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First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV

(www.cnn.com)
606 points saikatsg | 4 comments | 08 May 25 16:30 UTC | HN request time: 0.772s | source
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comeonbro ◴[08 May 25 17:44 UTC] No.43928978[source]▶
As a record of how likely people considered this outcome:

Prevost was hovering around 1% on Polymarket, and was <0.5% between white smoke and announcement.

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1. kylehotchkiss ◴[08 May 25 22:44 UTC] No.43932107[source]▶
"people" "Polymarket"

How many non-technical people are on polymarket? That seems like a poor sample size.

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2. pie_flavor ◴[08 May 25 23:45 UTC] No.43932472[source]▶
One of two things must be true: Either Polymarket's more accurate than you are, or you can make free money.
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3. handsclean ◴[09 May 25 03:20 UTC] No.43933519[source]▶
It’s not free money, it’s high risk with a net positive expected return. Any significant profit would carry an irresponsible level of risk. Significant profit without significant risk would take many bets, which means sustaining the accuracy advantage over broader subject matter, which means lots of time spent, which means it’s time for money, which is just a job.
4. ookdatnog ◴[09 May 25 07:10 UTC] No.43934494[source]▶
Suppose I gave Provost 5% chance of winning the papal election. Then I would have been more accurate than Polymarket. But I wouldn't call betting on what I perceive as 5% chance of winning "making free money"; from my perspective it would still be a wild risk to bet any significant money on that outcome.