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First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV

(www.cnn.com)
606 points saikatsg | 7 comments | 08 May 25 16:30 UTC | HN request time: 0.884s | source | bottom
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comeonbro ◴[08 May 25 17:44 UTC] No.43928978[source]▶
As a record of how likely people considered this outcome:

Prevost was hovering around 1% on Polymarket, and was <0.5% between white smoke and announcement.

replies(5): >>43929198 #>>43929211 #>>43929981 #>>43930813 #>>43932107 #
1. oytis ◴[08 May 25 17:59 UTC] No.43929211[source]▶
Sounds like an amazing opportunity for insider trading
replies(2): >>43929279 #>>43929299 #
2. Onavo ◴[08 May 25 18:05 UTC] No.43929279[source]▶
Isn't the max profit limited by counterparty liquidity? Polymarket won't pay out anything extra.
3. bowsamic ◴[08 May 25 18:07 UTC] No.43929299[source]▶
I wouldn't be shocked if that's one of the reasons why they sequester
replies(2): >>43930173 #>>43930918 #
4. connicpu ◴[08 May 25 19:14 UTC] No.43930173[source]▶
The sequestering goes back centuries, but it's certainly a reason to keep doing it beyond just removing outside influence once the process begins.
replies(1): >>43938171 #
5. b800h ◴[08 May 25 20:24 UTC] No.43930918[source]▶
There was a horrendous problem with gambling on the election at one point. I believe the most recent episode of "Tasting History with Max Miller" covers this.
replies(1): >>43934271 #
6. desertrider12 ◴[09 May 25 06:17 UTC] No.43934271{3}[source]▶
There was also an interesting article here a month ago about the history of betting on conclaves. https://nodumbideas.com/p/betting-on-the-pope-was-the-origin... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43290892
7. bowsamic ◴[09 May 25 15:49 UTC] No.43938171{3}[source]▶
I'm sure insider gambling also goes back centuries, probably even since before Christ