←back to thread

2127 points bakugo | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
TriangleEdge ◴[] No.43163502[source]
This AI race is happening so fast. Seems like it to me anyway. As a software developer/engineer I am worried about my job prospects.. time will tell. I am wondering what will happen to the west coast housing bubbles once software engineers lose their high price tags. I guess the next wave of knowledge workers will move in and take their place?
replies(7): >>43163516 #>>43163825 #>>43164440 #>>43164873 #>>43164965 #>>43168669 #>>43172150 #
throw234234234 ◴[] No.43164440[source]
It has the potential to effect a lot more than just SV/The West Coast - in fact SV may be one of the only areas who have some silver lining with AI development. I think these models have a chance to disrupt employment in the industry globally. Ironically it may be only SWE's and a few other industries (writing, graphic design, etc) that truly change. You can see they and other AI labs are targeting SWEs in particular - just look at the announcement "Claude 3.7 and Code" - very little mention of any other domains on their announcement posts.

For people who aren't in SV for whatever reason and haven't seen the really high pay associated with being there - SWE is just a standard job often stressful with lots of learning required ongoing. The pain/anxiety of being disrupted is even higher then since having high disposable income to invest/save would of been less likely. Software to them would of been a job with comparable pay's to other jobs in the area; often requiring you to be degree qualified as well - anecdotally many I know got into it for the love; not the money.

Who would of thought the first job being automated by AI would be software itself? Not labor, or self driving cars. Other industries either seem to have hit dead ends, or had other barriers (regulation, closed knowledge, etc) that make it harder to do. SWE's have set an example to other industries - don't let AI in or keep it in-house as long as possible. Be closed source in other words. Seems ironic in hindsight.

replies(1): >>43165450 #
throw83288 ◴[] No.43165450[source]
What do you even do then as a student? I've asked this dozens of times with zero practical answers at all. Frankly I've become entirely numb to it all.
replies(2): >>43165883 #>>43171746 #
throw234234234 ◴[] No.43165883[source]
Be glad that you are empowered to pivot - I'm making the assumption you are still young being a student. In a disrupted industry you either want to be young (time to change out of it) or old (50+) - can retire with enough savings. The middle age people (say 15-25 years in the industry; your 35-50 yr olds) are most in trouble depending on the domain they are in. For all the "friendly" marketing IMO they are targeting tech jobs in general - for many people if it wasn't for tech/coding/etc they would never need to use an LLM at all. Anthrophic's recent stats as to who uses their products are telling - its mostly code code code.

The real answer is either to pivot to a domain where the computer use/coding skills are secondary (i.e. you need the knowledge but it isn't primary to the role) or move to an industry which isn't very exposed to AI either due to natural protections (e.g. trades) or artifical ones (e.g regulation/oligopolies colluding to prevent knowledge leaking to AI). May not be a popular comment on this platform - I would love to be wrong.

replies(1): >>43165980 #
throw83288 ◴[] No.43165980[source]
Not enough resources to get another bachelors, and a masters is probably practically worthless for a pivot. I would have to throw away the past 10 years of my life, start from scratch, with zero ideas for any real skill-developing projects since I'm not interested at all. Probably a completely non-viable candidate in anything I would choose. Maybe only Robotics would work, and that's probably going to be solved quickly because:

You assume nothing LLMs do are actually generalization. Once Field X is eaten the labs will pivot and use the generalization skills developed to blow out Field Y to make the next earnings report. I think at this current 10x/yr capability curve (Read: 2 years -> 100x 4 years -> 10000x) I'll get screwed no matter what is chosen. Especially the ones in proximity to computing, which makes anything in which coding is secondary fruitless. Regulation is a paper wall and oligopolies will want to optimize as much as any firm. Trades are already saturating.

This is why I feel completely numb about this, I seriously think there is nothing I can do now. I just chose wrong because I was interested in the wrong thing.

replies(2): >>43167975 #>>43169650 #
1. fragmede ◴[] No.43169650{5}[source]
If you're taking a really high level look at the whole problem, you're zooming too far out, and missing the trees themselves. You chose the wrong parents to be born to, but so did most of us. You were interested in what you were interested in. You didn't ask what's the right thing to be interested in, because there's no right answer to that. What you've got is a good head on your shoulders, and the youth to be able to chase dreams. Yeah it's scary. In the 90's outsourcing was going to be the end of lucrative programming jobs in the US. There's always going to be a reason to be scared. Sometimes it's valid, sometimes the sky is falling because aliens are coming, and it turns out to be a weather balloon.

You can definitely succumb to the fear. It sounds like you have. But courage isn't the absence of fear, it's what you do in the face of it. Are you going to let that fear paralyze you into inaction? Just not do anything other than post about being scared to the Internet? Or, having identified that fear, are you gonna wrestle it down to the ground and either choose to retrain into anything else and start from near zero, but it'll be something not programming that you believe isn't right about to be automated away, or dive in deeper, and get a masters in AI and learn all of the math behind LLMs and be an ML expert that trains the AI. That jobs not going away, there's still a ton of techniques to be discovered/invented and all of the niches to be discovered. Fine-tuning an existing LLM to be better at some niche is gonna be hot for a while.

You're lucky, you're in a position to be able to go for a masters, even if you don't choose that route. Others with a similar doomer mindset have it worse, being too old and not in a position to them consider doing a masters.

Face the fear and look into the future with eyes wide open. Decide to go into chicken farming or nursing or firefighter or aircraft mechanic or mortician or locksmith or beekeeping or actuary.