you get higher efficiency and don't have to run the reactors for the entire 150 years besides accounting for decay (e.g. an RTG that needs to provide enough power to keep some clocks running, the electronics and batteries warm, and trigger whatever mechanism would start up the reactor). Probably less than 100kg of Pu-238 just by better reactor efficiency.

replies(3): >>44402372 #>>44402566 #>>44403987 #
15. GMoromisato ◴[] No.44402363{3}[source]
By “delta-v” I mean propellant budget, not initial velocity. So you spend half your delta-v to accelerate out and the other half to decelerate.

But of course, the initial delta-v costs a lot of propellant because it has to push an almost full tank. By the time we have to decelerate the ship will be a lot lighter.

That’s why you needed a full Saturn 3rd stage to send Apollo to the moon, but just the service module to get back to Earth.

I realize now that “a lot of delta-v” is an understatement. 500 AUs is ridiculously far. To get there in under a century you’d need fission-fraction reactors, well beyond our current tech.

replies(1): >>44402526 #
16. ycui1986 ◴[] No.44402372{3}[source]
i don't think modern semiconductor device will last more than 100 years, even without all the radiation. making something last more than a few decades is very hard.
replies(2): >>44404822 #>>44406337 #
17. ycui1986 ◴[] No.44402383[source]
There are also alternative proposals to use Earth's atmosphere refraction for focusing, in a geometrically similar fashion as gravitational lens. It seems more feasible than using Sun's gravitational lensing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrestrial_atmospheric_lens

replies(2): >>44404878 #>>44409646 #
18. kadoban ◴[] No.44402526{4}[source]
> I realize now that “a lot of delta-v” is an understatement. 500 AUs is ridiculously far. To get there in under a century you’d need fission-fraction reactors, well beyond our current tech.

Voyager 1 is 166 AU away, it launched about 50 years ago. So wouldn't we just have to do about twice as well as that, or launch 2 of them in opposite directions? That sounds _very_ hard (Voyager is amazing), but it can't be beyond our current tech, right? We did fairly close to that 50 years ago.

19. os2warpman ◴[] No.44402566{3}[source]
I agree with you.

It is indeed spherical frictionless cow-ly possible if we spend a trillion dollars to increase ORNL's annual Pu production capacity so that it doesn't take 200 years to make 600kg of Pu-238.

When someone demonstrates a complex device (let's set aside power generation how about a valve? Or a capacitor?) that can last a century in space I'll agree that it is actually possible.

That's what "current level of technology" means. The lego bricks exist, now, today, preferably in stock ready for immediate shipment on Digikey, and can be snapped into place.

replies(3): >>44408278 #>>44408850 #>>44439618 #
20. dmos62 ◴[] No.44402715{3}[source]
Thank you for the chuckle.
21. HPsquared ◴[] No.44403123{3}[source]
Those are just financial transactions though, not actual loss of much engineering time etc.
replies(1): >>44403257 #
22. nurettin ◴[] No.44403257{4}[source]
ouch I thought I was cynical
replies(1): >>44403478 #
23. seanhunter ◴[] No.44403259[source]
You’re never going to break into popular science reporting with that sort of attitude. If you are going to do the scale of a small thing, you have to compare it to the size of a banana or the width of a hair if it’s very small. For larger things, “football pitches” are the standard, although “blue whales” and “double-decker busses” are also acceptable units in some circumstances.

So, for scale, Voyager 1 is about 2.5 x 10^11 regulation football pitches away although they vary in size so it could be anywhere between 2.08 x 10^11 and 2.8 x 10^11. Now, see how much more relatable that is for a common person?

replies(1): >>44403448 #
24. thiht ◴[] No.44403288[source]
And more importantly, a story points estimate (t-shirt sizing is obviously XL)
replies(1): >>44403770 #
25. nandomrumber ◴[] No.44403448{3}[source]
Smoots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot
replies(1): >>44403566 #
26. ◴[] No.44403478{5}[source]
27. perihelions ◴[] No.44403500[source]
[deleted]
replies(1): >>44403948 #
28. xg15 ◴[] No.44403566{4}[source]
We should definitely use TeraSmoots more as an astronomically unit.
replies(1): >>44410111 #
29. ainiriand ◴[] No.44403770{3}[source]
Lets get an epic ticket ready.
30. varjag ◴[] No.44403948{3}[source]
It then would have to brake..
replies(1): >>44405454 #
31. griffzhowl ◴[] No.44403987{3}[source]
Wouldn't there be a problem putting 600kg (or even 100kg) of Pu-238 together, because of supercriticality? I couldn't think of a plausible design, but I know next to nothing about this area. Basically I've heard that if you put a lot of this stuff together it'll make a big explosion
replies(1): >>44405063 #
32. cubefox ◴[] No.44404634[source]
> A maintenance-free power source capable of lasting the 200 or so years it would take to make it to 542 AU

It wouldn't take nearly that long. The proposal is to use solar sails. There is a nice video about the details on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQFqDKRAROI

33. le-mark ◴[] No.44404822{4}[source]
Does encasing electronics in lead help against high energy cosmic rays? With cheap kg to orbit one could assume the mass budget would be large.
replies(1): >>44413877 #
34. j_not_j ◴[] No.44404832[source]
Wouldn't be worth the trouble to try.

Why, you ask?

How do you point it? Where do you point it?

You have a "telescope" with a field of view of one-planets worth of pixels. But the planet is in orbit, so it drifts away from the imaged field of view within minutes.

Meanwhile your sensor is travelling away from the "lens" so transverse velocity would be needed to track the orbit at a delta-v and direction that is unknowable. Unknowable, because you have to know where the planet is, within a radius, to put your "sensor" in the right place in the first place.

Imagine taking a straw, place it in a tree, walk away a few km and focus a telescope on the straw and hope to look through the straw to see an airplane flying past. You have the same set of unknowables.

replies(1): >>44405211 #
35. le-mark ◴[] No.44404878[source]
Does size of the planet matter? How about using Saturn or Jupiter?
replies(1): >>44405026 #
36. Balgair ◴[] No.44405026{3}[source]
Yes, the larger the object you're using as a lens, the better the image. This is due to the 'Lens Makers' Equation'. Larger objects like Earth, Jupiter, or the Sun would make for larger radii and therefore better resolution.
37. ben_w ◴[] No.44405063{4}[source]
Criticality isn't hard to avoid, just split it between e.g. 344 units arranged in a 7x7x7 cube with 10cm gaps each way. Or more, I picked that separation and mass division based on guessing.
replies(1): >>44406831 #
38. __MatrixMan__ ◴[] No.44405211[source]
I won't argue that it would be worth the effort, but it would be interesting to set something like that going and just keep scanning. A few years worth of data might turn up interesting things even if it wasn't particularly useful for finding those things a second time.
39. minitoar ◴[] No.44405454{4}[source]
Or just keep launching more so there’s always a usable one
40. fpoling ◴[] No.44405777[source]
Project Orion-type space craft can archive 1000 km/s and can travel within 3 years 542 AU. And this is absolutely feasible technically, just not politically.
41. alex_young ◴[] No.44406337{4}[source]
Considering that the longest continually operating computer is in Voyager 2 and has been running for nearly 50 years I would be surprised if this was actually a problem. https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/635980-lo...
42. catlifeonmars ◴[] No.44406627[source]
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.20236
43. griffzhowl ◴[] No.44406831{5}[source]
Yeah, I thought about doing something like that, but that would make many parallel power-generating units that would only last as long as one unit wouldn't it? Maybe the individual units could be subdivided further and the subunits could be brought together only when a previous unit runs out of power. I don't know enough about how it would actually work
replies(1): >>44407406 #
44. ben_w ◴[] No.44407406{6}[source]
I don't think so. The radioisotope itself is an exponential decay, and only goes faster when critical, not when subdivided; the part I'm not sure about is the thermocouple and why that decays.
replies(1): >>44409380 #
45. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.44407493{4}[source]
I’m genuinely curious what it would cost given recent launch-cost and fabrication advances. If above $10bn, we should keep working on those inputs. If below, it strikes me as more promising than another circular collider.
46. ◴[] No.44408278{4}[source]
47. ◴[] No.44408442[source]
48. Dylan16807 ◴[] No.44408850{4}[source]
> It is indeed spherical frictionless cow-ly possible if we spend a trillion dollars to increase ORNL's annual Pu production capacity so that it doesn't take 200 years to make 600kg of Pu-238.

Oh come on, we used to make so much more of it.

I see estimates that it costs 4 million dollars per pound, plus some scaling costs?

A trillion dollars is not even close to "spherical frictionless cow" when the benchmark is "humanity's current technological capabilities", and a few billion is basically nothing at that scale.

> When someone demonstrates a complex device (let's set aside power generation how about a valve? Or a capacitor?) that can last a century in space I'll agree that it is actually possible.

Is a bunch of stuff lasting 50 years not good evidence? What is your threshold for "demonstrate", do we have to wait 200 years before you can be convinced?

49. griffzhowl ◴[] No.44409380{7}[source]
I see. So the maximum time these units could provide power is the time it would take a subcritical mass to decay to the point that it's no longer useful. So the idea is unworkable for powering very long journeys
replies(1): >>44411335 #
50. Intralexical ◴[] No.44409646[source]
Has anyone explored using the target planet's mechanical motion? As it rotates and orbits, a different part of it will be lit up every hour (and every season). You only get a single pixel at once, but that pixel is localized to a region that scans across the whole surface over time.

For something Earth-like, I think you could definitely make out the Americas, Asia, and probably Africa. Maybe both of the ice caps too, depending how it's oriented and if you're capturing spectra. ...Somebody should mock up a solver in Python.

I'm sure there are other tricks you could use. Diffraction limit schmraction schmidit, real planets aren't point light sources.

51. nandomrumber ◴[] No.44410111{5}[source]
1 AU is 0.879 TeraSmoots
52. ben_w ◴[] No.44411335{8}[source]
Very long journies, eventually everything fails. I suspect that we don't have enough practical experience to be confident of any space mission lasting 100 years even when the power supply is fine.

But also, there are other radioisotopes besides the one currently used. The ~90 year half life of the current normal radioisotope is great for current missions, not the only option.

53. chuckadams ◴[] No.44413877{5}[source]
> Does encasing electronics in lead help against high energy cosmic rays?

Makes them worse unless and until you make the shielding several times thicker than anything you'd be able to launch from the ground. Watched one science program that demonstrated it beautifully where the interviewee stuck several balloons on a board and shot at it with a high-powered rifle, popping just one. Then he stuck a metal plate in front of the balloons and shot it, and the resulting shrapnel popped all the balloons behind it. That's a cosmic ray hitting shielding.

That's also an unsolved problem with any Mars trip. Electronics can be built redundantly to recover from cosmic ray hits. Humans not so much.

54. dotnet00 ◴[] No.44439618{4}[source]
I did say it's politically infeasible.

Producing 600kg of Pu-238 is entirely technically feasible with current level of technology, as it has already been done when the US and USSR built their stockpiles.

Current level of technology means things we are capable of achieving right now, it does not mean that the pieces literally exist ready to use, unless you genuinely believe that the thousands of satellites orbitting our planet are not part of the current level of technology because they're purpose built without using off-the-shelf parts.