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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 3 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.614s | source
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xnx ◴[17 Apr 25 17:53 UTC] No.43720164[source]▶
I'll take the "under" on 30 years. Demis Hassabis (who has more credibility than whoever these 3 people are combined) says 5-10 years: https://time.com/7277608/demis-hassabis-interview-time100-20...
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1. karmakaze ◴[17 Apr 25 18:51 UTC] No.43720736[source]▶
That's in line with Ray Kurzweil sticking to his long-held predictions: 2029 for AGI and 2045 for the singularity.
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2. an0malous ◴[17 Apr 25 20:14 UTC] No.43721703[source]▶
I’m sticking with Kurzweil’s predictions as well, his basic premise of extrapolating from compute scaling has been surprisingly robust.

~2030 is also roughly the Metaculus community consensus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...

3. ac29 ◴[17 Apr 25 20:50 UTC] No.43722083[source]▶
A lot of Kurzweil's predictions are nowhere close to coming correct though.

For example, he thought by 2019 we'd have millions of nanorobots in our blood, fighting disease and improving cognition. As near as I can tell we are not tangibly closer to that than we were when he wrote about it 25 years ago. By 2030, he expected humans to be immortal.