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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

(www.theatlantic.com)
248 points paulpauper | 12 comments | 25 Jun 25 17:14 UTC | HN request time: 0.872s | source | bottom
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strict9 ◴[25 Jun 25 17:54 UTC] No.44380047[source]▶
>Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey.

Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 2009 or so. Average age of parents is increasing. Teen pregnancy on a long and rapid decline.

All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out.

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JumpCrisscross ◴[25 Jun 25 22:14 UTC] No.44382284[source]▶
It's lead.

Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2].

Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old.

We're around 40 years from the last of the high-lead children. 17 years ago is the late 2000s.

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10406...

[2] https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP7932

[3] https://kagi.com/assistant/d2c6fdd5-73dd-4952-ae40-1f36aef1e...

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1. PartiallyTyped ◴[25 Jun 25 22:36 UTC] No.44382399[source]▶
Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?
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2. JumpCrisscross ◴[25 Jun 25 22:40 UTC] No.44382435[source]▶
> Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

More of a pet theory, but voters born between 1950 and 1980, boomers and Gen X, have had a well-documented set of policy preferences.

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3. ivape ◴[25 Jun 25 22:45 UTC] No.44382470[source]▶
What if I told you voters born between nnnn-yyyy had a set of policy preferences?
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4. kayodelycaon ◴[25 Jun 25 22:47 UTC] No.44382494[source]▶
No. You can’t blame lead. There is zero justification for making the average person less responsible for their own worldview and choices in leadership.
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5. kayodelycaon ◴[25 Jun 25 22:52 UTC] No.44382531{3}[source]▶
There’s supposedly a cycle of attitude between generations. If your parents are X, you want to be Y. If your parents are Y, you want to be Z. If your parents are Z, you want to be X
6. jdminhbg ◴[25 Jun 25 23:08 UTC] No.44382642[source]▶
Boomers were essentially statistically indistinguishable from Millennials in the 2024 presidential election: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-generations-voted-trump-...
7. potato3732842 ◴[25 Jun 25 23:52 UTC] No.44382897[source]▶
I don't think it shifts the red blue much which is probably what you're getting at.

I think it absolutely affects the quality of politicians we get though. The best that a given generation can offer is probably lower if that generation huffed a lot of lead gas. So as they age out and younger people hit peak career and fill those roles things will probably improve a bit.

8. krapp ◴[25 Jun 25 23:52 UTC] No.44382900[source]▶
No. Much of the American electoral landscape is still shaped by the systemic remnants of slavery, reconstruction and segregation, and the post-Trump landscape by the cultural trauma of having elected a black president.
9. krapp ◴[25 Jun 25 23:53 UTC] No.44382910[source]▶
No. Much of the American electoral landscape is still shaped by the systemic remnants of slavery, reconstruction and segregation, and the post-Trump landscape by the cultural trauma of having elected a black president. Although I'm sure all of the lead poisoning didn't help.
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10. vkou ◴[26 Jun 25 01:07 UTC] No.44383313[source]▶
You could, if you wanted to misdiagnose the problem.

You'd have more success blaming COVID inflation and the general public's poor education in economics and lack of understanding why eggs were $3.50/dozen. (Today they are $6.00/dozen)

11. lazyasciiart ◴[26 Jun 25 01:24 UTC] No.44383397[source]▶
Well, that’s the first time I’ve heard anyone explicitly say they don’t want to understand causal factors because it would reduce the ability to tell people they should bootstrap themselves.
12. krapp ◴[26 Jun 25 10:57 UTC] No.44386123[source]▶
i don't know why there are two copies of this comment now, I didn't post it twice.