Most active commenters
  • sph(3)
  • jeffbee(3)
  • v3ss0n(3)

←back to thread

7.7 magnitude earthquake hits Southeast Asia, affecting Myanmar and Thailand

(twitter.com)
275 points testrun | 13 comments | 28 Mar 25 09:32 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
Show context
v3ss0n ◴[28 Mar 25 11:40 UTC] No.43504126[source]▶
I am Myanmar and reporting from Bangkok.

I was upstairs, at third floor and was going down to have lunch and it shook whole house. At first I thought I am having nausea due to not having any food yet then thing starts to shake violently almost knocked me off stairs . And glasses started to rumble.

A construction in Pathunam collapsed.

Some house of friends of mine in Mandalay - Myanmar collapsed. One girl managed to get out in time.

One construction in Mandalay collapsed - 2 died.

Historic Mandalay Palace wall and entrance collapsed .

Airport in naypyitaw collapsed, there are report of many airport workers died.

Bridges collapsed, one of the longest standing historic bridges of Myanmar - Sagaing Bridge collapsed.

One other bridge in Mandalay brings down two cars with it, casualties unknown.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18bsATAEKS/

Many Junta gov buildings collapsed

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BYV644DmY/

replies(10): >>43504251 #>>43504292 #>>43504298 #>>43504317 #>>43504890 #>>43504908 #>>43505150 #>>43507149 #>>43508689 #>>43529195 #
baq ◴[28 Mar 25 11:56 UTC] No.43504251[source]▶
shakemap: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s...

Mandalay looks to be almost exactly in the center of the worst of it...

replies(4): >>43504820 #>>43505074 #>>43507586 #>>43508223 #
brenainn ◴[28 Mar 25 13:17 UTC] No.43505074[source]▶
and PAGER: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s...
replies(1): >>43505406 #
baq ◴[28 Mar 25 13:48 UTC] No.43505406{3}[source]▶
> Estimated economic losses are 6-70% GDP of Burma.

6-70% holy crap what a range.

replies(1): >>43506013 #
simonebrunozzi ◴[28 Mar 25 14:40 UTC] No.43506013{4}[source]▶
Probably meant 60-70%
replies(4): >>43506172 #>>43506609 #>>43506770 #>>43507746 #
1. sph ◴[28 Mar 25 15:25 UTC] No.43506609{5}[source]▶
60-70% loss in GDP would mean the literal end of the country, it's a ludicrously large figure no one could ever rebuild from. This is a 7.7 earthquake; it probably is 6–7% GBP which is still significant.
replies(4): >>43506764 #>>43507308 #>>43507367 #>>43611151 #
2. ◴[28 Mar 25 15:38 UTC] No.43506764[source]▶
3. jeffbee ◴[28 Mar 25 16:29 UTC] No.43507308[source]▶
60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
replies(3): >>43507419 #>>43507491 #>>43511520 #
4. quickthrowman ◴[28 Mar 25 16:36 UTC] No.43507367[source]▶
It’s only $40B, Myanmar is exceptionally poor. For example, AAPL’s net profit is higher than Myanmar’s GDP.

I’m pretty sure China can dig around in their couch cushions and help them out, the military junta is heavily reliant on China already.

Probably the ‘shadow GDP’ of Myanmar from heroin and scam call centers is higher than the official GDP, but that’s pure speculation on my part.

replies(1): >>43507559 #
5. lucianbr ◴[28 Mar 25 16:40 UTC] No.43507419[source]▶
That's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that.

Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots.

It sounds pretty near to impossible.

These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it.

How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?

replies(1): >>43507745 #
6. quesera ◴[28 Mar 25 16:47 UTC] No.43507491[source]▶
Mathematically valid, but...

If Myanmar had a stable and reliably growing economy, the world would be a different place.

Turning Myanmar into a country with a stable economy that could grow at 5% annually would be worthy of a Nobel Prize in economics.

Practically, recovery costs in the neighborhood of 60% of Myanmar's GDP represents many decades of development. Or enormous foreign aid from China. I'm not sure how valuable Myanmar is to China though.

replies(1): >>43513460 #
7. miohtama ◴[28 Mar 25 16:53 UTC] No.43507559[source]▶
Not Myarmar, but in Cambodia scams are soon or already larger business than official GDP

https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/laos-and-cambodia-dont-inclu...

8. jeffbee ◴[28 Mar 25 17:06 UTC] No.43507745{3}[source]▶
I'm not sure about any of these questions, I am just pointing out how wrong it is to suggest that a -60% economic setback is historically fatal. The economy of Myanmar increased 8-fold in the last 30 years.
9. sph ◴[29 Mar 25 00:29 UTC] No.43511520[source]▶
60% loss in GDP is roughly 60% loss in population. You don't recoup citizens in 10 years with 5% growth.
replies(1): >>43512436 #
10. jeffbee ◴[29 Mar 25 03:19 UTC] No.43512436{3}[source]▶
You're suggesting this earthquake killed thirty million people?
replies(1): >>43515802 #
11. v3ss0n ◴[29 Mar 25 07:10 UTC] No.43513460{3}[source]▶
We almost had that chance back in 2010-2020.. only if coup and COVID didn't happened..
12. sph ◴[29 Mar 25 14:22 UTC] No.43515802{4}[source]▶
No i'm suggesting that the earthquake didn't kill that many people, so it cannot have lost 60% GDP which makes no sense whatsoever.
13. v3ss0n ◴[07 Apr 25 13:26 UTC] No.43611151[source]▶
it is possbile , we are at literal end of the country with Junta bombing whatever they want and Revolution forces fighting to save the country .