←back to thread

388 points pseudolus | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
Bukhmanizer ◴[] No.43485838[source]
I’m surprised not many people talk about this, but a big reason corporations are able to do layoffs is just that they’re doing less. At my work we used to have thousands of ideas of small improvements to make things better for our users. Now we have one: AI. It’s not that we’re using AI to make all these small improvements, or even planning on it. We’re just… not doing them. And I don’t think my experience is very unique.
replies(21): >>43486104 #>>43486264 #>>43486456 #>>43487649 #>>43487671 #>>43488414 #>>43488436 #>>43488988 #>>43489201 #>>43489228 #>>43489488 #>>43489997 #>>43490451 #>>43490843 #>>43491273 #>>43491336 #>>43491568 #>>43491660 #>>43492193 #>>43492499 #>>43493656 #
baazaa ◴[] No.43488436[source]
I think people need to get used to the idea that the West is just going backwards in capability. Go watch CGI in a movie theatre and it's worse than 20 years ago, go home to play video games and the new releases are all remasters of 20 year old games because no-one knows how to do anything any more. And these are industries which should be seeing the most progress, things are even worse in hard-tech at Boeing or whatever.

Whenever people see old systems still in production (say things that are over 30 years old) the assumption is that management refused to fund the replacement. But if you look at replacement projects so many of them are such dismal failures that's management's reluctance to engage in fixing stuff is understandable.

From the outside, decline always looks like a choice, because the exact form the decline takes was chosen. The issue is that all the choices are bad.

replies(33): >>43488541 #>>43488644 #>>43488809 #>>43488874 #>>43488894 #>>43488954 #>>43489176 #>>43489496 #>>43489529 #>>43489552 #>>43489570 #>>43489702 #>>43490076 #>>43490205 #>>43490296 #>>43491212 #>>43491465 #>>43491538 #>>43491547 #>>43491626 #>>43491950 #>>43492095 #>>43492352 #>>43492362 #>>43492581 #>>43492773 #>>43492829 #>>43492886 #>>43493251 #>>43493711 #>>43495038 #>>43495649 #>>43495778 #
nisa ◴[] No.43488894[source]
My personal theory is that this is the result of an incompetent management class where no self corrections are happening.

In my work experience I've realized everybody fears honesty in their organization be it big or small.

Customers can't admit the project is failing, so it churns on. Workers/developers want to keep their job and either burn out or adapt and avoid talking about obvious deficits. Management is preoccupied with softening words and avoiding decisions because they lack knowledge of the problem or process.

Additionally there has been a growing pipeline of people that switch directly from university where they've been told to only manage other people and not care about the subject to positions of power where they are helpless and can't admit it.

Even in university, working for the administration I've watched people self congratulation on doing design thinking seminars every other week and working on preserving their job instead of doing useful things while the money for teaching assistants or technical personnel is not there.

I've seen that so often that I think it's almost universal. The result is mediocre broken stuff where everyone pretends everything is fine. Everyone wants to manage, nobody wants to do the work or god forbid improve processes and solve real problems.

I've got some serious ADHD symptoms and as a sysadmin when you fail to deliver it's pretty obvious and I messed up big time more than once and it was always sweet talked, excused, bullshitted away from higher ups.

Something is really off and everyone is telling similar stories about broken processes.

Feels like a collective passivity that captures everything and nobody is willing to admit that something doesn't work. And a huge missallocation of resources.

Not sure how it used to be but I'm pessimistic how this will end.

replies(19): >>43489116 #>>43489450 #>>43489478 #>>43489947 #>>43490245 #>>43490642 #>>43490661 #>>43490818 #>>43491877 #>>43491884 #>>43492061 #>>43492066 #>>43492290 #>>43492737 #>>43493477 #>>43494162 #>>43494326 #>>43495162 #>>43501334 #
roenxi ◴[] No.43490245[source]
> Something is really off and everyone is telling similar stories about broken processes.

There are people out there who are pretty conflict-avoidant by nature, and any group tends to pretty significant levels of cohesion because of it. There are some classic stories out there about when it goes particularly bad and spirals into a bad case of groupthink.

In the economy there are supposed to be some slightly cruel feedback mechanisms where companies (effectively big groups) that get off track are defunded and their resources reallocated to someone more competent. The west has been on a campaign to disable all those feedback mechanisms and let companies just keep trudging on. We've pretty much disabled recessions by this point. A bunch of known-incompetent management teams have been bailed out so they can just keep plodding along destroying value. There is not so much advantage in being honest about competence in this environment, if anything it is a bad thing because it makes it harder to take bailout money with a straight face.

I cite the Silicon Valley Bank collapse as an interesting case study. A looot of companies should have gone bust with that one because they were imprudent with their money. They didn't.

replies(2): >>43491094 #>>43493519 #
bix6 ◴[] No.43493519[source]
Companies should go bankrupt because a trusted bank had a bank run thrust on it by competitors? I don’t agree with that.
replies(2): >>43493753 #>>43501047 #
roenxi ◴[] No.43501047[source]
You can agree with whatever you like. But if your stance is people should be able to just give money to whoever and it all works out in the end then you aren't supporting an environment where management are honest, because they are being supported in being wilfully blind.

They're managing capital. If they get bailed out because they turned out to be completely irresponsible in managing their capital then nobody can claim to be surprised that management tend not to be of the highest standard on any axis.

What is supposed to be the incentive here for appointing competent managers for most companies? It literally doesn't matter. Even company-bankrupting performance will turn a profit once the effects of money printing are factored in.

replies(1): >>43523758 #
1. bix6 ◴[] No.43523758{3}[source]
Managing capital is a vital part of any business but a small team of 5 does not have the same resources or requirements as a team of 500 or 5000.

SVB has been a vital supporter of startups for decades. Why would a resource constrained startup spend time worried about it? Money goes in and out the bank, great, that’s all most startups should need to worry about.

replies(1): >>43529282 #
2. roenxi ◴[] No.43529282[source]
If you support a culture where people look at $250,000 and don't care what happens to it, then I hope you aren't surprised when it turns out the management class are serially incompetent. Their literal responsibility is to look at large amounts of capital and decide what happens to it.

The startups had a strategy of pooling their money - their huge amount of money, as it turns out - into a fund run by people who couldn't keep a bank solvent. If you want to shield the people doing that from consequences then, frankly, you don't have an interest in running a high-integrity system geared to competence. Because there need to be direct and painful consequences to an action that stupid. Oh there are only 5 of them! Well there is only 1 of me and I can tell you how dumb they were in isolation. The only reason to act this way and keep all the eggs in one high-risk basket is because of an assumption that the government will come in and conduct bailouts if any risk eventuates. IE, a management class that doesn't ever expect to succeed on their own merits. Although since the bailouts did happen that suggests that sticking to a dumb strategy is what winners should do.

The entire capital management system here is out of control.