Ask HN: Why hasn’t AMD made a viable CUDA alternative?

Nvidia is massively overvalued right now. AI has rocketed them into absolute absurdity, and it's not sustainable. Put aside the actual technology for a second and realize that public image of AI is at rock bottom. Every single time a company puts out AI-generated materials, they receive immense public backlash. That's not going away any time soon and it's only likely to get worse.

Speaking as someone that's not even remotely anti-AI, I wouldn't touch the shit with a 10 foot pole because of how bad the public image is. The moment that capital realizes this, that bubble is going to pop and it's going to pop hard.

Why isn't it sustainable? Their biggest customers all have strong finances and legitimate demand. Google and Facebook would happily run every piece of user generated content through an LLM if they had enough GPUs. Same with Microsoft and every enterprise document.

The VC backed companies and Open AI are more fragile, but they're comparatively small customers.

Lots of people don’t play the stock market or just invest in funds. It seems like just a way of challenging somebody that looks vaguely clever, or calls them out in a “put your money where your mouth is” sense, but actually presents no argument.

Anyway, if you want to short Nvidia you have to know when their bubble is going to pop to get much benefit out of it, right? The market can remain stupid for longer than you can remain solvent or whatever.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/how-to-remove-copilot-from-you...

https://www.tomsguide.com/computing/software/how-disable-cop...

https://www.asurion.com/connect/tech-tips/turn-off-apple-int...

https://www.reddit.com/r/GooglePixel/comments/1aunsyk/how_to...

https://mashable.com/article/how-to-turn-off-gemini-gmail-go...

etc. I know these are anecdotal, but think how odd it is for there to be "how to disable" articles about any tech. I don't remember seeing similar articles about how to remove e.g. the search feature from apps. Some people are definitely against this tech.

.. But how much actual value derives from this?

Anyways you'd need some kind of window of when a stock is going to collapse to short it. Good luck predicting this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2eCWWaCzwQ

For a short, I think you don't need that strong of a window. For an options combination, yes.

But the "real value" would come from making adverts better targeted and more interactive. It's hard to quantity as a person outside of the companies, but the intuition for a positive value is pretty strong.

One frustrating aspect of investing is that confident information is tough to come by. It's my take that if you have any (I personally rarely do), you should act on it. So, when someone claims confidently (e.g. with adjectives that imply confidence) that something's going to happen, then that's better than the default.

I don't have the insight the claimer does; my thought is: "I am jealous. I with I could be that confident about a stock's trajectory. I would act on it."

Lots of very smart people have lost a lot of money by being completely right about the destination, but wrong about the path and how long it will take to get there.

If you make a habit of this and still lose money, then either you statistically were very unlucky, or did not have a history of being right.

Setting an indefinite timeline devalues any claim. You could prove this to yourself using Reductio ad absurdum, or by applying it to various general cases.

They already do this, it's opt-in.

> But the "real value" would come from making adverts better targeted and more interactive.

Is there any evidence to suggest that a transformer would be better at collaborative filtering than the current deep learning system that was custom engineered and built for this?

Amazon are on their third generation of in-house AI chips and Anthropic will be using those chips to train the next generation of Claude.

In other words, their biggest customers are looking for cheaper alternatives and are already succeeding in finding them.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/27/tech/apple-ai-artificial-inte...

HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43518576

I knew things were bad when a friend of my sister was complaining that her father(a building framer) was not able to get a loan for a 500K house, something that his colleagues had been able to get. It took another 6 months before the collapse started to hit and the banks when up.

Timing is hard.

When I have similarly strong opinions, I do act on it because I enjoy seeing how right or wrong I was. Markets are a harsh, expensive teacher. You either learn a trick or two about uncertainty, overconfidence, humility, etc, or you run out of money.

I think you're better at it than you're letting on even if you decided to not play. You already understand the properties of the game.

Basically, its a really good question to ask, because even in the case that the person doesn't have investments because they don't play the stock market, it shows that they are not motivated enough to actually go short the security, which means that they truly aren't that sure.