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First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV

(www.cnn.com)
606 points saikatsg | 1 comments | 08 May 25 16:30 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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comeonbro ◴[08 May 25 17:44 UTC] No.43928978[source]▶
As a record of how likely people considered this outcome:

Prevost was hovering around 1% on Polymarket, and was <0.5% between white smoke and announcement.

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kylehotchkiss ◴[08 May 25 22:44 UTC] No.43932107[source]▶
"people" "Polymarket"

How many non-technical people are on polymarket? That seems like a poor sample size.

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pie_flavor ◴[08 May 25 23:45 UTC] No.43932472[source]▶
One of two things must be true: Either Polymarket's more accurate than you are, or you can make free money.
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1. ookdatnog ◴[09 May 25 07:10 UTC] No.43934494{3}[source]▶
Suppose I gave Provost 5% chance of winning the papal election. Then I would have been more accurate than Polymarket. But I wouldn't call betting on what I perceive as 5% chance of winning "making free money"; from my perspective it would still be a wild risk to bet any significant money on that outcome.