←back to thread

689 points taubek | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

replies(66): >>43633029 #>>43633740 #>>43633979 #>>43634170 #>>43634230 #>>43635003 #>>43635033 #>>43635225 #>>43635278 #>>43635334 #>>43635471 #>>43635491 #>>43635637 #>>43635791 #>>43635923 #>>43635965 #>>43636370 #>>43636516 #>>43636589 #>>43636933 #>>43637091 #>>43637096 #>>43637236 #>>43637388 #>>43637764 #>>43637890 #>>43637962 #>>43638040 #>>43638048 #>>43638164 #>>43638448 #>>43638552 #>>43638604 #>>43638675 #>>43638810 #>>43638985 #>>43639013 #>>43639148 #>>43639294 #>>43639502 #>>43639504 #>>43639511 #>>43639667 #>>43639766 #>>43639770 #>>43639816 #>>43639820 #>>43639966 #>>43640213 #>>43640292 #>>43640451 #>>43641017 #>>43641361 #>>43641971 #>>43642066 #>>43642532 #>>43642662 #>>43642938 #>>43643423 #>>43643596 #>>43643685 #>>43643708 #>>43644078 #>>43646083 #>>43660566 #>>43661419 #
bboygravity ◴[] No.43635637[source]
Except that that future of a big powerful China doesn't exist. Their birth-rate is 1.

Game-over.

replies(2): >>43635806 #>>43636661 #
Izikiel43 ◴[] No.43635806[source]
The USA is also below replacement levels.
replies(2): >>43636409 #>>43641532 #
philg_jr ◴[] No.43636409[source]
Not with immigration.
replies(5): >>43637059 #>>43637644 #>>43637974 #>>43638157 #>>43640831 #
peterfirefly ◴[] No.43637644[source]
That's not necessarily a good thing. Do the New Americans want the same things as the pre-existing ones? Are they as capable? Not just "in a few generations" but here and now? Are they even likely to be as capable "in a few generations"?

If the statistics aren't very wrong, it doesn't seem like a solution.

replies(1): >>43638064 #
marxplank ◴[] No.43638064[source]
Indian Americans make the most money in America, I’m sure immigrants can be capable
replies(1): >>43640130 #
1. horns4lyfe ◴[] No.43640130{3}[source]
“Making the most money” isn’t the same as building a society people want to live in
replies(1): >>43640216 #
2. slt2021 ◴[] No.43640216[source]
by all statistics, it is Americans that make the life in the USA insufferable: corrupt politicians, oligarchs, lobbyists, party leaders, and criminals (the ones that sell drugs and shoot people).

go to any county/state jail and try to find a single H-1B visa holder there... its all home grown foundational Americans, raised on McDonalds and Coke