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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 1 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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xnx ◴[17 Apr 25 17:53 UTC] No.43720164[source]▶
I'll take the "under" on 30 years. Demis Hassabis (who has more credibility than whoever these 3 people are combined) says 5-10 years: https://time.com/7277608/demis-hassabis-interview-time100-20...
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karmakaze ◴[17 Apr 25 18:51 UTC] No.43720736[source]▶
That's in line with Ray Kurzweil sticking to his long-held predictions: 2029 for AGI and 2045 for the singularity.
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1. an0malous ◴[17 Apr 25 20:14 UTC] No.43721703[source]▶
I’m sticking with Kurzweil’s predictions as well, his basic premise of extrapolating from compute scaling has been surprisingly robust.

~2030 is also roughly the Metaculus community consensus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...