AI 2027

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?

It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach.

Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).

> or operate heavy machinery

What exactly do you mean by this one?

In large mining operations we already have human assisted teleoperation AI equipment. Was watching one recently where the human got 5 or so push dozers lined up with a (admittedly simple) task of cutting a hill down and then just got them back in line if they ran into anything outside of their training. The push and backup operations along with blade control were done by the AI/dozer itself.

Now, this isn't long term planning, but it is operating in the real world.