Grok 3: Another win for the bitter lesson

It looks like neural network based software is to surpass humans in intelligence in every task in the forseeable future.

If one country moves along this direction faster than the others, no country will stand a chance to compete with them militarily or economically.

> no country will stand a chance to compete with them militarily or economically.

It really depends on how they go about it. It can easily instead end up with lots of people without work, no social security and disillusioned with the country. Instead of being economically great, the country may end up fighting uprisings and sabotage.

How so? First of all, assuming ASI is developed, as it stands now, it will be owned by a private corporation, not a nation state.

ASI also will not be magic. Like what exactly would it be doing that enables the country to subject the others? Develop new weapons? We already have the capability to destroy earth. Actually come to think of it, if ASI is an existential threat to other nations, maybe the rational action would be to nuke whichever country develops it first. To safe the world.

You see what I am saying? There is such a thing as the real world with real constraints.

If this is true, then shouldn't we expect an economic "bump" from NN/LLMs/AI as they are today?

I have not noticed companies or colleagues 10x'ing (hell, or even 1.5x'ing) their productivity from these tools. What am I missing?

What do your colleagues do?

I see people getting replaced by AI left and right.

Translators, illustrators, voice over artists, data researchers, photographers, models, writers, personal assistants, drivers, programmers ...

There's an implicit assumption here that if a colleague did figure out how to (e.g.) 10x their output with new tools, the employer would capture all (e.g.) 10x of that increased productivity.