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Kelly Can't Fail

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389 points jmount | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.215s | source
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JohnMakin ◴[] No.42467834[source]
Kelly criterion is one of my favorite game theory concepts that is used heavily in bankroll management of professional gamblers, particularly poker players. It is a good way to help someone understand how you can manage your finances and stakes in a way that allows you to climb steadily forward without risking too much or any ruin, but is frequently misapplied in that space. The problem is kelly deals with binary results, and often situations in which this is applied where the results are not binary (a criteria for applying this) you can see skewed results that look almost right but not quite so, depending on how you view the math
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peter_retief ◴[] No.42468559[source]
Could this work with roulette betting on color? Seems like you could spend a lot of time not winning or losing
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plorkyeran ◴[] No.42468729[source]
Roulette results are uncorrelated and you have the exact same chance of winning each time, so the Kelly criterion isn’t applicable. Betting on a color has a negative edge and you don’t have the option of taking the house’s side, so it just tells you the obvious thing that you should bet zero.
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Tepix ◴[] No.42469476[source]
What makes 0 better than the other numbers?
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1. ◴[] No.42474719[source]