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AI 2027

(ai-2027.com)
949 points Tenoke | 11 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0.708s | source | bottom
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ahofmann ◴[03 Apr 25 17:04 UTC] No.43572563[source]▶
Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
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mitthrowaway2 ◴[03 Apr 25 17:22 UTC] No.43572802[source]▶
What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?
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1. kubb ◴[03 Apr 25 17:48 UTC] No.43573086[source]▶
It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach.

Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).

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2. lumenwrites ◴[03 Apr 25 18:03 UTC] No.43573273[source]▶
I'm pretty sure you're wrong for at least 2 of those:

For 3D models, check out blender-mcp:

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1joaowb/claude...

https://old.reddit.com/r/aiwars/comments/1jbsn86/claude_crea...

Also this:

https://old.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1hejglg/tr...

For teaching, I'm using it to learn about tech I'm unfamiliar with every day, it's one of the things it's the most amazing at.

For the things where the tolerance for mistakes is extremely low and the things where human oversight is extremely importamt, you might be right. It won't have to be perfect (just better than an average human) for that to happen, but I'm not sure if it will.

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3. kubb ◴[03 Apr 25 18:22 UTC] No.43573472[source]▶
Just think about the delta of what the LLM does and what a human does, or why can’t the LLM replace the human, e.g. in a game studio.

If it can replace a teacher or an artist in 2027, you’re right and I’m wrong.

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4. esafak ◴[03 Apr 25 21:15 UTC] No.43575522{3}[source]▶
It's already replacing artists; that's why they're up in arms. People don't need stock photographers or graphic designers as much as they used to.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4602944

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5. programd ◴[03 Apr 25 21:44 UTC] No.43575837[source]▶
Does a fighter jet count as "heavy machinery"?

https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-fighter-j...

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6. pixl97 ◴[03 Apr 25 22:18 UTC] No.43576149[source]▶
> or operate heavy machinery

What exactly do you mean by this one?

In large mining operations we already have human assisted teleoperation AI equipment. Was watching one recently where the human got 5 or so push dozers lined up with a (admittedly simple) task of cutting a hill down and then just got them back in line if they ran into anything outside of their training. The push and backup operations along with blade control were done by the AI/dozer itself.

Now, this isn't long term planning, but it is operating in the real world.

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7. kubb ◴[04 Apr 25 07:10 UTC] No.43579182{4}[source]▶
I know that artists don’t like AI, because it’s trained on their stolen work. And yet, AI can’t create a sprite sheet for a 2d game.

This is because it can steal a single artwork but it can’t make a collection of visually consistent assets.

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8. kubb ◴[04 Apr 25 08:06 UTC] No.43579489[source]▶
Yes, when they send unmanned jets to combat.
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9. kubb ◴[04 Apr 25 08:08 UTC] No.43579495[source]▶
Operating an excavator when building a stretch of road. Won’t happen by 2027.
10. Philpax ◴[04 Apr 25 12:28 UTC] No.43581264{3}[source]▶
It's already starting with the drones: https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-future-vision-and-cur...
11. cheevly ◴[04 Apr 25 13:58 UTC] No.43582481{5}[source]▶
Bro what are you even talking about? ControlNet has been able to produce consistent assets for years.

How exactly do you think video models work? Frame to frame coherency has been possible for a long time now. A sprite sheet?! Are you joking me. Literally churning them out with AI since 2023.